2022 AFL Round 11 Betting Predictions
Round 11 features a top 8 battle on Friday night between Sydney and Richmond, the Dees put their undefeated streak on the line against the Dockers on Saturday and the MCG will be packed for the Blues clash against the Pies on Sunday.
Sydney Swans (7th) vs Richmond Tigers (8th)
The Swannies are coming off a disappointing loss against the Blues last Friday night and will be eager to bounce back against the Tigers. They have lost back to back games at the SCG and will be without Josh Kennedy due to a hamstring injury. However, they did beat the Tigers in Melbourne last year by a big margin.
The Tigers sit inside the top 8 after 4 straight wins and will head to Sydney in search of an upset. They come off a comfortable win over the Bombers in the Dreamtime matchup. However, Tom Lynch pinged a hammy and their forward line will need to adjust.
This should be a close affair and with the SCG in-play, the Over looks a good play. Both sides average 90+ points per game.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 3-2 at the SCG this season. Richmond have lost 8 of their last 9 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The head to head is split 3-3 since 2016. Sydney beat the Tigers last season 117-72 at the MCG.
Best Bet
Brisbane Lions (2nd) vs Greater Western Sydney Giants (14th)
The Lions are coming off a rare loss after the Hawks produced an upset in a thriller down in Tasmania. However, the Lions are tough to beat at the Gabba and will be favoured to bounce back. They have likely lost McCluggage to a hamstring injury but they have the midfield depth to cover him.
The Giants started the Mark McVeigh era in the best way possible as they thrashed the Eagles by 52 pts. Coniglio and Josh Kelly dominated the midfield. Meanwhile, their forward line was unstoppable - highlighted by 3 goals for James Peatling. But they'll know the trip to Brisbane will be a lot tougher.
Sure the Giants only played the Eagles last week but their midfield should be able to compete with the Lions in what should be a close game. The away team is 10-1 ATS in this matchup as well.
Stadium Record
Brisbane have won their last 4 at the Gabba. GWS has lost their last 3 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Lions are 3-1 against the Giants since 2019.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats (6th) vs Adelaide Crows (15th)
The Cats easily accounted for the Power on Saturday and will be back in Geelong for this clash. They'll be without Danger against his former side but the Cats have strong depth through their midfield to adjust. They should also get Stanley back in the ruck after he was a late withdrawal.
The Crows are looking to end a 4 game losing streak. However, they have a terrible record in Geelong having not won here since 2003. They'll likely be without Rachele in the forward line as well so Tex Walker will need to kick a bag to get them over the line.
The Under is 3-0 in Geelong this year and the Crows will likely struggle to kick over 60 pts.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 3-3 in their last 6 at home. Adelaide have lost their last 11 in Geelong.
Head to Head Record
The Cats have won 3 of the last 4 meetings and have one of the best home records against the Crows in the AFL.
Best Bet
Melbourne Demons (1st) vs Fremantle Dockers (4th)
The Dees are flying after 17 straight wins and a 10-0 start in 2022. This will be their first meeting with a top 4 side for a while so it should be a good test of where they're at. They should get Viney back in the midfield and Langdon could play against his former team after being subbed out last week.
The Dockers will be hoping it doesn't rain in Melbourne on Saturday because their last 2 performances in the wet have been poor. They've lost back to back games against the Suns and Pies as their gameplan has struggled to adjust for the wet conditions. They've also lost Switkowski for 2 weeks due to suspension.
Rain is forecast for this matchup and the Dockers have struggled to kick a score in recent rain impacted games. So the Under looks the best play. It's also 9-0 in the Dockers last 9 games.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are undefeated at the MCG this season (6-0). Freo has lost 5 of their last 6 at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
The Dees are 4-2 in the last 6 meetings.
Best Bet
West Coast Eagles (18th) vs Western Bulldogs (9th)
Not many positives to write home about for the last placed Eagles. They were outplayed by the Giants last week in another 40+ margin defeat and the Bulldogs are going to be an even tougher matchup.
