2022 AFL Round 17 Betting Predictions
Round 17 features a top of the table clash in Geelong on Thursday night and the Swans host the Bulldogs in a crucial Friday night encounter.
Geelong Cats (2nd) vs Melbourne Demons (1st)
The Cats celebrated Mitch Duncan's 250th with a 100+ pt win over the Roos and will be seeking revenge against Melbourne on Thursday night. The Dees smashed them in last year's PF final by 83 pts. However, the Cats should be confident on their home turf where they've won 4 of 5 this season. There will be key matchups all over the ground but probably the most important will be the Cats forward line up against the Dees strong backline. Patrick Dangerfield made a successful return from injury last week and Joel Selwood will be back from a rest.
The Demons got the job done over in Adelaide last Saturday as they beat the Crows by around 5 goals. They've now won back to back games after a rare 3 game losing streak. They have the wood over the Cats lately and did win at this venue in the last round of 2021 when Max Gawn kicked a goal after the siren. After a few weeks out, Gawn is back this week along with Jackson to bolster their ruck depth.
The Cats rarely get beaten in Geelong and I can see them responding after a few losses against the Dees recently, especially with top spot in reach.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 4-1 at home this season. Melbourne are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Dees beat the Cats in the finals last year 125-42 and have won the last 3 meetings as well.
Best Bet
Sydney Swans (8th) vs Western Bulldogs (10th)
The Swans suffered a bad loss against the Bombers last week and let down Luke Parker in his 250th game for the club. They've lost their last 2 against bottom 8 sides so this clash against the Dogs at home is a crucial matchup for their top 4 hopes. In positive news, their injury list is looking healthy and Josh Kennedy could make a return from a hammy.
The Dogs were outplayed by the Lions at the Gabba and will be on the road for the 2nd straight week as they head to Sydney. But they do have a good record at the SCG and if their forward line comes to play, they should give the Swans a tough battle. Their ruck stocks also get a boost with the likely return of English.
The Under is 6-0 between these two teams and we like it here as well. The Dogs kicked just 67 pts last week. Meanwhile, Sydney allowed just 32 pts in their last home game. Not to mention the wet weather in Sydney this week.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 5-2 at home this season. The Dogs have won 3 of their last 4 at the SCG.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Dogs have won 3 of 5.
Best Bet
Collingwood Magpies (6th) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (18th)
The Pies are on fire at the moment after 6 straight wins and they outlasted the Suns on the Gold Coast last week. They've now jumped into 6th on the ladder and this clash with North will likely be a key percentage booster. Darcy Moore also escaped a serious knee injury but they'll probably play it safe considering the matchup.
North were handed another heavy defeat last week as they travelled to Geelong and got smashed by 100+ points. They don't have a good record at the MCG either and haven't played well against the Pies recently.
Collingwood's forward line have a great matchup and Brody Mihocek looks great value to kick 3 or more goals.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 7-2 at the MCG this season. North haven't won at the MCG since 2017 and have lost their last 5.
Head to Head Record
The Pies are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings since 2017.
Best Bet
Brody Mihocek 3+ Goals = $2.00
Gold Coast Suns (11th) vs Richmond Tigers (7th)
The Suns are playing good footy but they just can't get finish off sides are back to back close losses against the Pies and Power. It will probably cost them a top 8 spot but they'll look to continue the string of close finishes against the Tigers at home on Saturday. However, the injury bug has continued with Budarick going down with a knee injury.
The Tigers outlasted the improved Eagles last week in the 128-93 result and now sit 7th on the ladder. They have an impressive record on the Gold Coast with 11 wins in a row. However, Dusty Martin hurt his hamstring last week and has been ruled out. But Dion Prestia should be able to return and face his former side.
Richmond love playing on the Gold Coast and the Suns are struggling with a lot of injuries in their backline. So the Tigers should get the job done.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 3-3 at home this season. Richmond have a great record on the GC with 11 straight wins.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 7-4 against the Suns since 2011.
