AFL 2023 Brownlow Medal Winner - The Contenders
Patrick Cripps ($9) - Cripps had an impressive 2022 campaign that included 5 three votes in the first 8 rounds and he won the Brownlow in a thrilling last round count. Coming into 2023, the Blues should be right in the top 8 battle. However, going back to back is a tough ask and he did have an injury interpreted preseason. In saying that, he should finish in the top 5 very comfortably.
Lachie Neale ($11) - After polling just 8 votes in a disappointing 2021 season, Neale was back to his elite best in 2022 with 28 votes. He's polled 26 or more votes in 3 of his last 4 seasons so he's a safe bet to reach the top 3. The Lions captaincy could also help his cause as he'll stand out in their wins. I think he's the safest bet to win the medal in 2023.
Clayton Oliver ($11) - He's been unlucky to not win a Brownlow yet after 25 votes in 2022 and 31 in 2021. However, with the likes of Petracca stealing crucial votes, it's hard to see Oliver winning the medal at the moment. But he's a lock for the top 10.
Marcus Bontempelli ($11) - The Bont polled just 10 votes last year as the Dogs had a poor season. He's very up and down in terms of votes considering he's had 10 votes in 2020 and 2022. Josh Dunkley leaving does help this cause a bit in the midfield. But I don't think he's much of a chance of winning the medal unless the Dogs finish in the top 4.
Touk Miller ($13) - Miller has turned around his career over the last 2 seasons and hit a career-high of 27 votes in 2023 to place him in the top 3. However, he does come into the 2023 season with a hamstring injury. So that could hurt his chances of polling in the early rounds.
Christian Petracca ($15) - Petracca has now polled 20 or more votes in 3 straight seasons. He's right in his prime and the Dees should have another great season. However, it's a bit of the same story as Oliver since they both take votes away from each other. But a top-10 finish is a good safe bet.
Andrew Brayshaw ($15) - He had his best season in 2022 with 25 votes and the Dockers reached the finals. He stands out when the Dockers win, highlighted by 5 three votes in 2022. He's also right in his prime and I think this price is very good value if the Dockers have a good season.
Jack Steele ($21) - After 26 votes in 2022, Steele had an injury interrupted 2023 season and finished with just 13 votes. The Saints aren't expected to reach the top 8 in 2023 so it will likely be hard for Steele to get back into the top 5.
Sam Walsh ($26) - Walsh reached 30 votes in 2021 but there are a few question marks. He's fairly injury prone at the moment and the Blues midfield has got a lot stronger over the last few years.
Connor Rozee ($34) - With Boak and Wines getting older, it's time for Rozee to take on a full-time midfield role for the Power. He was impressive in the preseason and comes off a career-high 14 votes in 2022. He could be a smokey for a top 3 finish.
Best Bet
Best Value Bet
GWS Team Votes
Josh Kelly dominated the team votes for the Giants last season with 13 and he should also win their 2023 count. Tim Taranto was their next best with 6 in 2022 but he's now at the Tigers. While Tom Green should have a good year in the midfield, he's only polled 10 votes in the last 2 seasons and can't be trusted to beat Kelly just yet.
Best Bet
Geelong Team Votes
Jeremy Cameron comes off a career-best 19 votes in 2022 in the Cats premiership season. He picked up an impressive 5 three vote games as well. He'll have some competition from Guthrie after 3 straight seasons of 13 or more votes. However, Cameron should also push into the midfield without Selwood and he kicked 65 goals in 2022.
Best Bet
Hawthorn Team Votes
There's no Mitchell or O'Meara at the Hawks in a new era for their midfield. There's some interest in Karl Amon at $4 after winning the Power team votes last season. However, Jai Newcombe looks like the safer bet. He's coming off 11 votes in 2022 and out-polled Mitchell.
Best Bet
Sydney Team Votes
The Swans team votes look to be a three-horse race between Mills, Parker and Warner. Parker is coming off 16 votes but isn't getting any younger. Warner had his best season in 2022 and finished with 12 votes. However, Mills should be hard to beat after 21 votes in 2022 and he picked 5 three-vote games.
Best Bet
West Coast Team Votes
The Eagles polled 15 votes as a team last year which sums up their dismal 2022 campaign. It likely won't get better in 2023 but there's a lot of value in their team votes. Tim Kelly is the safe bet but only managed 3 votes last year as the retired Josh Kennedy took out their count. But there is some interest in Elliot Yeo if his body can hold up. It looks like he'll be slotting into the defence for the Eagles and he should be able to rack up plenty of possessions to get a few votes.
Best Bet
Western Bulldogs Team Votes
Josh Dunkley polled a team-high 14 votes last season but he's now in Brisbane. The Bont comes off just 10 votes last season which is a bit concerning. Bailey Smith is expected to have a huge season without Dunkley but the value looks to be Jack Macrae. He's polled 10+ votes in 5 straight seasons with a ceiling of 22 in 2018. He also rarely gets injured and is a lock to play 20+ games.
Best Bet
