AFL 2022 Premiership Winner Prediction
Melbourne Demons - For the first time since 1965, the Demons are the defending champions in an AFL season. With the likes of Petracca and Oliver in their prime, the Dees are poised to defend their title. It’ll be interesting to see how they back up from a Premiership and the pressure that comes with being the team everyone wants to beat. But I wouldn’t expect them to fall out of the top 4 with so much talent across the ground.
Western Bulldogs - The biggest question mark on the Dogs is how they respond after letting a 3 goal lead slip in the third quarter of the Grand Final. I don’t see them dropping off considering their stacked midfield and the Bont is in his prime. They finished 5th last season but I do see them improving to a top 4 spot.
Brisbane Lions - One of the most consistent regular season teams at the moment is the Lions. But that success hasn’t translated to the finals after a couple of disappointing results, especially at the Gabba. However, I see them getting stronger in 2022 and look great value to finally bring the Cup back to Brisbane. They seem to have the right balance of youth and experience. If they get a few home finals at the Gabba this season, I believe they'll use the hurt of recent finals defeats to their advantage and should improve with this squad.
Port Adelaide Power - After back to back Preliminary defeats at the Adelaide Oval, the Power are proving to be untrustworthy when it comes to winning the big finals. I would also be concerned about the age of some of their stars, like Boak and Dixon. I don’t expect them to fall out of the top 8 but winning the flag is a huge question mark.
Geelong Cats - The Cats will look to bounce back from an embarrassing Preliminary final exit against the Dees last season. Geelong are always a consistent finals team at the moment with the experience of Selwood, Dangerfield and Hawkins. As well as a strong home advantage at Kardina Park against plenty of interstate teams. I can't see them finishing outside of the top 6 teams. However, they haven't won the Grand Final since 2011 and seem to struggle when it comes to the latter stages of the season, which could be due to the age of the team.
Sydney Swans - The Swannies finished equal 4th on points last year after changing to an aggressive game plan. They have recruited a heap of young talent over the last few years and should be thereabouts in the race for the top 8. However, they do have question marks about kicking a winning score if Buddy isn't fit and they'll face a tougher schedule after finishing 6th in 2021. The flag probably isn't in their sights at the moment.
Richmond Tigers - Arguably the toughest team hit by injuries in 2021 were the Tigers. With Dusty coming off a serious injury and now over 30, this is probably the Tigers' last chance to win another flag with their star. I give them a good chance of making the eight again with a huge list of their top 22 players expected to return from injury in 2022.
Best Bet
AFL 2022 Top 4: Value Bet
Richmond Tigers - As mentioned, the Tigers were ravaged by injuries in 2021 and finished with just 9 wins. However, Martin looks to have recovered nicely from a kidney injury and he should be able to help the Tigers compete with the best teams in the AFL. They also have a very favourable schedule with a total of 14 games at the MCG and only play interstate 5 times. I also love the addition of Robbie Tarrant into their backline which should offset some of their recent retirements.
Best Bet
AFL 2022 Top 8: Value Bet
Carlton Blues - There's always a lot of preseason hype about the Blues but this year seems a bit different. They have a new coach in Michael Voss and he should be able to instil gameplans from the success at the Power over the last few years. In their preseason win over the Dees, Patrick Cripps looked fitter than ever and their midfield has been upgraded with Cerra. In the forward line, they missed the electric Charlie Curnow last year but he's back to form a nice combination with Coleman medalist Harry McKay. To top it off, their schedule is rated as the 4th easiest in the AFL. $3.25 odds to make the top 8 seems good value at this stage.
Best Bet
AFL 2022 Season Wins
Adelaide Crows
The Crows won 7 games in 2021 and while you can't expect a huge improvement, winning 8 games does seem achievable. Jordan Dawson is a great pickup for their backline and Matt Crouch is back from injury to bolster their midfield. With the second easiest rated schedule in the AFL and a strong advantage at the Adelaide Oval, they should be able to beat this line of 7.5 wins.
Best Bet
Adelaide Over 7.5 Wins - $1.90
Collingwood Magpies
After winning just 6 games last season, it's hard to see the Pies getting over this mark to win 8 or more games in 2022. They're a young team that's rebuilding in the next few years with a new coach. Pendlebury and Sidebottom are getting to the end of their careers so their midfield is very young. Meanwhile, their forward line lacks a strong tall target and they ranked 16th in the AFL for points per game in 2021. A woeful trade period a few years ago won't help their cause for the next few seasons either.
Best Bet
Collingwood Under 7.5 Wins - $2.10
Fremantle Dockers
The Dockers are hovering around the 9th-12th bracket at the moment and I don't see much improvement in 2022. They continue to lose midfield talent like Adam Cerra and Nat Fyfe is having issues with his shoulder. Their forward line scoring issues haven't been addressed in the offseason either. Along with the second-toughest rated schedule in the AFL, the Dockers will likely struggle to beat teams above them on the ladder.
Best Bet
