2022 AFL Semi Finals Betting Predictions
The Semi Finals will see the Dees looking to bounce back against the Lions on Friday night footy. Meanwhile, the Magpie Army will be out in force as they face the underdog Freo Dockers at the MCG on Saturday night.
Melbourne Demons vs Brisbane Lions
The Dees are coming off a disappointing loss against the Swans at the MCG and will be looking to rebound on Friday night. They were undisciplined by giving away 3 50m penalties that resulted in goals and their forward line struggled to convert opportunities into goals. Another concerning issue is a knee injury for Petracca. He'll attempt to play through the injury but he surely won't be at 100%. So the Dees will need their younger midfielders to stand up. However, their confidence will be high against Brisbane as they matchup well with the Lions. They thrashed them at the Gabba in the last round of the season and previously crushed them at this venue in the middle of the season. Melbourne knows how to expose the Lions defensive structures and the Oliver/Gawn combo is a tough one to stop.
The Lions overcame their finals hoodoo at the Gabba last week with a massive win over the Tigers, 106-104. Considering they lost main ruckman Oscar McInter in the first quarter, it was a brilliant win. Lachie Neale was huge for the home side with 39 disposals and 15 clearances. McCluggage also continued his consistent season with 26 touches and a goal. Their forward line was productive as Daniher, Cameron and Hipwood all kicked 3 goals. But their backline is a concern against Melbourne. They gave up 104 pts against the Tigers and Melbourne has kicked an average of 116 pts in the 2 meetings this season.
There are several trends that just say Brisbane are up against it in this matchup. They have struggled against the Dees this year and their record at the MCG is very concerning. Their defence has struggled to contain points and Melbourne's defence between May and Lever will be hard to get past. Meanwhile, the injury to Petracca is a big one for the Demons and their ability to kick a big score will likely be limited without him at full strength. So that should see a closer margin than the previous 2 encounters in 2022. But with Melbourne playing at home, they should get the job done by a 1-39 margin this time around. They have covered in 9 straight nine games against the Lions as well.
Stadium Record
Melbourne have lost 5 of their last 7 at the MCG. Brisbane's last win at this venue was back in 2014 and they've lost 11 straight since.
Head to Head Record
The Dees have won both meetings by 50+ points this season and won by 64 pts at the G in Round 15.
Best Bet
Collingwood Magpies vs Fremantle Dockers
Unlike the regular season, the Pies couldn't hold on in a close final against the top of the table Cats as they went down 78-72. But they're favoured to respond at the MCG on Saturday night. They have enjoyed playing in Melbourne this season and the Collingwood faithful will be right behind them. They also beat the Dockers in Perth already this season. The key will be their midfield, which performed well against the Cats. Pendles dominated with 34 touches and the Daicos brothers were excellent. Crisp and De Goey have had quiet seasons for their standards but they looked much better against Geelong. The only concern is a season ending injury for the unlucky Taylor Adams. So they'll need someone to replicate his tackling pressure around the clearances.
The Dockers produced one of the great finals comebacks against the Dogs last week at Optus Stadium in the 73-60 result. After the first quarter siren, they had just 1 point on the scoreboard to the Dogs 35 pts. But they kicked 7 goals to 2 in the second half for a famous victory and will now head to Melbourne with momentum. Andrew Brayshaw will bring up his 100th AFL game and he's coming off a clinical 33 disposal effort against the Dogs. Serong was also strong in the middle with 33 disposals. Meanwhile, Ryan and Young gave Freo plenty of ball from the backline. Considering they beat the Demons at the G this season, a battle against Collingwood in Melbourne shouldn't overcome them. They just need to get a few goals on the board early on to quell the crowd's influence.
Both sides have the ability to storm home in the second half so the first two quarters will be a key factor in this game. Freo will be looking to start well after last week's horror first quarter and they'll also need to quiet the Magpie crowd. Collingwood won't be too disappointed in their close loss against the Cats because they had their measure for most of the game. They also benefit from no travel and a home final. But ultimately, this should be a close, grinding and low-scoring contest. As such, the Dockers have been one of the best bets against the Under in night games and it's a strong play in a final as well. Collingwood is also 10-0 against the Under in September footy.
Stadium Record
Collingwood lost at the MCG last week but had previously won 11 on the trot. Fremantle are 4-5 at the MCG in their last 9 but they did beat the Dees by 38 points in their only game at the venue this season.
Head to Head Record
The Pies won the Round 10 matchup in Perth by 36 pts. But Freo have won the last 2 meetings in Melbourne.
Best Bet
