2022 AFL Round 16 Betting Predictions
Round 16 features a top 8 battle between the Lions and Dogs on Thursday night and the Blues look to continue the Saints woes on Friday night footy.
Brisbane Lions (3rd) vs Western Bulldogs (8th)
The Lions come off a disappointing performance as they were outplayed by the Dees on Thursday night in the 117-53 result. So they'll look to respond on their home turf and get some revenge over the Dogs after losing to them in an epic final last year. Brisbane have been hard to beat at the Gabba this year as they hold a 6-0 record. They should get Zorko back from injury to bolster their squad as well.
The Dogs started slowly against the Hawks but smashed them in the second half to record a crucial 125-83 victory. They've now kicked 125 pts in back to back weeks as their forward line is finally starting to convert inside 50s into goals. They'll still be without Tim English in the ruck and Bailey Smith is a big out due to suspension. Jack Macrae will play his 200th game and should be a lock to get 30+ disposals.
Brisbane are warm favourites at home but the Bulldogs will head north with confidence. They beat the Lions in the finals at this venue last season and their forward line is in-form at the moment. They've covered in 5 of their last 6 and this should be a close game.
Stadium Record
Brisbane have won 6 in a row at the Gabba. The Bulldogs won at this venue in the finals last year but have lost 3 of their last 4.
Head to Head Record
The head to head is locked at 2-2 since 2019.
Best Bet
Western Bulldogs +14.5 = $1.90
Carlton Blues (5th) vs St Kilda Saints (10th)
The Blues continued their great record at Marvel Stadium with a huge win over the Dockers on Saturday by 31 pts. Sam Walsh had his own footy with 40 touches and Charlie Curnow kicked 4 goals against a tough Dockers defence. The Blues forward line should be licking their lips with an upcoming matchup against the reeling Saints.
The Saints have slipped to 10th after 3 straight defeats. They managed just 32 pts last week against Sydney and they'll have to regroup quickly against Carlton. The only positive was the return of Jack Steele and he'll need a huge game for the Saints to win this.
Carlton love playing at Marvel and their midfield/forward line should dominate the struggling Saints. Blues are 6-0 ATS at Marvel and we're expecting they'll make it 7-0.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 5-0 at Marvel. St Kilda are 4-1 in their last 5 at Marvel.
Head to Head Record
The Saints are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
Best Bet
Essendon Bombers (16th) vs Sydney Swans (6th)
The Bombers followed a great win over the Saints with another inconsistent display against the Eagles as they went down by 10 pts. Zach Merrett was the standout for the Bombers and Peter Wright enjoyed his 100th game with 4 goals. But otherwise, the Bombers are struggling at the moment and don't have a great record at the MCG or against Sydney.
The Swans thrashed the Saints at the SCG on Saturday night and rebounded nicely after a bad loss against the Power. Sydney's defence was brilliant as they kept the Saints to just 32 pts and the likes of Florent/Blakey/Lloyd provided excellent ball movement out of their defence. The Swannies love playing at the MCG, highlighted by an upset win over Melbourne a few weeks ago. It's also Luke Parker's 250th game.
Sydney have a nice record at this venue and also beat the Bombers by 40+ earlier this season.
Stadium Record
Essendon have lost 5 straight at the MCG. Sydney have won 4 of their last 5 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Swans are riding a 3 game winning streak and smashed the Bombers by 58 pts in Round 9.
Best Bet
Adelaide Crows (13th) vs Melbourne Demons (1st)
The Crows got the job done against the Roos on Sunday and will welcome the challenge against the top side in the AFL. Tex Walker kicked 6 goals last week but he'll face a tough ask against his former teammate in Jake Lever and May.
After 3 straight defeats, the Demons were fired up against the Lions on Thursday and showed in a mammoth 64 point victory. The return of May was huge for their defence and Luke Jackson was brilliant in the ruck. Max Gawn is still out with injury but should be back in a few weeks. Bailey Fritch comes off 3 goals and will bring up 100 games on Saturday.
The Under does look the best bet in this matchup considering Melbourne's defence is back to full strength and the Crows will likely struggle to kick over 50 pts.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 3-4 at home this season. Melbourne are 6-1 in their last 7 at the Adelaide Oval.
