2022 AFL Round 22 Betting Predictions
Round 22 will feature a crucial top 8 clash between the Dees and Blues on Saturday night as well as the Derby at Optus Stadium. Then, the Swans will host the red-hot Pies on Sunday at the SCG.
St Kilda Saints (9th) vs Brisbane Lions (5th)
The Saints are coming off a 45-point loss against the Cats in Geelong and sit just outside of the top 8 by 2 points. Finals are still a chance but they need the Tigers to slip up and they must also beat the Lions or Swans in the last 2 rounds. They have a decent record at Marvel and should be fired up for a crucial Friday night encounter.
The Lions held off a late charge by the Blues on Sunday to record a 33-point win. They've now won 3 of their last 4 and sit just outside of the top 4 by percentage. So this is a must-win clash against a bottom 8 side, especially with the Dees matchup in the last round. They haven't been a great travelling team this season but with a top 4 spot on the line, the Lions should be hard to beat.
St Kilda has struggled to beat the top sides this season and Brisbane did beat them earlier in the year. The Saints are also just 1-6 ATS in night games.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 6-4 at Marvel this season. Brisbane has won 4 straight at Marvel.
Head to Head Record
The Lions have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
Best Bet
Western Bulldogs (10th) vs Greater Western Sydney Giants (16th)
The Dogs were poor against the Dockers on Saturday in the 17-point defeat and their chances of a top 8 spot took a blow. However, they do have a very good run home against the Giants and Hawks. So expect the Dogs to stand up with their season on the line.
After a terrible display in the Sydney derby, the Giants rebounded nicely with a 27-point win over the Bombers at home. Hogan kicked 4 goals up forward and the Giants midfield dominated. However, they will miss Toby Greene due to injury and Taranto is out with concussion.
The Bulldogs are a bit out of form and the Giants looked stronger last week. However, with a finals position, the Dogs should get the job done in a close finish. They've also won the last 3 meetings by a 1-39 margin.
Stadium Record
The Dogs are 8-3 at Marvel this year. GWS are 3-1 in their last 4 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Adelaide Crows (15th) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (18th)
The Crows spoiled the party in Perth as they beat the Eagles by 16 pts in Kennedy's last game. Rory Laird was great in his 200th game with 36 touches and a few goals. They will now aim for 3 straight wins before facing the Power in the showdown to close the season.
North showed a lot of fight against the Swans with their tackling pressure and Nick Larkey finished with 7 goals. But ultimately, it was another 6-goal loss and they'll need to beat Adelaide to avoid the wooden spoon.
Adelaide already beat the Roos by 57 points in Tassie this season and should be even stronger on their home turf. North have also never won at this venue and their reeling backline is likely going to struggle against the Crows forward line.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 4-6 at the Adelaide Oval this season. North are yet to win at this venue in 9 attempts.
Head to Head Record
The Crows are 3-0 against North since 2021.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Suns (11th) vs Geelong Cats (1st)
The Suns are coming off a 7-point loss against the Hawks and their season is now over in terms of finals. But the future of the Suns was on display in Tassie as Elijah Hollands absolutely dominated. Touk Miller faced a heavy tag but he'll likely roam free against the Cats.
Geelong extended their winning streak to 11 games after a 45-point win over the Saints on Saturday night. Selwood and Blivacs are expected to return from being managed. But Danger will be a test after he was a very late out last week.
Mitch Duncan has beaten his 25 disposal line in 6 of his last 7 against the Suns.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast have won 4 of their last 5 at home. Geelong are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings.
Head to Head Record
The Cats are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Mitch Duncan 25+ Disposals = $2.00
Melbourne Demons (3rd) vs Carlton Blues (7th)
The Dees are coming off a close loss against the Pies on Friday night and it could cost them a chance of hosting a final in a few week's time. So they need to bounce back against the struggling Blues. They do have a good record against Carlton and their midfield combinations should be able to dominate the clearances.
