2023 AFL Round 19 Betting Predictions
Round 19 begins with an expected fierce top 8 battle between the Bombers and Bulldogs at Marvel on Friday night footy.
Essendon Bombers (8th) vs Western Bulldogs (7th)
The Bombers will be seeking a response on Friday night after getting smashed by the Cats last week, 122-45. The positive news is they do have a good record at Marvel, having won 4 straight and 8 of their last 9. If Merrett and Parish get plenty of the ball in the midfield then they'll be a chance.
The Dogs have lost back-to-back games so their spot in the top 8 is on the line this Friday. Last week, they lost against the Swans 78-76 and previously went down to the Pies at this venue 89-77.
Essendon play well at Marvel with 8 wins in their last 9 and the Dogs have lost their last 5 night games. Dons to cover.
Stadium Record
Essendon are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue. The Bulldogs are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Docklands.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs are 5-1 against the Bombers since 2018.
Best Bet
Richmond Tigers (11th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (16th)
The Tigers are back from a trip to Perth as they accounted for the Eagles 98-60. This is another soft matchup for Richmond and it's a must-win if they want to play finals. They're in great form at the moment after 5 wins in their last 6 and will be heavily favoured in this matchup.
The Hawks got a much-needed win last week as they beat the Roos 88-40. After losing 3 straight without Sicily, he was back last week and their defence is a lot better. So that will be key against the Tigers.
There's a lot to play for at Richmond in terms of finals and their class should be too hard for the young Hawks to handle.
Stadium Record
Richmond are 19-13 at the MCG since 2021. Hawthorn are 3-7 in their last 10 games at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 3-1 (1 draw) against the Hawks in the last 5.
Best Bet
Carlton Blues (10th) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)
The Blues ended the Power's winning streak with a huge 122-72 victory last Saturday. The win was soured by a knee injury to Harry McKay but that should open up Charle Curnow against the lowly Eagles.
The Eagles travel to Melbourne as massive underdogs against the Blues. They haven't won since Round 2 but have got some of their key veterans back lately. Although, McGovern is out again and that hurts their backline against an in-form Blues side.
This could get ugly for the Eagles as the Blues just beat a top 8 side by 50 pts. Carlton also smashed the Eagles by 100+ pts in Perth earlier this season and West Coast have lost their last 6 away games by 60+.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. West Coast are 1-3 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Eagles are 3-2 against the Blues in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Brisbane Lions (3rd) vs Geelong Cats (5th)
The Lions will be disappointed after last week's 1 pt loss at the MCG. However, they love playing at the Gabba with an 8-0 record this season. They face a massive challenge against the rebounding Cats but will start as favourites.
The Cats are back in the race for the top 4 after 3 wins and a draw in their last 4. They thrashed the Bombers last week and have kicked 120+ pts in their last 2 at the Cattery. So it will be interesting to see if that trend can continue in Brisbane.
Geelong seems to matchup well with the Lions and I think they can challenge them at the Gabba.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 9-1 in their last 10 games at the Gabba. Geelong have a strong 7-3 record at this venue in their last 10.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Cats have won 4 games against the Lions.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide Power (2nd) vs Collingwood Magpies (1st)
The Power's winning run is over after a disappointing 50 pt loss against the Blues. They now face the Pies in the top-of-the-table clash and injuries to key players could make it tough.
The Pies are looking to extend their winning streak to 4 games as they travel to Adelaide for the 2nd time this season. They crushed the Dockers 133-67 last week and Taylor Adams starred before his 200th game on Saturday.
The top-of-the-table clash should be a cracker but the Power are coming off a 50 pt loss and have some injuries. Meanwhile, the Pies love playing in Adelaide and they look good value to win this.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval. Collingwood are 4-0 at the Adelaide Oval since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Magpies are 4-3 against the Power since 2018.
Best Bet
Fremantle Dockers (15th) vs Sydney Swans (14th)
The Dockers slim chances of making the finals will rest on this clash against Sydney. They've now lost their last 3 games and their scoring woes have returned. They've been held under 74 pts in those 3 defeats.
The Swans are coming off a huge win over the Dogs on Thursday night 78-76. They travel to Perth with still hopes of making the top 8 and this could be Buddy's last AFL game in his home state. So they'll be fired up to get another win.
This should be a low-scoring contest between these two desperate sides so I like the Under.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. Sydney are 2-1 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Dockers are 3-2 against the Swans in the last 5.
Best Bet
GWS Giants (9th) vs Gold Coast Suns (13th)
The Giants march towards the top 8 continues to build momentum after 5 straight wins. Their win over the Crows in Adelaide last week without Tom Green was impressive. They don't have a great record in Canberra but this is the perfect time to end the drought.
The Suns played well last week to beat the Saints 77-51 and they ended a 2-game losing streak. They can still make the finals so this is a key matchup for their hopes.
Based on form, it's hard to go past the Giants. They enjoy playing the Suns as well with 5 wins in the last 6 meetings.
Stadium Record
Since 2021, GWS have a 0-7 record at this venue. Gold Coast are 1-2 in their history.
Head to Head Record
The Giants are 5-1 against the Suns since 2018.
Best Bet
Greater Western Sydney -10.5 = $1.90
Melbourne Demons (4th) vs Adelaide Crows (12th)
The Dees pulled off one of the best comebacks of the season as they beat the Lions 105-104. So they'll be eager to make it 3 straight wins when they host the Crows at the MCG.
The Crows have dropped to 12th after back-to-back defeats. They also lost at home last week against the Giants, which has been their strong suit this season. They haven't travelled well in 2023 so they'll need to find a way.
Christian Petracca has moved forward in the last 2 games and has kicked 4 goals in both. So he looks like a safe bet to kick 3+ as the Crows likely won't have a matchup.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 22-9 at this venue since 2021. Adelaide are 0-3 at the MCG since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Demons are 5-2 against the Crows
Best Bet
Christian Petracca 3+ Goals = $1.65
St Kilda Saints (6th) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (17th)
The Saints are struggling at the moment after just 1 win in their last 5. However, they're still 6th on the ladder and get a soft matchup against the struggling Roos.
The Roos are looking to end a 15-game losing streak this week. They kicked just 40 pts against the Hawks last week so it's hard to see them challenging the finals-bound Saints.
North have lost 6 of their last 7 by 1-39 at this venue and the Saints haven't thrashed a side for a while.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 4-6 in their last 10 games at Docklands. North Melbourne are 3-23 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Saints are 3-2 against the Kangaroos in the last 5.
Best Bet
