2023 AFL Round 22 Betting Predictions
Round 22 begins at the MCG as the Pies host the desperate Geelong Cats on Friday night footy.
Collingwood Magpies (1st) vs Geelong Cats (9th)
The Pies are coming off a rare 2-game losing streak. They've been taken down by the Hawks 105-73 and previously lost against the Blues. With Nick Daicos out for 6 weeks, the Pies will need to stand up on Friday night to potentially seal up the minor premiership.
The Cats kept their top 8 hopes alive with a huge 97-85 win over the Power at the Cattery. They're now just 2 pts behind 8th position so an upset on Friday night will give them a good chance of featuring in September. They'd also love to get revenge for their Round 1 loss against the Pies.
The Daicos injury is a tough one for the Pies and Geelong should take advantage. Geelong should also be more desperate in terms of finals positioning and have a good record against the Pies lately.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the MCG. Geelong are 14-4 at the MCG since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Cats are 6-2 against the Magpies since 2018.
Best Bet
North Melbourne Kangaroos (17th) vs Essendon Bombers (12th)
The Roos are coming off another loss as they went down to the Dees 103-71. However, they did lead at half-time so they'll look to start well against the Bombers to potentially cause a boilover.
The Bombers were incredibly lucky to escape with the 4 pts against the Eagles last week in the 73-72. Kyle Langford kicked his 5th goal with 1 minute remaining to keep the Bombers finals hopes alive.
In the Round 12 matchup, these two sides totalled 204 pts and friendly conditions under the roof should see another high-scoring affair.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 3-24 at this venue since 2021. Essendon are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Docklands.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Bombers are 8-0 against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
Sydney Swans (10th) vs Gold Coast Suns (14th)
The Swans outlasted the Giants in the Sydney derby for their 4th straight victory. They now sit 10th on the ladder and just 1 win away from the top 8. With a tough run home, this is simply a must-win game.
The Suns are coming off an 89-61 loss against the Crows in Adelaide. It continued their inconsistent results of late. However, they do play well at the SCG and Touk Miller is back from suspension.
While the Suns have a good record in Sydney, their interstate record this year is poor and their season is over. The Swans are desperate to make the finals and that should be the difference.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 5-4 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at the SCG. Gold Coast are 2-0 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Suns are 4-2 against the Swans since 2018.
Best Bet
Brisbane Lions (3rd) vs Adelaide Crows (11th)
The Lions just beat the Dockers 77-74 in Perth last week and that keeps their hopes of a top-2 finish alive. They love playing at the Gabba with 10 straight wins and the trend should continue on Saturday.
The Crows have won back-to-back games against the Suns and Power. However, winning away from Adelaide has been an issue this season (1-7 interstate) and they'll need to find something to knock off the Lions in Brisbane.
The Over is 11-4 at the Gabba with the Lions involved and both sides can score 100+ pts on their day.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 10-0 in their last 10 games at the Gabba. Adelaide have lost 3 in a row since 2019.
Head to Head Record
The Lions are 4-1 against the Crows in the last 5.
Best Bet
Carlton Blues (5th) vs Melbourne Demons (2nd)
The Blues are flying after 7 straight wins and they've now jumped to 5th on the ladder. They come off a 73-54 win over the Saints and a victory over the Dees could seal up the Blues first finals series since 2013.
The Dees started slowly against the Roos last week but prevailed 103-71 in the end. They've now won 5 straight games and will be desperate to defend 2nd position on the ladder. However, a season-ending injury to Petty is a blow for their forward line.
Melbourne will likely get Oliver back in the midfield and Curnow has a tough matchup against the likes of Lever and May. The Dees also have the wood over Carlton at the moment.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 4-6 in their last 10 games at the MCG. Melbourne are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Demons are 5-0 against the Blues in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
West Coast Eagles (18th) vs Fremantle Dockers (15th)
The Eagles are in decent form at the moment after 1 pt loss against the Bombers and a 5 pt win over the Roos. This will be their unofficial Grand Final against the Dockers so expect them to bring the pressure.
The Dockers are now playing for pride after a heartbreaking 3 pt loss against the Lions. It's been a disappointing season but they would love to get some confidence back in the derby.
The derby should be a tough battle as usual and both sides aren't the highest scoring in the league. So I like the chances of the Under, which is 7-1 at Optus.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. Fremantle are 4-6 in their last 10 games at Perth Stadium.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Eagles are 6-4 against the Dockers
Best Bet
Hawthorn Hawks (16th) vs Western Bulldogs (6th)
The Hawks produced arguably the upset of the season as they crushed the Pies 105-73. It should give their young side a lot of confidence in the last 3 games of the season and they don't mind playing in Tassie.
The Dogs thrashed the Tigers on Friday night and can likely seal up a finals spot with a win on Sunday. The Bont is coming off another dominant performance but it will be interesting to see who the Hawks send tagger Finn Maginness to.
It's hard to back against a close game for the Hawks after last week. If they can stop the Bont and Sicily controls the game, they should be a chance of getting within 2 goals.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn are 2-0 at the UTAS Stadium since 2021. The Bulldogs are 3-5 in their history.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs are 4-1 against the Hawks in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
St Kilda Saints (7th) vs Richmond Tigers (13th)
The Saints are coming off a tough loss against the Blues last week 73-54. They're still in the top 8 at this stage but need to win the majority of their last 3 games to make the finals.
The Tigers are looking to break a 2 game-losing streak on Sunday. The concern at the moment is their backline which has conceded an average of 128 pts in their last 2. But they should get Dusty and Cotchin back from a rest.
Richmond really struggles at Marvel with just 1 win in their last 7 and they're playing a lot of youth. So look for the Saints to get the job done.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Richmond are 2-6 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 6-3 against the Saints since 2018.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide Power (4th) vs GWS Giants (8th)
The Power are having a tough stretch at the moment after 4 straight losses. They should still finish in the top 4 but they need to find some winning momentum before the finals.
The Giants winning streak ended in the Sydney derby last weekend. They're still in the top 8 but there are plenty of sides behind them. However, they did beat the Crows at this venue in Round 18 so that will give them confidence of an upset.
GWS don't mind playing away from Sydney as they're 5-0 ATS. Port are giving up plenty of points so look for the Giants to keep it close.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval. GWS are 3-1 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Power hold a 3-2 record against the Giants.
Best Bet