The Blues are having a tough time of securing a finals position after 3 defeats in their last 4. They were poor against the Lions at the Gabba and the 33-point margin doesn't reflect that. They've now lost Patty Cripps for the last 2 games of the season and their spot in the top 8 is in grave danger.
Carlton will be missing Cripps and they don't have a good record against the Dees. Melbourne will be keen to rebound after last week's loss and since they haven't been blowing sides away, 1-39 looks the best bet.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 7-4 at the MCG this year. Carlton are 4-3 at this venue in 2022.
Head to Head Record
The Dees are looking for a 7th straight win over the Blues.
Best Bet
Fremantle Dockers (6th) vs West Coast Eagles (17th)
The Dockers have secured a spot in the finals after a huge win over the Bulldogs by 3 goals at Marvel. They controlled the game for the 4 quarters and will come into the Derby with confidence. Freo have won the last 2 Derbies but they'll know that West Coast will be fired up.
Josh Kennedy kicked 8 goals in his final AFL game but it wasn't enough to get the Eagles over the line as they went down 102-86. This will be their Grand Final in a disappointing season and they'd love nothing more than knocking off the Dockers. However, their form at Optus has been woeful and it's hard to see an upset.
There's more rain predicted for Perth on Saturday and this will likely see a low scoring Derby. The Under is also 13-1 in the Dockers last 14 night games and they tend to struggle in the wet.
Stadium Record
Freo are 7-4 at Optus this season. West Coast are 1-10 at home in 2022.
Head to Head Record
The Eagles are 11-2 in the last 13 derbies. But the Dockers have won the last 2.
Best Bet
Richmond Tigers (8th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (13th)
The Tigers crushed the Power in Adelaide by 38 points and they're now in 8th spot on the ladder. With back-to-back games against bottom 8 opposition, Richmond should make the finals from here. They have won 7 of their last 8 at the MCG and will be favourites to make it 8-1.
The Hawks are building nicely for next season after 4 wins in their last 5. They held on to beat the Suns by 7 pts in Tassie last weekend and Jack Gunston kicked 5 goals for the 2nd time in 3 weeks.
This could be a danger game for the Tigers as the Hawks are in decent form. Richmond has been a bit up and down lately so the Hawks should be able to keep the margin within 3 goals.
Stadium Record
Richmond are 7-1 in their last 8 at the MCG. Hawthorn have lost 5 of their last 7 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 6-1-1 (1 draw) in the last 8 meetings.
Best Bet
Sydney Swans (4th) vs Collingwood Magpies (2nd)
The Swans were tested by North last week but came away with a 38-point win in the end. They've now kicked 110+ points in 4 of their last 5 games and will be looking for a 6th straight win. Their form at the SCG has been impressive as well with a 6-0 record. Heeney will play his 150th game in this one.
The Pies made a statement on Friday night with a massive 7-point win over the Dees. They've now won 11 straight and their last 6 wins have all been under a 10-point margin. A trip to Sydney against the Swans will be a good test of where they're at before a finals campaign.
Collingwood loves a close game and this should be one of the best games of the round between two in-form sides. Ultimately, the Pies are 10-1 ATS and look good value once again.
Stadium Record
Sydney are looking for a 7th straight win at home. Collingwood are 3-3 at the SCG in their last 6.
Head to Head Record
In the last 6 meetings, the head-to-head is squared at 3-3.
Best Bet
Essendon Bombers (14th) vs Port Adelaide Power (12th)
The Bombers were outplayed by the Giants last week in a 27-point defeat. However, Darcy Parish made a successful return from injury and Matt Guelfi continued his good season with 4 goals.
The Power will be looking to end a 4 game-losing streak when they head to Melbourne this week. They're coming off a 38-point loss against the Tigers at home. But they have a good record against the Bombers with 4 straight wins, including a 66-50 result in Round 11.
This one could truly go either way so the Over does look the best. Both sides are out of finals contention and a defensive struggle shouldn't be high on the agenda.
Stadium Record
Essendon are 5-3 in their last 8 at Marvel. Port are 6-0 at Marvel since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Port have won the last 4 meetings since 2019.
Best Bet
