2022 AFL Round 4 Betting Predictions
Round 4 features the winless Power up against the undefeated Dees on Thursday night and a potential finals preview between the Cats and Lions in Geelong on Friday night footy.
Port Adelaide Power (16th) vs Melbourne Demons (2nd)
It's been a poor start to the season for the 0-3 Power and losing the showdown after the siren was hugely disappointing. But a 5 goal haul by Todd Marshall was a highlight. They could get Clurey, Duursma and Gray back from injury against the Dees, which will help their depth.
The Dees are seeking a 4th straight win to start their Premiership defence and you could say they haven't been at their 100% just yet. However, their midfield continues to impress and Clayton Oliver comes off 38 touches / 8 clearances. The defence should also be boosted by the potential return of Jake Lever.
I expect a response from the winless Power but the Dees don't mind this venue and just seem to get the job done through their elite midfield group. Dees by 1-39.
Stadium Record
Port have lost their last 3 at the Adelaide Oval. Melbourne are 5-1 in Adelaide since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Power have won 3 of their last 4 meetings since 2018.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats (7th) vs Brisbane Lions (1st)
Geelong staged a brilliant 4th quarter comeback to beat the Pies on Saturday night. Jeremy Cameron kicked 6 goals and Patty Dangerfield willed the Cats over the line in the midfield. Esava Ratugolea is a good chance to play after injury last week as well.
Brisbane continued their undefeated season with a 108 pt thrashing of the Roos at the Gabba. McCarthy kicked 5 goals for the first time in his career, Bailey added 4 and Daniher kicked 3 as well. The only downside was a 1 week suspension for Oscar McInerney so Darcy Fort will take the reins in the ruck against his former team.
This should be a close game but I just see the Cats impressive home record getting them over the line. Brisbane haven't won at this venue since 2003 and a 100 pt win over the Roos isn't the best prep for a finals type game.
Stadium Record
The Cats are 8-2 in their last 10 games at home. Brisbane have lost their last 12 at GMHBA Stadium since 2003.
Head to Head Record
Brisbane won the last meeting by 44 pts but the Cats have won 3 of their last 4.
Best Bet
Sydney Swans (8th) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (15th)
The Swans were flat against the Bulldogs on Thursday night and the 71-60 scoreline flatted them as the Dogs were inaccurate. However, Nick Blakey was strong off halfback with 25 touches and they should get Justin McInerney back on Saturday. However, Tom Hickey is out for 6 weeks and that could see Ladhams get his opportunity in the ruck.
North Melbourne will need to respond after a 156-48 loss against the Lions at the Gabba. There are simply no positives to write home about in the loss and a trip to the SCG won't be any easier. They should get Luke Davies-Uniacke back from concussion which will help their midfield.
Sydney should come out firing after a poor performance against the Dogs and the Roos are coming off a woeful 100 pt loss. Swans to cover at the SCG.
Stadium Record
The Swans are 5-1 at the SCG since last season. The Roos haven't played at the SCG since 2018 and hold a poor 2-5 record.
Head to Head Record
Sydney are 7-1 against North since 2016.
Best Bet
Collingwood Magpies (6th) vs West Coast Eagles (17th)
The Pies will be disappointed in their 4th quarter effort against the Cats as they let a 5 goal lead slip in the 13 pt loss. But they should bounce back against the Eagles. Jordan Roughead is expected to return and he'll likely get the matchup with Josh Kennedy.
West Coast were always going to struggle through an injury/covid crisis to start the season but they did get some experience back in last week's 102-47 Derby defeat. They should get Barrass and Williams back this week. Meanwhile, Shuey, Rioli and Duggan are a chance of playing as well.
Collingwood will look to respond after a tough loss against the Cats and the Eagles have just looked off the pace. They also don't travel well and beating the Pies in Melbourne will be tough.
Stadium Record
Collingwood won at this venue in Round 1 but have lost 3 of their last 5. The Eagles are 0-3 at this venue since last season.
Head to Head Record
The Pies have won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Richmond Tigers (11th) vs Western Bulldogs (12th)
Richmond were overrun by the Saints last week and sit in a tough position at 1-2. It's difficult without Dusty Martin in the midfield and it's unknown when he'll be back. However, Riewoldt is expected to return from a thumb injury along with Dylan Grimes.
