2022 AFL Round 20 Betting Predictions
Round 20 features a top 8 matchup on Friday night, the Battle of the Bridge on Saturday and the Bulldogs look for another upset as they face the top of the table Cats on Saturday night.
Fremantle Dockers (5th) vs Melbourne Demons (2nd)
The Dockers are coming off a draw against the Tigers and the 2 points are likely going to hurt their chances of a top 2 finish. But a win over Melbourne would be helpful. Fremantle have enjoyed Optus Stadium this year with 7 wins and will be confident on their home turf, especially after beating the Dees in Melbourne.
The Demons suffered a shock loss against the Dogs after leading for most of the contest. It's a common theme this season as Melbourne have let a number of leads slip. They now travel across to Perth where they do have a good record but Freo have been tough to beat at home this season.
We expect both defensive structures to make scoring tough and that should see the Under salute. Freo also has a 12-1 Unders record in night games and come off a 52-52 draw on Friday night.
Stadium Record
Freo are 7-3 at Optus this season. Melbourne have won their last 4 in Perth.
Head to Head Record
The Dockers won the earlier season meeting by 38 pts. Melbourne are 3-2 in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Collingwood Magpies (4th) vs Port Adelaide Power (11th)
Jamie Elliott nailed a set-shot after the siren to give the Pies a thrilling win over Essendon 80-76. As a result, the Pies are in the top four and will be looking to extend their winning streak to 10 games. They don't have a great record against the Power but the hot Pies are tough to beat at the MCG.
The Power will need a miracle to make the finals but they gave Geelong a fight for 4 quarters last week in the 106-94 loss. They have played well against the Pies lately and this is a must win clash, otherwise it's season over. There will be extra motivation considering Ollie Wines and Tom Jonas will play their 200th game.
The Pies are just getting by against bottom 8 teams but Port played well last week. They do have a good record against Collingwood and should be up in Wines/Jonas 200th game. Power to cover.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 6-0 at the MCG and 9-2 this year. Port are 0-2 at the MCG this season.
Head to Head Record
The Power have a good record against the Pies with 3 straight wins and 7 wins out of 9 meetings since 2015.
Best Bet
Sydney Swans (6th) vs Greater Western Sydney Giants (15th)
The Swans had a bit of a scare against the Crows last week but ultimately came away with a 5 goal win. They've now won 3 straight games and have been tough to beat at the SCG. In the last 2 alone at home, they've kicked an average of 119 pts.
The Giants have lost 3 on the trot and come off a 6 goal loss against the Blues. With their season over at this point, this is like their Grand Final and they'd love to knock off the Swans at the SCG. They do have a good record at this venue but the question is how motivated are they going to be?
The Sydney derby is always a tight affair. But the Swans just have more to play for in terms of a top 4 position and have been tough to beat at the SCG. Sydney in a tight one by 1-39.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 5-0 at the SCG and 7-2 overall this season. GWS are 4-1 in their last 5 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The head to head is locked at 3-3 since 2019.
Best Bet
St Kilda Saints (9th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (13th)
The Saints are equal 8th at the moment and will be back in Melbourne after an easy win over the Eagles in Perth. They must win these types of games against bottom 8 opposition if they want to play finals. However, they have likely lost Jack Billings to injury after he was subbed out last week. Tim Membrey brings up 150 games and he's been in great form recently.
The Hawks are finishing off the season with momentum after 3 straight wins. They thrashed the Roos in Tassie last week and Jack Gunston made a perfect return to the side with 5 goals. While they don't have a good record at Marvel or against the Saints, they'll be keen for an upset.
This one could really go either way. The Saints are inconsistent but need a win to keep up with the Dogs. Meanwhile, the Hawks are playing well after 3 straight wins. But we do like the Over, which is 12-3 in the Hawks last 15 and the Marvel deck always comes with friendly scoring conditions.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 5-3 in their last 8 at Marvel. Hawthorn are just 1-5 in their last 6 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Saints are looking for a 5th straight win over the Hawks.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats (1st) vs Western Bulldogs (8th)
Inspirational skipper Joel Selwood will bring up 350 games for the Cats as they face the Bulldogs at home on Saturday night. Geelong were challenged by the Power last week but showed their class in the end with a 2 goal victory. They'll know the Dogs will come out firing after beating Melbourne and the Cats will need to be ready. Their defence will be boosted by the return of Tom Stewart from suspension.
