2022 AFL Round 1 Betting Predictions
Round 1 of the AFL season features a Grand Final rematch, the Sydney derby and a potential top 4 preview between the Lions and Power.
Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs
The Dees begin their premiership defence at the MCG with a mouthwatering rematch against the Dogs. Melbourne comes into 2022 with a very similar squad and they'll be expecting to finish around the top 4 again. Their backline will likely be tested in Round 1 with a few injuries to May and Petty. However, the midfield is their strength with the likes of Oliver and Petrecca coming off great seasons.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs won't have to wait long for redemption against Melbourne and they should be confident. They did beat the Dees at the MCG in the regular season last year and their stacked midfield should be the key. They will be without Lachie Hunter due to form but Dunkley had a good preseason and Treloar should be more comfortable in his 2nd year at the Dogs.
The underdog has a good record at the MCG (16-5 ATS) and three of the last 4 GF rematches have been won by the losing Grand Finalist. So we're looking for a close one to start the season and the Dogs to get within 9.5 pts.
Stadium Record
At the MCG, the Dogs are 3-2 since Round 2, 2019. Last season, the Dees went 8-2-1 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Melbourne won last year's GF 140-66. The Bulldogs are 3-2 in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers
The Blues head into the season with high hopes of improvement under new coach Michael Voss. Patrick Cripps looked unstoppable in the preseason and Carlton will need him at his best without the injured Sam Walsh. There are also concerns for Harry HcKay up forward. However, Sam Docherty is making a successful return from cancer in Round 1.
Richmond couldn't take a trick in 2021 with injuries to some of their stars, including Dusty Martin. However, they look healthy to start 2022 and always love beating the Blues first up. They'll likely be missing the likes of Graham, Grimes and Lambert. However, their midfield is stronger with Martin back and Robbie Tarrant is a nice addition to the backline.
Richmond has won 6 straight games against the Blues by a 1-39 margin. With Dusty back and the Blues having a few injury issues, we like the Tigers to continue the trend against their old rival.
Stadium Record
Richmond struggled at the MCG last season with a 4-6-1 record. Carlton have won 3 of their last 4 at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 11-0 against the Blues and haven't lost against them since the finals in 2013.
Best Bet
St Kilda Saints vs Collingwood Magpies
After a finals victory in 2020, the Saints underachieved in 2021 as they finished just outside the top 8. A Round 1 matchup against the rebuilding Pies is a good start to the season but offseason injuries haven't been kind. They'll be without Clark, Coffield and Geary in the backline. Meanwhile, the midfield is without Billings, Hannebery and Jones. So Jack Steele will need a huge game to get his side over the line.
2022 is likely going to be a rebuilding year for the Pies under a new coach. In Round 1, their backline will be tested against the likes of King with Roughead out and Howe having a limited preseason. However, their midfield should be boosted by Taylor Adams. De Goey didn't have a great preseason off the field but if he can kick a few goals, the Pies are a chance.
The Pies have a great record against the Saints with 7 straight wins at night and they've covered in 11 of the last 12 meetings.
Stadium Record
The Saints are 2-4 at Marvel in their last 6 games. Collingwood has also lost 4 of their last 6 here.
Head to Head Record
The head to head is locked at 3-3 since 2016.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers
The Cats will look to bounce back from a thrashing at the hands of the Dees in last year's preliminary final. With one of the oldest lists in the AFL, this could be their last chance to threaten for the flag. In Round 1, they have a lot of talent that missed the preseason but could play on Saturday. This includes the likes of Duncan, Menagola and Miers.
Essendon finished 8th last year but their finals winning drought continued after going down to the Dogs in Tassie. Their scoring potential could be an issue in Round 1 with Tipingwuti out and Stringer coming off a groin injury.
Geelong are tough to beat as favourites as they've won 12 of their last 13. The Bombers come into Round 1 with a few underdone players and that will likely hurt them against the Cats.
Stadium Record
The Cats are 6-1 at the MCG. Essendon has lost 3 of their last 4 at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
Geelong has won the last 3 meetings.