It wasn't pretty but the Dogs got their first win of the season against Sydney on Thursday. They wasted plenty of opportunities in front of goal with 9 goals / 17 behinds so they'll look to improve their conversion rate against Richmond. Marcus Bontempelli and Aaron Naughton are the only real concerns with slight injuries but the extra rest should benefit their cause.
The Dogs midfield depth will test the Tigers in this matchup but the Bulldogs goal kicking woes should keep this under a 40 pt margin.
Stadium Record
The Tigers are 2-2-1 at the MCG in their last 5. The Bulldogs have lost 3 of their last 5 at the 'G.
Head to Head Record
Richmond are 3-1 against the Dogs since 2018.
Best Bet
Fremantle Dockers (5th) vs GWS Giants (13th)
The Dockers responded from a loss in Round 2 with a thumping Derby win over the Eagles by 55 pts. Lachie Shultz earned man of the match honours with 2 goals and 23 touches. Blake Acres was also impressive in the midfield and Brayshaw shook off an early tag to finish with 26 touches.
The Giants easily got the job done against the Suns 83-57 and earned their first win of the season. Coniglio looked in great form with 10 clearances and Taranto / Tom Green continued to play well. The only injury concern was Nick Haynes and he'll need to get through training.
Interesting to see the Dockers as underdogs despite playing at home for the 3rd straight week. I see them as good value since the Giants have struggled to perform in Perth.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 3-2 at Optus Stadium and won the Derby here last Sunday. The Giants have only one win at this venue in 7 attempts.
Head to Head Record
Since 2012, the Dockers are 6-5 against the Giants.
Best Bet
Essendon Bombers (18th) vs Adelaide Crows (14th)
While the Bombers are 0-3, they've had a tough start to the season against three of the best teams in the AFL - Cats, Lions and Dees. So they should be more confident at home against the Crows. They should also get a few guys back from injury, such as Cox, Snelling and Francis.
Jordan Dawson announced himself as a Crow with a goal after the siren on Friday night to beat the Power in the showdown. Laird also returned from a hand injury and Crouch was solid in the midfield with 29 touches. They should get Rory Sloane back for this clash as well.
Essendon are due for a win and have a good record at Marvel Stadium. Should be a close margin so 1-39 looks the best value.
Stadium Record
The Bombers are 5-1 at this venue in their last 6. The Crows are 3-2 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Essendon are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Hawthorn Hawks (4th) vs St. Kilda Saints (9th)
The Hawks almost rallied from a 41 point deficit against the Blues but fell agonisingly short by 1 point. Changkouth Jiath was impressive off halfback with 8 marks and 27 touches. But they struggled to stop the Blues midfield and will need to improve against the likes of Steele and Crouch.
The Saints have won back to back games against the Dockers and Tigers. Brad Crouch was best on ground for St. Kilda with 29 disposals, 9 tackles, 11 clearances and a goal. Max King also continued his goal kicking form with 4, mostly coming in the 4th quarter.
The Saints midfield should be too strong for the Hawks and they should be confident after a big win over the Tigers.
Stadium Record
The Hawks are 2-1-2 at the MCG. St Kilda has lost 3 of their last 5 at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
The Saints have won the last 3 meetings since 2019.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Suns (10th) vs Carlton Blues (3rd)
The Suns are looking to get back on track after 2 straight defeats. They struggled against the Giants on Saturday and will need to improve against the surging Blues. Izak Rankine is a chance to return in the forward line.
Carlton's undefeated season continued with a 1 point win over the Hawks. However, they wouldn't be happy after letting a 41 point lead slip and they'll look to put away the struggling Suns here. Patty Cripps comes off another excellent outing with 31 touches. Docherty, Kennedy and Walsh were also among the best on ground for Carlton.
The Blues shouldn't have much trouble with the Suns behind the form of their midfield and improved forward line.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 0-5 at home. Carlton have won 3 of their last 5 at Metricon.
Head to Head Record
The Blues are 4-2 against the Suns since 2018.
Best Bet
