2022 AFL Grand Final Betting Predictions
Geelong and Sydney will look to end Premiership droughts when they meet in the 2022 Decider on Saturday afternoon at the MCG. The Cats are favoured to win their first Grand Final since the 2011 season when they beat Collingwood. Meanwhile, the Swans last Grand Final victory was an upset victory over the Hawks in 2012 and they'll love the underdog tag once again.
Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans
The Cats looked a class above the competition last week as they belted the Brisbane Lions 120-49. With the advantage of a week off, it definitely showed in the end as they stormed home to kick 11 goals in the second half. Best on ground had to be Patrick Dangerfield as he was basically unstoppable with 28 touches, 8 clearances and 2 goals. There's no doubt Sydney will be putting time into him around the stoppages but his speed and elusiveness will be tough to stop. In the forward line, Tom Hawkins finished with 4 goals but it could've been at least 6 as he missed plenty of easy set shots. Cameron was quiet with just 12 touches and 1 goal so he'll look to bounce back in his 2nd GF. Tyson Stengle continued his impressive season with another 3 goals and Rohan added 2 goals. Gary will be fired up to take on his former team as well. In the backline, Mitch Duncan led the way with 26 touches and 10 marks. Jake Kolodjashnij shrugged off an injury in the first week of the finals with an excellent display - 23 touches and 9 marks. The only sour note for the Cats is a hamstring injury for Max Holmes. At this stage, he could still play if he makes it through a fitness test. But the Cats have a lot of depth on the sidelines such as Parfitt or Menegola that could step in. Otherwise, the Cats will most likely go with the same side.
The Swans overcame a late surge by the Magpies to seal a thrilling 1-point victory at the SCG on Saturday night, 95-94. Sydney started the final with an impressive 6-goal first quarter and held a 4-5 goal lead for most of the first half. However, they went defensive in the second half as they struggled to move the ball past the Pies backline. They will need to improve in this area as Geelong have a similar setup. After a quiet final against the Dees, Lance Franklin responded with 7 marks and 2 goals. This could be his last GF and he'll be hoping for one more trophy. Papley kicked 3 goals and Sydney will need more of that on Saturday. In the midfield, Luke Parker did a great job on De Goey around the stoppages and the Swans will be looking for a similar gameplan against Danger. Mills finished with 27 touches but the highlight was his spoil in the backline in the last minute. Similar to Geelong, the Swans have an injury concern with Sam Reid subbed out with injury in the win. That saw Heeney / McDonald as second ruckman which isn't ideal. If Reid can't prove his fitness, they'll likely call up Joel Amartey to give Tom Hickey a rest in the ruck.
Geelong deserve to be favourites and will be hard to beat after that Preliminary final domination at the MCG. They're also more experienced and a lot of their older players will know this could be their last chance to lift the trophy. However, Sydney's defence will be much stronger compared to the Lions and that should be the difference in this Grand Final being a close affair. Both sides are also on a long winning streaks with Geelong winning 15 straight and Sydney have won 9 on the trot. The trends also say this should be a close contest. Sydney are 10-2 ATS as an underdog at the MCG and that includes a recent win over Melbourne in the finals. The margin in the Swans last 5 at the G has also fallen below 15 points in 4 of 5. So they do enjoy playing at the ground. Ultimately, Sydney to cover the line does look a good play as long as they can quell the influence of Dangerfield.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 12-2 at the MCG this season and 3-2 in their last 5 finals. In Grand Finals, they're 3-1 since 2007. Sydney only played at the MCG 3 times this season but won 2 of 3. They have lost back to back Grand Finals at the venue in 2016 and 2014.
Head to Head Record
Lance Franklin kicked his 1000th goal in Round 2 as the Swans beat the Cats by 30 points. But the Cats have won 4 of the last 6 meetings. The last finals matchup was back in 2017 and Geelong easily won 98-39.
Best Bet
Anytime Goalscorer
For the Swans, Chad Warner looks an excellent price to kick a goal this Saturday. He's hit the scoresheet in his last 6 games and has kicked a goal in 7 of his last 10 games. While for the Cats, the price for veteran Isaac Smith looks nice value. In his career, he's kicked 5 goals in 4 Grand Finals and will hopefully use that experience to his advantage. At the moment, he averages 1 goal in his last 6 games.
Best Bet
Chad Warner ($2.25) / Isaac Smith ($2.50)
Same Game Multi
Both sides averaged over 90 points per game this season and while Grand Finals have traditionally been low scoring, the new rules should see a more open affair in 2022 so we like the Over in leg 1. As mentioned, the Swans to cover as well. Meanwhile, Callum Mills is the most consistent mid for the Swans and he looks nice value to hit 25 touches. He's coming off 27 against the Pies and recorded 29 against the Cats in Round 2.
Best Bet
