2022 AFL Round 19 Betting Predictions
Round 19 features a Friday night top 8 matchup, a Grand Final re-match, the Q-Clash and the Bombers reignite their rivalry with the red-hot Pies on Sunday.
Richmond Tigers (8th) vs Fremantle Dockers (4th)
After a shock loss against the Roos last week, the Tigers are hanging to a top 8 spot. They were incredibly wasteful in-front of goals in the loss as they kicked 11.22. Their injury list isn't getting any better as Dusty Martin and Tom Lynch have been ruled out for Friday night. So the young Tigers will need to step up.
The Dockers are also coming off a tough loss as they went down against the Swans at home. However, they do have a good record at Marvel and recently thrashed the Saints by 40 points at this venue. They have a good matchup in the midfield and the likes of Brayshaw and Serong should give the Dockers forward line plenty of opportunities.
While we expect a response from Richmond after a shocker last week, this is a tough game to pick. So we'll steer clear of the head to head and look at Jayden Short's disposal markets. Short has moved into the midfield this year and has consistently gathered 25+ disposals at 10-2 in Richmond's last 12 home games.
Stadium Record
Richmond have lost 4 in a row at Marvel. Freo have a good record at Marvel with 3 wins in their last 4.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings but Fremantle won the last matchup by 4 points.
Best Bet
Total Disposals - Jayden Short 25+ = $1.95
North Melbourne Kangaroos (18th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (13th)
The Roos finally ended a 14 game losing streak with an emotional win over the Tigers. Without sacked coach David Noble, the playing group finally showed some spirit. Zurhaar had his best game of the season with 6 goals and Jy Simpkin dominated the stoppages with 9 clearances / 34 disposals. They head to Tassie with a lot of confidence and will be looking for a rare back to back victory.
The Hawks made it back to back wins with a 102-77 result against the Eagles and should be favoured to make it 3 straight against North. Hawthorn are building nicely under Sam Mitchell and the last few rounds will be used to plan for next season.
North have a decent line record at this venue (6-0 ATS in July) and should be keen for back to back wins for the first time in a long time. Roos at the line.
Stadium Record
North have lost 4 straight at this venue. Hawthorn are yet to play at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Hawks won in Round 1 by 20 points and hold a 7-3 record in the last 10.
Best Bet
Sydney Swans (6th) vs Adelaide Crows (16th)
The Swans are coming off one of their best wins of the season as they beat the Dockers in Perth by 3 goals. They were down early but responded after halftime with 8 goals to 3. With one of the best run-homes in the AFL, the Swans will be eyeing a top 4 spot and that starts with taking down the Crows on their home deck. They've been strong at the SCG with 6 wins in 8.
The Crows just fell short against the Pies last week in a 5 point loss and will face another challenge in Sydney. The form of Rory Laird has been something else as he comes off another 30 possession outing. However, the Swans could look for the tag to quell his influence in this clash.
Sydney have been thrashing sides at the SCG lately and Adelaide will likely struggle to kick enough pts to get near them. The Crows are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 as well.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 6-2 at the SCG this season. Adelaide are 3-3 at this venue in their last 6.
Head to Head Record
The Swans are 4-2 in the last 6 meetings.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide Power (11th) vs Geelong Cats (1st)
The Power put in a decent effort against the Demons last Sunday but fell away in the 4th quarter in the 83-69 result. Their top 8 hopes are still alive but they must upset Geelong on their home turf. They do have a good record against the Cats and at the Adelaide Oval.
The Cats sit atop the ladder and will seek a 9th straight win when they take on the Power this Saturday. Geelong have comfortably beaten the Blues and Demons in back to back weeks. As a result, they're looking like the team to beat for the Premiership at the moment.
This is an interesting contest because Geelong could be flat after a few tough wins over top 8 opponents. Port also have a great record at home and need to win to keep their season alive. Power at the line.
Stadium Record
Port are seeking a 7th straight win at the Adelaide Oval. Geelong have lost 3 of their last 4 in Adelaide.
Head to Head Record
The head to head is square at 3-3 since 2019.