Head to Head Record
Melbourne has won 4 of the last 6 matchups.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats (2nd) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (18th)
The Cats outlasted the Tigers in arguably the game of the season at the MCG in the 89-86 result. However, Tom Stewart will miss a few weeks with suspension. But that likely won't make a difference against the Roos. This one will be all about Mitch Duncan as he reaches the 250 game mark.
The woes at North continue after another 40+ point loss against the Crows. They have a woeful record against the Cats and it's not much better when they meet in Geelong.
This matchup is really a question of how much the Cats will win by. But we're looking for value and Mitch Duncan to kick a goal in his 250th looks a nice play. He's kicked a goal in 2 of his last 3.
Stadium Record
Geelong is 3-1 at home this season. North Melbourne are 1-8 at this venue since 2008.
Head to Head Record
The Cats are 9-0 against North and haven't lost against them since 2015.
Best Bet
Anytime Goalscorer - Mitch Duncan = $2.50
Gold Coast Suns (11th) vs Collingwood Magpies (7th)
The Suns almost produced a stunning upset in Adelaide last Sunday but fell short by 2 points. However, they're in good form at the moment and have played well at home recently.
Collingwood held off the Giants last week by 11 points and extended their winning streak to 5 games. As a result, the Pies have jumped into the top 8 and will look to stay there with a win over the Suns.
The market is expecting a close game with the odds just in the Suns favour. Collingwood are in great form but haven't played away from the MCG since Round 10. But with rain on the forecast, this should be a low scoring affair. The Under has also saluted in 5 of the last 6 games involving the Pies.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 3-2 at home this season. Collingwood have an impressive 9-2 record at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Pies are 9-3 in the 12 meetings between the two sides.
Best Bet
Richmond Tigers (9th) vs West Coast Eagles (17th)
The Tigers come off a tough loss against the Cats and have lost Dion Prestia to concussion. However, they smashed the Eagles by 100+ points and should be confident of getting back on track against West Coast.
The Eagles finally broke a long losing streak both at home and this season with a great win over the Bombers. So they head to Melbourne with confidence and Jack Darling will bring up 250 games for the Eagles.
West Coast are a better side than 17th considering their injury woes this season and should be able to give the Tigers a tight contest. They've covered in their last 3 and will take a lot of confidence out of last week's win over Essendon.
Stadium Record
Richmond are 5-1 at the MCG in their last 6. West Coast are 4-3 at the MCG since their 2018 GF victory.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers belted the Eagles by 109 pts and have won 3 of the last 4.
Best Bet
Greater Western Sydney Giants (14th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (15th)
The Giants top 8 hopes are likely over after a tough loss against the Pies last week. But they have been playing better footy of late. Coniglio had another great game on Sunday and Taranto made a successful return from injury.
The Hawks were excellent early against the Dogs but the story of the season has been fadeouts for this young team. However, Mitch Lewis was great with 4 goals, especially after returning from injury. They've never won at this venue but this is the kind of game they can win.
This should be a close game between two fairly similar sides and if the Hawks can fix their second half fade-outs, they give the Giants a scare.
Stadium Record
GWS are 5-2 in their last 7 at this venue. Hawthorn have a poor 0-6 record.
Head to Head Record
Hawthorn has won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
Best Bet
Fremantle Dockers (4th) vs Port Adelaide Power (12th)
The Dockers will look to bounce back at home after losing to Carlton last Saturday. They'll look to improve defensively after Carlton dominated. Nat Fyfe was quiet in the contest but should be better for the run after returning from injury a few weeks ago.
The Power held off the Suns last week at home by 2 points and kept their hopes of a top 8 berth alive. They're getting by without a true ruckman at the moment and it seems to be working for their gameplan. They do have a good record against Fremantle but haven't played well at Optus Stadium recently.
Freo are tough to beat at home but the Power are desperate to make the finals. This should be another close affair and we can see the Power giving it their all for the contest. Power to cover.
Stadium Record
Freo are 6-1 in their last 7 at home. Port have struggled at this venue with a 1-4 record.
Head to Head Record
Port have won the last 3 meetings but Freo are 2-0 when they play at this venue.
Best Bet
