2023 AFL Round 18 Betting Predictions
Round 18 starts with the Swans looking to keep their season alive against the Western Bulldogs on Thursday night footy at the SCG.
Sydney Swans (15th) vs Western Bulldogs (7th)
The Swans face a must-win clash on Thursday night at the SCG. They're coming off a close loss against the Tigers in Richmond and previously drew with the Cats at this ground. If they can replicate that performance against the Cats and convert in front of goals, they can get the job done. However, their clearance work will need to improve against the Dogs and Chad Warner is a big out in that department.
The Dogs are coming off a tough loss against the Pies on Friday night footy 89-77. This is a big game for their top 4 hopes and their forward line is in good enough form to trouble the Swans backline. Naughton and Weightman both kicked 4 goals last week.
Sydney aren't in great form and will be without key players Chad Warner and Jake Lloyd. The Dogs are also 4-1 in their last 5 away games and should be able to dominate the clearances in this matchup.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 19-8 at the SCG since 2021. The Bulldogs are 3-3 in their last 6.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs are 3-2 against the Swans in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Melbourne Demons (4th) vs Brisbane Lions (3rd)
The Dees ended a 2-game losing streak after a 79-58 win over the Saints last week. They're now 8-1 in Melbourne this season and will be eager to avenge their finals loss against the Lions last year. There's still no Oliver in the midfield and Petrecca played more forward last week.
The Lions got the job done in an easy win over the Eagles last week, making it 4 wins on the trot. They love playing at the Gabba but have struggled away from Brisbane. Highlighted by the fact they lost to the Hawks in their last clash at the MCG.
This should be a tough and low-scoring Friday night battle. The Under is also 8-0 in the Dees last 8 games and their backline should be able to stop the Lions scoring ability.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 6-4 in their last 10 games at the MCG. Brisbane are 1-4 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Demons are 5-4 against the Lions.
Best Bet
Collingwood Magpies (1st) vs Fremantle Dockers (14th)
The Pies are looking for a 4th straight win at the MCG on Saturday. They put away the Dogs on Friday night footy last week as the Daicos brothers were excellent once again. Jamie Elliott also stood up without Mikochek with 4 goals.
The Dockers are out of form at the moment after 4 defeats in their last 5 games. They were smashed by the Blues at home last week and have also lost Caleb Serong to suspension. So it's hard to see them challenging the Pies at the moment.
Freo are struggling to kick a score and that likely won't improve here. The Under is 6-1 in the Pies last 7 at the G as well.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 8-2 in their last 10 games at the MCG. Fremantle are 2-3 at the MCG since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Magpies are 4-3 against the Dockers since 2018.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Suns (13th) vs St Kilda Saints (6th)
The Suns have sacked coach Stuart Dew during the week and their players will be looking to respond on the field. Over the last 2 weeks, they have played the 2 best teams in the AFL so it's been a tough run. They generally have a good record at home but haven't had much success against the Saints.
The Saints challenged the Dees last week but ultimately, injuries were the story. They've lost Max King for the season and Ross/Billings are out for a month. But with a top-four spot up for grabs, they need to win this clash against a bottom 8 side.
While the Suns should respond after Dew's sacking, the Saints have an excellent record on the GC against the Suns so I like them to cover.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. St Kilda are 4-1 in their last 5.
Head to Head Record
The Saints are looking for a 9th straight win over the Suns.
Best Bet
Carlton Blues (11th) vs Port Adelaide Power (2nd)
The Blues are back in form after 3 straight wins and their hopes of making finals are back on. However, the Power will much tougher challenge compared to the Dockers/Hawks/Suns.
The Power continued their winning ways with a 106-73 victory over the Suns and Dixon/Finlayson celebrated their milestones. They have an excellent record at Marvel and have the wood over the Blues in the last few years.
Good conditions under the roof should see a high-scoring affair in this matchup.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Docklands. Port are looking for a 10th straight win at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Power are 4-1 against the Blues in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats (8th) vs Essendon Bombers (5th)
The Cats are back in the top 8 after an easy win over the Roos at this venue. They're back at home in Round 18 as they host the Bombers. They've already beaten them this season, 132-104 as Tom Hawkins kicked a bag at the MCG.
The Bombers are coming off a massive win over the Crows 115-97 and Zach Merrett was inspirational as skipper. This will be a tough challenge at the Cattery but they'll be keen to improve on their last performance against the Cats.
This should be a close game where the Bombers can get within 4 goals in the end.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 9-1 in their last 10 games at Kardinia Park. Essendon are 1-1 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Cats are 5-1 against the Bombers since 2018.
Best Bet
Adelaide Crows (9th) vs GWS Giants (10th)
The Crows will be eager to respond after a loss against the Bombers in Melbourne last week. However, they have enjoyed playing in Adelaide this season with a 7-2 record.
The Giants are on fire after 4 straight wins and this is a key matchup for their chances of making the top 8. They did beat the Crows in Round 1 and have a decent record in Adelaide, so they could pull off another upset.
Green was held in check last week but he collected 37 disposals against the Crows last time and has beaten 30+ in 3 of his last 5 games.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval. GWS are 2-1 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the head-to-head is squared at 2-2 (1 draw).
Best Bet
Tom Green 30+ Disposals = $1.80
North Melbourne Kangaroos (17th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (16th)
The Roos are coming off another loss as they went down to the Cats 125-63. However, it was great to see Boomer Harvey's son debut and it's all about their youth at the moment. This is a winnable game for the Roos but it's obviously hard to trust them at the moment.
The Hawks will be looking to end a 3-game losing streak when they meet the Roos. They did win the previous meeting this season 80-61 and if the likes of Mitch Lewis can fire, they should win this.
Hawthorn won the last meeting by 19 and their forward line should be tough to handle.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue. Hawthorn are 3-7 in their last 10 games at Docklands.
Head to Head Record
In the last 8, the Hawks are 5-3 against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
West Coast Eagles (18th) vs Richmond Tigers (12th)
The Eagles are back at home this weekend and will look to replicate their performance against the Saints in Round 16. They lost 85-77 on that occasion but it was an improvement as they've lost by 80+ pts in 3 of their last 4.
The Tigers kept their hopes of finals alive with a 88-75 win over the Swans. While a 3-week suspension for Nankervis is a big blow for their ruck department. They should have no problems with beating the Eagles.
Richmond will be looking for a percentage boost and West Coast has lost 13 of their last 14 by 40+.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 1-9 in their last 10 games at the Optus Stadium. Richmond are 3-2 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 5-2 against the Eagles since 2018.
Best Bet