Best Bet
Brisbane Lions (3rd) vs Gold Coast Suns (12th)
The Lions got back on track with a 40 point win over the Giants last week and their injury list is looking a lot healthier. They should get the likes of Rich, Zorko and Berry back for the Q-Clash. Brisbane love playing the Gold Coast, especially at the Gabba.
The Suns top 8 hopes are likely over after a 48 point loss against the Bombers last Sunday. They don't have a good record against Brisbane so they'll need to show something to overturn their poor record.
Brisbane have owned the Suns in the Q-Clash and this should be no different. Injuries have likely caught up with the Suns and beating the Lions at the Gabba looks too difficult.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 7-1 at the Gabba this season. Gold Coast have lost 6 straight at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Lions are 7-0 in the Q-Clash.
Best Bet
Western Bulldogs (9th) vs Melbourne Demons (2nd)
The Dogs crushed the Saints on Friday night and sit just outside the top 8. If they can beat the Dees, their chances of making the finals will be a lot higher so this is a massive clash. The good news is that the Bont looks in excellent form and they should get a few players back from Covid protocols.
The Dees got over the line against the Power as Pickett kicked 6 goals. Their midfield should be boosted by the return of the injured Clayton Oliver. Melbourne have dominated the Bulldogs since winning the GF last year and they should be favoured for another win in this clash.
Melbourne love playing the Dogs at the moment and also enjoy a nice record at Marvel. Not to mention, the return of Oliver in the midfield.
Stadium Record
The Dogs love Marvel as they've won 6 of their last 7. Melbourne are 5-0 at Marvel since 2020.
Head to Head Record
The Dees are 3-1 in the last 4 meetings and beat them in Round 1 by 26 pts.
Best Bet
Carlton Blues (7th) vs Greater Western Sydney Giants (15th)
The Blues will be looking for a response on Sunday after a 30 point loss against the Cats. However, Sam Walsh comes off 33 touches and Charlie Curnow kicked 3 goals in the loss. They beat the Giants earlier this season and shouldn't much trouble at Marvel, where they've won 5 of 6.
The Giants have lost 4 of their last 5 and they surely can't wait for this nightmare season to end. With 4 of their last 5 games against top 8 teams, GWS will need to find some improvement quickly or the losses will keep on piling up.
This is a must win game for the Blues top 4 hopes and the Giants look out of their depth at the moment.
Stadium Record
Carlton have won 5 of their last 6 at Marvel. GWS currently hold a 3 game winning streak at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Blues beat the Giants in Round 9 to end a 6 game losing streak against the Giants.
Best Bet
Collingwood Magpies (5th) vs Essendon Bombers (14th)
The Pies made it 8 straight wins on Saturday with another close win as they beat the Crows 91-86. They love playing at the MCG with an 8-2 record this year. However, the Bombers will be a challenge despite their ladder position.
Without the pressure of finals, the Bombers are playing great footy at the moment. They've won 4 of their last 5 and that includes 2 wins against top 8 opponents. They would love nothing more than to dent the Pies finals position and will be fired up for this clash.
This is another tough game to pick as the Bombers are back in form but the Pies know how to win close games. So we do like the Over, which is 7-0 in the Bombers last 7 day games.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 8-2 at the MCG this year. Essendon have lost 8 of their last 10 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Pies won a close affair on Anzac Day this year 93-82 and hold a 5-3 record in the last 8 meetings.
Best Bet
West Coast Eagles (17th) vs St Kilda Saints (10th)
The Eagles are looking to end a 3 game losing streak as they're back at home in Round 19. They haven't lost against the Saints in Perth for 12 years so an upset win could be brewing.
The Saints were disappointing on Friday night as they started slowly against the Dogs and went down 84-56. With a top 8 spot on the line, the Saints need to find some consistency and that starts with beating the 17th placed Eagles on Sunday.
St Kilda are far too inconsistent at the moment and their poor record against the Eagles in Perth could be a problem. So hopefully the Eagles can stand up on their home turf.
Stadium Record
West Coast are just 1-8 at Optus this season. St Kilda have lost 4 of their 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Eagles are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings and haven't lost against the Saints in Perth since 2010.
Best Bet
