2022 AFL Round 3 Betting Predictions
Round 3 features the Showdown on Friday night, an undefeated clash between the Hawks/Blues and the Western Derby on Sunday night.
Western Bulldogs (13th) vs Sydney Swans (3rd)
After an 0-2 start to the season, the Dogs will be desperate for a win against Sydney. They should get Bailey Smith back from injury but Aaron Naughton is in some doubt. So their forward line will need to look for different options.
Buddy kicked his 1000th goal on Friday night as the Swans comfortably beat the Cats by 5 goals and improved to 2-0. Issac Heeney was excellent again for the home side and Mills was brilliant in the midfield.
Sydney enjoy a great record at Marvel Stadium and also beat the Dogs at this venue last season so I can see them getting the job done.
Stadium Record
The Dogs are 1-4 at Marvel in their last 5 games. Sydney hold a 4-1 record at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Swans have won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Melbourne Demons (4th) vs Essendon Bombers (17th)
The Demons have started the season with wins over the Dogs and Suns. Petracca dominated the Suns with 34 touches and 13 clearances. Jake Bowey also earned a rising star nomination with 34 disposals and 9 marks. The reigning rising star - Luke Jackson, kicked 2 goals as well.
After an embarrassing defeat against the Cats, the Bombers started well against Brisbane but faded in the end, losing 97-75. To make matters worse, Zach Merrett is out for 2 months and their midfield will be tested against the Dees.
The Bombers aren't having a good start to the season and it likely won't change against the defending premiers. Dees by 1-39.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 9-2-1 at the MCG. Essendon have lost 4 of their last 5 at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
The Dees have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Adelaide Crows (15th) vs Port Adelaide Power (18th)
The Crows have started the season with back to back losses against the Dockers and Pies. However, Ben Keays has continued his form of last season and comes off 37 disposals. They're a young and rebuilding team but they will need to stand up in the Showdown.
Sure, the Power have injuries but a 64 point home loss against the Hawks is concerning. They were wildly inaccurate in front of goal with 14 behinds to 7 goals and the Hawks made them pay. Travis Boak was one of the bright spots with 39 touches and 11 clearances. The captain will need another huge game in the Showdown.
The Power were embarrassed last week but they love beating the Crows in the Showdown. The last showdown resulted in a 1-39 margin so we like the Power to bounce back by under 40 points.
Stadium Record
Adelaide have lost 4 of their last 5 at home. Port are 3-2 at the Adelaide Oval.
Head to Head Record
The Power have won 4 of the last 5 Showdowns.
Best Bet
GWS Giants (16th) vs Gold Coast Suns (8th)
The Giants are 0-2 as their forward line has struggled in both games without Toby Greene. However, Tom Green is becoming a star in the midfield and Taranto/Josh Kelly both kicked 2 goals against the Tigers. They should be confident of breaking through for a win against Gold Coast.
The Suns fought hard against the Dees but came away with a 13 pt defeat. After playing in Perth on Sunday in Round 1, it was a spirited effort. Touk Miller was best on the ground for the Suns with 7 tackles and 9 clearances.
The Giants have a strong record against the Suns and they should be desperate for a win after starting 0-2.
Stadium Record
The Giants are 4-1 at this venue in their last 5. Gold Coast have never won at this venue in 5 attempts.
Head to Head Record
The Giants are 10-5 in the history between the two teams.
Best Bet
Collingwood Magpies (2nd) vs Geelong Cats (7th)
Collingwood improved to a 2-0 record after a huge win over the Crows in Round 2, 100-58. Jack Crisp was one of their best with 10 tackles and stood up after a quiet Round 1. Pendlebury and De Goey also provided good support.
The Cats started well against the Swans on Friday but the Buddy show took over and Geelong couldn't recover in the 5 goal defeat. Brad Close was easily their best on ground with 4 goals. They should be confident of a bounce back performance as they have a strong record at the 'G.
The last 5 meetings at the MCG have been decided by under 15 points and the underdog is 8-1 ATS in this matchup as well. So we like the Pies to cover.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 2-3 at the MCG. Geelong have won 5 straight at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
Geelong holds a 5-2 record in the last 7 meetings.
Best Bet
Brisbane Lions (5th) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (10th)
Brisbane have started the season with back to back wins over the Bombers and Power. Lachie Neale looks to be back in Brownlow form after 2 dominant performances. Hugh McLuggage also added 3 goals against the Bombers. They'll get Mitch Robinson back from suspension as well.
Nick Larkey kicked 6 goals against a decimated Eagles team as the Roos won by 15 pts. Hugh Greenwood was also excellent with 10 tackles and 9 clearances. However, the trip to the Gabba will be a lot tougher.
Brisbane should comfortably improve to 3-0 but with the Roos coming off a win, a 1-39 margin looks the best play.
Stadium Record
Brisbane hold a 9-1 record at the Gabba in their last 10. The Roos are 0-4 in Brisbane since 2019
Head to Head Record
The Lions are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Carlton Blues (6th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (1st)
The Blues are 2-0 for the first time since 2012 after wins over the Dogs and Tigers. Patty Cripps will certaintly have another 3 Brownlow votes after 35 disposals. Meanwhile, McKay and Curnow combined for 9 goals up forward. They should also get Michael Voss back in the coaches seat after covid.
The Sam Mitchell era has begun in perfect fashion for the "rebuilding" Hawks. They absolutely thrashed the Power in Adelaide by 64 points and Mitch Lewis is becoming a star. He kicked 5 goals in a career best haul. This should be a good test of their form against the Blues.
Tough game to pick with both sides in great form. But after the Hawks thrashing of the Power of Adelaide, they should take it to the Blues for the 4 quarters and get within 9.5 pts.
Stadium Record
The Blues have won 4 of their last 5 at the MCG. Hawthorn have played in 3 wins and 2 draws in their previous 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Hawks are 3-2 in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
St. Kilda Saints (11th) vs Richmond Tigers (9th)
The Saints rallied to beat the Dockers on Sunday night 65-55 after an impressive third quarter display. Max King was the key up forward with 4 goals and Higgins also added 4 goals.
The Tigers bounced back after a Round 1 loss with a 109-73 win over the Giants on Sunday. Noah Balta had one of his best games with 4 goals and Bolton was electric with 2. It was also a pleasing win considering Dustin Martin has taken personal leave and it's unknown when he'll be back.
Richmond has a nice record against the Saints and with St. Kilda coming off a Sunday night Perth trip, they might struggle to keep up with the Tigers.
Stadium Record
The Saints are 2-3 at this venue in their last 5. Richmond also hold a 2-3 record at Marvel.
Head to Head Record
Richmond holds a 6-2 record in the last 8 meetings.
Best Bet
West Coast Eagles (14th) vs Fremantle Dockers (12th)
The Eagles were absolutely ravaged by injury and covid before their game with North Melbourne and went down 74-59. However, they were in the game for a long time and should be proud of their efforts considering they had 14 team changes. They do love beating the Dockers in the Derby but it's hard to see that happening until they get some experience back.
Fremantle kicked just 8 goals last week as they collapsed against the Saints in a 10 point defeat. However, Andrew Brayshaw seemed to have his own footy, racking up 40 touches, 10 marks and 8 tackles. They should get opportunties to improve their forward line conversion against the Eagles.
Stadium Record
West Coast have struggled at home with a 1-5 record. Fremantle are 3-3 at Optus Stadium since last season.
Head to Head Record
The Eagles have dominated the Derby with 11 wins in the last 12 matchups.
Best Bet
