2023 AFL Round 1 Betting Predictions
Round 1 of the 2023 AFL season begins with the traditional matchup between the Tigers and Blues on Thursday night footy.
Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues
The Tigers open the season as favourites against their arch-rivals and they'll unveil new recruits Tim Taranto and Jacob Hooper into their midfield. That will likely see the likes of Cotchin and Martin spending more time in the forward line. I don't mind Cotchin in the anytime goal scorer markets as a result of the role change.
The Blues will be looking to start the new season in a similar fashion to last year's 101-76 result over the Tigers. However, they will start 2023 with a few injury concerns as they're already announced that two debutants will feature on Thursday night.
Carlton do look a bit underdone coming into Round 1 and Richmond won't be happy about losing Round 1 against them last season. Tigers 1-39 looks good value as they have won 7 of the last 8 meetings by this margin.
Stadium Record
Richmond went 11-3 at the MCG last season. Carlton are on a 4 game-losing streak at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers lost Round 1 against the Blues last year but hold a 12-1 advantage since 2013.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats vs Collingwood
The Cats kick off their premiership defence as comfortable favourites against the Pies. Joel Selwood has retired in the offseason so Dangerfield will take over as captain. They do have a couple of injury concerns to watch out for in Round 1, such as Hawkins and Duncan.
The Magpies were impressive last season as they jumped from 17th on the ladder into the top 4. They lost an entertaining final against the Cats last year by a kick so getting revenge in Round 1 should give them extra motivation.
Collingwood gave the Cats a scare in last year's final and do match up well with Geelong. So they look decent value as an underdog at the MCG.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 5-0 at the MCG since Round 15 and won the GF in 2022. Collingwood are 9-1 in their last 10 at the 'G.
Head to Head Record
The Cats are looking for a 5th straight win over the Pies.
Best Bet
North Melbourne vs West Coast Eagles
The Kangaroos head into 2023 with optimism behind new coach Alastair Clarkson as they look to bounce back from 2 straight wooden spoons. In Round 1, they get a winnable game against the Eagles in Melbourne and they did beat them in Round 2 at this venue last season.
The Eagles look to be rebuilding at the moment but these are the types of games they must win to move the ladder. However, they will be sweating on the fitness of key ruckman Nic Naitanui as he battles achilles soreness.
North beat the Eagles in a similar type of matchup last season and should get the job done in Clarkson's first game as coach.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are just 2-8 in their last 10 at Marvel. West Coast are 3-3 at Marvel in their last 6.
Head to Head Record
The Roos are 3-2 in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide vs Brisbane Lions
The Power missed the finals last season after a slow start to the year so they'll be eager to start well in 2023. Their injury list is looking healthy. But this is a tough challenge against one of the favourites for the flag.
The Lions were just one win away from the GF last season and have recruited the likes of Dunkley, Ashcroft and Gunstan in the offseason. They have a great record against the Power and should be favoured to make a statement in Round 1.
With the Power struggling to win early games in 2022, this does look like a tough matchup against one of the premiership favourites.
Stadium Record
Port are 7-3 in their last 10 at home. Brisbane are 3-1 in their last 4 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Brisbane is looking for their 6th win on the trot against the Power.
Best Bet
Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
The Dees start the season as comfortable favourites over the Dogs in Round 1. They've added Brodie Grundy in the offseason and the Gawn/Grundy combo looked great in the preseason. Lachie Hunter will also play against his former side.
The Dogs stunned the Dees in Round 19 last season with a comeback victory and they'll be keen to produce a similar result in Round 1. They did lose Dunkley in the offseason so their midfield will need to be at its best in a tough matchup.
The Gawn/Grundy combination looked excellent in the preseason and the Dees should be keen to overturn their poor recent record at the 'G.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are just 2-6 in their last 8 at the MCG. The Dogs are 3-5 in their last 8.
Head to Head Record
The head to head is tied at 3-3 since 2020.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Suns vs Sydney Swans
The Suns were a few wins away from reaching the finals for the first time in 2022 so they'll be looking for even more improvement in 2023. Touk Miller was one of the standouts and it's good to see him off the injury list after suffering a hammy in the preseason. They also get Ben King back into the forward line.
The Swans were embarrassed in last year's GF so the early rounds will be all about building up their confidence again. They're a young side with a lot of talent so they should be fine. However, the Suns have had their number lately.
Stuart Dew has the formula to beat the Swans and they could surprise them in Round 1 as well.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 4-2 in their last 6 at home. Sydney are 9-7 at this venue in their history.
Head to Head Record
The Suns have the wood over the Swans with 4 wins in the last 6 meetings.
Best Bet
GWS Giants vs Adelaide Crows
The Giants are coming off a disappointing 2022 as they finished 16th. It's likely going to be a rebuilding season at GWS but this is a winnable game in Round 1.
The Crows finished 14th on the ladder last season but finished off nicely with 3 wins in their last 4 games. Rory Laird will be the key in the midfield and Taylor Walker will need to win his likely matchup with Sam Taylor.
Having beaten the Crows by 50+ points in the last 2 seasons at the Adelaide Oval, it's hard to bet against the Giants at home.
Stadium Record
GWS are 7-3 in their last 10 at home. Adelaide have won 3 of their 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Crows are 10-5 against the Giants.
Best Bet
Hawthorn vs Essendon
The Hawks are without the likes of Mitchell and O'Meara in 2023 so Sam Mitchell will be looking to build up his young list this season. They do love playing the Bombers but it's likely hard to see them winning a lot of games this season.
The Bombers have a new coach in 2023 as Brad Scott takes the reins. After making the finals in 2021 and then missing them in 2022, Essendon will be looking to start well in 2023 and this is a winnable game first up.
With a good record against the young Hawks, Essendon should open the season with a 2+ goal win.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn are 2-6 at the MCG in their last 8. Essendon has lost 7 of their last 8 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Bombers are 4-1 against the Hawks since 2019.
Best Bet
St Kilda vs Fremantle
The Saints are coming off a 10th-place finish last season and have Ross Lyon back as coach. However, their injury list is one of the longest in the AFL and it's likely going to be tough for them in the early rounds.
The Dockers made the finals last season and had a good offseason with the likes of Jackson and O'Meara joining an already strong squad. They shouldn't fear the trip to Melbourne in Round 1 as they played well at this venue last season.
With the Saints injury issues, the Dockers should make them pay in a comfortable Round 1 victory.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 1-4 in their last 5 at Marvel. Fremantle held a 3-1-1 record at Marvel last season.
Head to Head Record
The two sides have won 3 games against each other since 2019.
Best Bet