Best Bet
GWS Giants vs Sydney Swans
The Giants finished 7th last year and will look to move up the ladder in 2022. With Greene out until Round 6, Coniglio and Taranto will be important when they spend time up forward. They'll be without Preuss in the ruck but Jesse Hogan is expected to play.
Sydney improved their game plan last year and it paid dividends as they finished 6th. Buddy Franklin is just 5 goals away from the 1000 mark, which should give the Swans an early-season confidence boost. They'll also come into the season with one of the healthiest squads.
GWS seem to have the wood over the Swans as they've won 5 of the last 7, including a 1 pt win in last year's finals matchup.
Stadium Record
Sydney have lost their last 3 at this venue from 2015-2016. The Giants hold a 1-3 record.
Head to Head Record
GWS has won 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Best Bet
Greater Western Sydney +2.5 = $1.90
Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide Power
Brisbane open the season as one of the premiership favourites and will be expected to beat the Power at the 'Gabba. They have a good looking squad that will only be missing Hipwood up forward in Round 1. There are some injury concerns for Zorko but he should be able to play.
Port head to Brisbane as underdogs but this will be a key game for their top 4 aspirations. They do have a good record in Brisbane but have struggled against the Lions in recent times. Their forward line will likely be without Dixon and Robbie Gray is 50/50. So kicking a winning score will likely become an issue.
The Lions have beaten the Power by over 6 goals in the last 3 meetings and the last 2 were at the Gabba. We're expecting a strong season by Brisbane and they should kick it off with a win over the Power.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 9-1 at the Gabba. Port are 3-1 at this venue since 2020.
Head to Head Record
Brisbane has won the last 4 meetings since 2019.
Best Bet
Hawthorn Hawks vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
The Sam Mitchell coaching era begins at the Hawks begins on Sunday and they'll be favourites to beat the Roos. While they're not expected to reach the top 8, these are the kind of games they need to win. In team news, Sicily returns to the backline but they have lost Bramble to injury.
North won the spoon last season but showed some improvement in the latter stages under David Noble. Their midfield depth will be tested in Round 1 with Anderson and Cunnington out. Bonar is also out and Hall will need to pass a fitness test.
This is a tough game to pick as both sides were poor last season and don't have their best 22 on the park. However, the Roos have been good against the line (10-2 ATS) and this should be a close finish.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn have played in 2 draws and 2 wins in their last 4 games at the MCG. North Melbourne are on a 4 game losing streak at this venue.
Head to Head Record
North has won 3 of the last 5 games.
Best Bet
Adelaide Crows vs Fremantle Dockers
The Crows start the season as underdogs at the Adelaide Oval and a broken hand for Rory Laird isn't great news. However, Matt Crouch is back to bolster their midfield and recruit Jordan Dawson could make his debut that will help their ball movement out of the backline.
The Dockers will get Nat Fyfe back from a shoulder injury In Round 1. But a hamstring injury to Matt Taberner is a big blow for their forward line that already struggled to kick goals in 2021. Without Cerra, Serong is expected to have a larger role in the midfield and the guidance of Mundy should be helpful.
The Crows won their first 2 games at home last season, highlighted by an upset win over the Cats. Without Taberner, I don't see the Dockers kicking a winning score.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 3-7 at the Adelaide Oval. Since 2014, the Dockers have a poor 2-9 record in Adelaide.
Head to Head Record
The Dockers hold a 3-2 record in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
West Coast Eagles vs Gold Coast Suns
The Eagles come into the season with a lot of concerns surrounding their depth after an injury crisis. In the midfield, they have injuries to Shuey, Sheed, Yeo and Tim Kelly (covid). Meanwhile, Witherdon is suspended and Darling/Cripps are out.
Starting the season on the road to Perth isn't an ideal start for the Suns but the Eagles injury crisis should give them hope. Matt Rowell looked fit in the preseason and Touk Miller is becoming a star. However, a preseason ACL to Ben King is a big blow for their forward line that will need to rely on Chol/Casboult.
This is a great opportunity for the Suns to get their first win at Optus Stadium. Backing the Eagles is going to be difficult in the early rounds considering their growing injury list.
Stadium Record
West Coast have lost 4 of their last 5 at Optus Stadium. The Suns are yet to win at this venue in 5 attempts.
Head to Head Record
The Eagles have won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