The Dogs come off a solid win over the Suns and they're aiming for 3 straight wins as they head West. Their forward line should have a field day against the Eagles strugging defence and Aaron Naughton should be the key.
Naughton kicked 4 goals against the Eagles in the last meeting and he's coming off kicking 10 goals in his last 3 games. 4 or more goals looks great value for the Doggies key forward.
Stadium Record
West Coast have lost their last 7 at Optus Stadium. The Dogs have a poor 2-5 record at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Dogs have won the last 3 meetings since 2020.
Best Bet
Aaron Naughton 4+ Goals = $2.90
Gold Coast Suns (12th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (13th)
The Suns will be looking to get back on the winner's list after a tough loss against the Dogs on Saturday. But they have shown improvement over the last month and should fancy their chances at a neutral venue.
The Hawks ended a long losing streak with an impressive win over the Lions. Newcombe continues to shine in the Hawks midfield with 27 touches and Tom Mitchell was great after having a week off. However, their ruck stocks are getting thinner as Max Lynch is out.
Hawthorn are coming off a great win over Brisbane and have a much better interstate record compared to the Suns. They've won 4 of their last 5 away from Melbourne and should get over the line.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are yet to win at this venue in their 2 attempts. Hawthorn have never played at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Hawks are 3-1 in the last 4 meetings since 2018.
Best Bet
St Kilda Saints (5th) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (17th)
The Saints stormed home to beat the Crows in Adelaide on Saturday night and sit 5th on the ladder. Brad Hill was excellent in his 200th game and Brad Crouch found plenty of ball against his former side. Max King kicked 6 goals up forward and will be looking forward to this matchup against the struggling Roos.
North showed a bit of spirit against the Dees on Saturday but were ultimately overrun in the 47 point defeat. They've now lost 6 straight games by a 40+ point margin.
The Roos showed a bit of effort against the Dees and the Saints did struggle to put away the Crows. So don't mind the chances of North getting within 46.5 pts.
Stadium Record
The Saints are 3-1 at Marvel this season. The Roos have lost 3 of 4 this season at Marvel.
Head to Head Record
The Saints are 4-0-1 against the Kangaroos in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Collingwood Magpies (10th) vs Carlton Blues (3rd)
Collingwood come off a huge upset win over the Dockers in Perth and sit just 1 win outside of the top 8. Jack Crisp shook off illness and collected 27 touches. Meanwile, Oli Henry kicked 4 goals as the sub and will likely get the start on Sunday with Mason Cox now injured.
Carlton fans are up and about after an 8-2 start to the season and they sit 3rd on the ladder. They outplayed the Swans last Friday night as Curnow kicked 6 goals and Hewett dominated his former side with 32 disposals. They love playing at the MCG at the moment and should be fired up for this clash.
Both sides are playing well but the Blues have the advantage in this matchup. They're on a longer rest and the Pies could struggle after a tough Sunday night game in Perth last week.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 3-2 at the MCG this season. Carlton are ridding a 4 game winning streak at the 'G.
Head to Head Record
The Blues have won 5 of the last 6 meetings since 2018.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide Power (11th) vs Essendon Bombers (16th)
The Power's winning streak ended in Geelong against the Cats last Saturday. But they should be more confident on their home turf against the reeling Bombers. Their midfield has a great matchup and the likes of Boak, Wines and Rozee should lead them victory.
The Bombers showed a bit of fight in the Dreamtime game but ultimately went down by 32 pts. They sit 16th on the ladder and finals are looking out of the picture at the moment. So they'll need to respond on Sunday night.
Port need to win these types of games to make finals and it's hard to back the inconsistent Bombers at the moment. Power by 1-39 looks the best value.
Stadium Record
The Power have lost 4 of their last 6 at home. Essendon are 5-5 in their history at the Adelaide Oval.
Head to Head Record
The Power are ridding a 3 game winning streak against Essendon.
Best Bet