Best Bet
St Kilda Saints (9th) vs Fremantle Dockers (4th)
The Saints ended a 3 game losing streak with a huge win over the Blues at this venue last Friday night. They have a nice record at Marvel Stadium and should go into this clash with confidence, especially after beating the Dockers in Perth this season. The return of Jack Steele has boosted their midfield and he'll need to carry the Saints over the line in this matchup as well.
The Dockers held off the Power at home last week in an 8 point win and now sit equal 2nd on the ladder. They'll be looking to avenge the earlier season loss against the Saints and this is a crucial 4 points with ladder positions so tight at the top.
The Saints are playing well at Marvel but they're still an inconsistent side. Fremantle have a strong defence and that should see this clash going Under the total. The Dockers are 16-2 against the Under in their last 18 night games.
Stadium Record
St Kilda has won 5 of 7 at Marvel this year. Fremantle have a poor record at Marvel with just 2 wins in their last 10 games.
Head to Head Record
The Saints won the earlier season meeting and hold a 3-1 record since 2019.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide Power (12th) vs Greater Western Sydney Giants (13th)
The Power almost pulled off an upset win over the Dockers in Perth last week but fell short by 8 points. So this home game against the Giants is a crucial one for their top 8 hopes. They're 5-0 at the Adelaide Oval so they'll be very confident.
The Giants come off a 22 point win over the Hawks and kept their faint top 8 hopes alive. They've played well at this venue of late so they'll believe they can beat the Power. Especially if Coniglio can continue his impressive form in the midfield.
This should be a close game between two sides that are near each other on the ladder. The Giants do have a good record in Adelaide and that should see them cover.
Stadium Record
Port are looking for a 6th straight win at the Adelaide Oval. GWS have won 3 of their last 4 in Adelaide.
Head to Head Record
Overall, the head to head is locked at 6-6 since 2012.
Best Bet
Brisbane Lions (3rd) vs Essendon Bombers (16th)
Despite losing Zorko and Rich to hamstring injuries, the Lions recovered to crush the Dogs 108-67. Both players will miss this clash but the Lions have the depth to cover them. They've also won all 7 games at the Gabba this year.
The Bombers rallied to beat the Swans 95-86 last Saturday in one of their best wins of the year. However, their interstate record isn't great at the moment and this is a tough challenge in Brisbane.
The Lions are difficult to beat in Brisbane and Essendon are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 at the Gabba. Brisbane to cover.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are undefeated at the Gabba this season with 7 straight wins. Essendon have lost their last 4 at the Gabba.
Head to Head Record
The Lions are 3-0 against the Bombers since 2020.
Best Bet
Hawthorn Hawks (15th) vs Adelaide Crows (14th)
The Hawks are looking to end a 5 game losing streak on Sunday and come off a 22 point defeat against the Giants. This is a winnable game against the Crows and they do have a good record against Adelaide.
The Crows head to Melbourne after a 5 goal loss against the Dees but will fancy themselves against the Hawks. Rory Laird continued his 30 disposal streak as he's hit the 30+ mark in his last 5 games.
Hawthorn are 1-10 as a favourite and the Crows midfield will likely be the key in them potentially winning this clash.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn have lost their last 5 at Marvel. Adelaide have a poor 1-4 record at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Hawks are 4-2 in the last 6 meetings.
Best Bet
West Coast Eagles (17th) vs Carlton Blues (5th)
West Coast are back at home after a decent effort against the Tigers in Melbourne last week. They beat the Bombers in their last home game and have a very good record against Carlton. They will miss Yeo with another injury but McGovern should be back to help their backline against Curnow/McKay.
Carlton were disappointing against the Saints on Friday night and will look to respond against West Coast. However, their record in Perth and against the Eagles isn't too good. But they'll likely get Weitering back to help their injury riddled backline.
The Eagles are looking much improved at the moment and will go into this contest with confidence. They've beaten the Blues in the last 7 meetings and Carlton aren't the best travelling team. Eagles to cover at home.
Stadium Record
West Coast beat the Bombers here a few weeks ago and ended a 9 game losing streak at Optus. Carlton have lost 4 of their 6 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Eagles have a good record over the Blues with 7 straight wins.
Best Bet
