2022 AFL Preliminary Finals Betting Predictions
A place in the 2022 Grand Final is up for grabs on the weekend and it starts on Friday night footy with the Lions looking for back to back upsets at the MCG as they face the rested Cats. Meanwhile, the Swans are looking for their first Grand Final appearance since 2016 as they host the Magpies at the SCG.
Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions
Geelong enjoyed a week off after a huge win over the Magpies in week 1 of the finals, 78-72. While the Cats didn't start well, they finished strong in the second half with 7 goals. Gary Rohan silenced the critics with 3 important goals and Jeremy Cameron also added 3 goals. In the midfield, the Cats have plenty of finals experience, especially in these types of games. Atkins and Danger both recorded 8 clearances. Meanwhile, Cats skipper Joel Selwood finished with the most disposals for the Cats (25). In the backline, Jake Kolodjashnij suffered an early injury but the Cats were able to adjust. He should be right to play in this final as the week off likely helped. Tom Stewart was at his intercepting best with 7 marks against the Pies so he'll look to continue the form against Brisbane.
The Lions are just one win away from a Grand Final after two impressive finals victories. Firstly, they held off the Tigers by 2 pts at the Gabba in an elimination final. Then last week, they stormed home to beat the Dees by 13 pts in the semi-finals at the MCG. As a result, their MCG hoodoo is over and Brisbane will be full of confidence to upset the Cats at the same venue on Friday night. Up forward, Eric Hipwood has been in great touch with 7 total goals. They'll likely get Joe Daniher back after he missed last week and that'll give their scoring potential a boost. In the midfield, Berry was one of the main reasons why the Lions beat the Dees and he also escaped suspension. McCluggage was also important. Down back, Daniel Rich controlled the footy with 30 touches and their defence finally showed some resolve against a top 8 team. They had previously allowed 116 points per game against the Dees in the regular season so it was a huge turnaround in a final.
The trend of close finals in 2022 should continue this matchup as the Lions do matchup well with the Cats. However, the week off is a boost for the Cats and they should be much fresher. The Lions did have to comeback against the Demons and I doubt the Cats will let them back in the game if they get a lead. Geelong also won their last finals matchup by 40 pts at the Gabba. I can't see a huge margin this timearound as Brisbane are in good form. So the 1-39 margin looks the best bet for the top of the table Cats. They're 3-0 against the 1-39 margin at the MCG.
Stadium Record
The Cats are 9-1 in their last 10 at the MCG. Brisbane won their first game at the MCG since 2014 in last week's final against Melbourne. Previously, they had lost 11 straight at the venue.
Head to Head Record
In Round 4, the Cats beat the Lions by 10 pts in Geelong. Geelong has won 4 of the last 5 meetings, including the 2020 Prelim at the Gabba.
Best Bet
Sydney Swans vs Collingwood Magpies
The Swans setup a home final at the SCG with a massive win over the Demons in the first week of the finals at the MCG. They kicked away in the second half with 10 goals to 5. Considering Buddy Franklin was kept goalless for the match, the 91 pts was a huge score. Franklin will likely face a tough matchup against the Pies. But the Swans will be confident of finding other sources to goal now. Luke Parker was one of the best in the Swans midfield and he lives for these types of finals. Collingwood are one of the worst sides in the finals for giving up disposals to midfielders so Sydney will be getting plenty of the ball. So target the likes of Parker, Mills and Rowbottom in the disposal markets. Defensively, Sydney conceded just 50 pts against the Pies at this venue in late August and they have only allowed 90+ pts in 2 of 9 games at the SCG this season. So they're going to be hard to score against in a final as well.
The Pies got the job done at the MCG on Saturday night as they beat the Dockers by 20 points. They now head to Sydney for a chance to play in a Grand Final in what has been an incredible comeback season for the Pies. It's hard to figure that they finished 2nd last in 2021. But an injection of youth has been one the main factors, highlighted by Nick Daicos. He comes off a 25 disposal outing against Freo and will find some attention from Ryan Clarke in the backline. In the midfield, Crisp, De Goey and Pendles were all strong in the victory with 24 disposals a piece. It's an extra special occasion for Crisp as he brings up 200 AFL games on the weekend. The ruck will be an interesting battle as Darcy Cameron takes on his former team. Tom Hickey outplayed Gawn in their first final so Cameron will need to hit the scoreboard to win the matchup. While in the backline, the Pies have been impressive in the finals so far. Darcy Moore will likely get the matchup on Franklin. Meanwhile, the Swans have plenty of small forwards that need to be shutdown for Collingwood to produce an upset.
Sydney get the benefit of a week off and they've been a tough team to beat at the SCG this season. That includes a recent victory over the Pies in Round 22. The trouble for the Pies will likely be their leaky midfield where the Swans will get plenty of ball at the clearances and their forward line is great form. The Pies are a strong underdog team as they're 6-1 ATS and there's a good chance of keeping this under a 3 goal margin. However, Sydney are 4-0 against the 1-39 margin and the matchup looks to be in their favour. Not to mention, they've also won 5 of their last 6 Prelims.
Stadium Record
Sydney have won 7 straight at the SCG and hold a 9-2 record overall this season. Collingwood lost by 27 pts at this venue in Round 22. However, they have a 3-3 record at the SCG in their last 6 since 2017.
Head to Head Record
The Swans have won the last 2 meetings by around 5 goals. Since 2015, Sydney leads the head to head 5-3.
Best Bet