Ugle-Hagan announced himself against the reigning premiers with 5 goals and the Dogs rallied to beat the Dees by 10 points. They now sit in 8th position on the ladder. However, they'll need to end a 19 year hoodoo at the Cattery.
Geelong have a great record at home, especially against the Dogs. Not to mention Joel Selwood's 350th game will give the Cats a boost. The 1-39 margin does look good value considering the last 3 clashes have finished with a margin under 15 pts.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 5-1 at home this season. The Bulldogs have a woeful 0-10 record in Geelong and haven't won at this venue since 2003.
Head to Head Record
Geelong dominate the Bulldogs with a 15-2 record since 2009.
Best Bet
Adelaide Crows (16th) vs Carlton Blues (7th)
The Crows will rue a slow start against the Swans last week as they dominated the 2nd & 3rd quarters. Rory Laird continued his fine season with 38 touches and tackling machine Sam Berry has been impressive recently.
The Blues are coming off a comfortable win over the Giants and can likely seal up a finals spot with a win in Adelaide. They have struggled at this venue with 5 straight defeats. But this Carlton team is a lot stronger than before.
Carlton will be looking to end their losing streak in Adelaide and they already thrashed the Crows a few months ago.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are just 3-6 at home this season. Carlton have lost all 5 games at the Adelaide Oval since 2014.
Head to Head Record
The Blues beat the Crows by 48 pts in Round 8 and have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Suns (12th) vs West Coast Eagles (17th)
Gold Coast showed some spirit against the Lions on Saturday night in the 110-93 loss. Touk Miller was everywhere with 34 touches and Casboult was hard to stop up forward with 4 goals. They'll go into this clash with confidence.
The Eagles are looking to end a 4 game losing streak as they head to the Gold Coast. Andrew Gaff will play his 250th game for the club and hopefully, the Eagles can make this a contest for him. Josh Kennedy probably won't make the trip as his career likely comes to end in Round 22.
Players usually step up in their milestone game and Andrew Gaff should freely roam the wings of Metricon on his way to 25+ disposals. He also collected 32 disposals in Round 1 against the Suns.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 4-2 in their last 6 home games. West Coast are just 2-5 in their last 7 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Suns beat the Eagles in Round 1 by 27 pts. The head to head is 3-3 since 2017.
Best Bet
Andrew Gaff 25+ Disposals = $1.95
Richmond Tigers (10th) vs Brisbane Lions (3rd)
The Tigers suffered a disappointing draw last week and it likely won't help their finals hopes. They're now 10th on the ladder and will need help from here. However, they do like playing the Lions, especially in Melbourne. It will also be a special occasion for Shane Edwards as he plays game 300.
The Lions have won back to back games and sit 3rd on the ladder. They'll figure out their MCG issues as they haven't won at this venue since 2014. Some of their best 22 made a successful return from injury last week. But Daniel Rich could be doubtful after getting concussed and subbed out.
Richmond have been a bit off lately but the Lions have a terrible record at the MCG, which should give the Tigers an advantage. Not to mention, the Tigers need to win these games to make the top 8.
Stadium Record
Richmond are 8-3 at the MCG this season. Brisbane haven't won at the MCG since 2014 with an 0-10 record.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers have the wood over the Lions with 8 wins in the last 10 meetings and haven't lost against them in Melbourne since 2009.
Best Bet
Essendon Bombers (14th) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (18th)
The Bombers will be disappointed after last week's 4 point loss against the Pies. But they showed great fight after conceding 6 goals in the first quarter. Zach Merrett led the way with 38 disposals and Peter Wright continued his fine season with 3 goals.
North fell back to old habits as they were punished by the Hawks in last week's 121-75 defeat. They don't have a great record against the Bombers but did beat Richmond in their last clash at Marvel.
Essendon should come out firing after last week's heartbreaking loss and they have a great record both against the Roos and at Marvel.
Stadium Record
Essendon are looking for a 4th straight win at Marvel. North are 1-5 in their last 6 at Marvel.
Head to Head Record
The Bombers are 7-0 against the Roos since 2017.
Best Bet
