2022 AFL Finals Week 1 Betting Predictions
The race for the AFL Grand Final begins with week 1 of the finals and 4 enticing matchups across the weekend. The action starts at the Gabba on Thursday night with the Tigers daring to dream against the Lions.
Brisbane Lions vs Richmond Tigers
After a heavy loss against the Dees at the Gabba, the Lions missed out on a top 4 spot and now face an elimination final against the Tigers. At the moment, they are underdogs despite playing on their home turf and that says a lot about their form. At the Gabba this season, they have won 9 of 11. However, their defence has been exposed at the back end of the season. So they'll need to shut down the Tigers forward line, especially after they conceded 10 goals in the Round 20 matchup at the MCG. The Lions weren't helped at the judiciary either as Rayner / Answerth are both out with suspension. However, Joe Daniher and Oscar McInerney will both play in milestone games in this final and the squad should get around them.
The Tigers head into the finals with winning form after thrashing the Hawks/Bombers by 10 goals and they've won 4 games on the trot. They still have plenty of finals experience in their squad and could be a tough opponent as the finals progress. Tom Lynch will be one of the keys after he's kicked 17 goals in their last 3 games. He was subbed out of the Bombers win but the pre-finals bye should help him out. There's also a good chance that Dusty Martin and Jack Graham can return from injuries. They also have a nice record in Brisbane and will start as favourites in the betting.
The market is all over the Tigers and it's hard to disagree. Brisbane have struggled to win home finals over the last few seasons and come into this finals series with a lot of question marks as well. They were poor against the Dees in Round 23 and their defence will likely struggle to contain the Tigers. Richmond also get Martin back and he's a proven finals performer. Also, Richmond has covered the line in nine of its last 10 night matches. Tigers to get the job done.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 9-2 at the Gabba this season. They have lost their last 2 finals at home. Richmond have an excellent record at the Gabba with 12 wins in their last 14 games.
Head to Head Record
Richmond beat the Lions in a thriller back in Round 20 by 7 points. Overall, the Tigers are 8-2 against Brisbane in the last 10 meetings.
Best Bet
Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans
Melbourne smashed the Lions in the last round and that victory sealed up a top 2 spot for the defending champs. After playing all 3 finals away from Melbourne last season, the Dees fans should be packing out the MCG in this crucial final. However, their record against top 8 sides at the MCG this season wasn't great. They've lost 4 of their last 5 and that includes a 2-goal defeat against the Swans. In saying that, their defence has struggled with injuries this season but the likes of May and Lever are back. So that should see them lockdown against the Swans forward line options. Christian Petracca will also play his 150th AFL game and the reigning Norm Smith medalist will be looking to make another statement in this one.
The Swans couldn't nail a top 2 spot but they likely won't be too disappointed about a trip to Melbourne in Week 1 of the finals. They have a good record in Melbourne and always get good crowd support. They hit the finals with 7 straight wins and their injury list is one of the best in the AFL. The only concern is Papley after he was subbed with concussion in Round 23, but the pre-finals bye should help. After beating the Dees in Round 12 at this venue, they'll be a confident side in what will likely be a low scoring contested final.
Melbourne are the warm favourites but it will be surprising if the margin finishes over 2 goals. Both sides are fairly similar in how they play and that should see a tightly contested game at the MCG. The Dees have also struggled to put away top 8 sides at this venue, highlighted by a 2 goal loss against this Sydney team. In a close contest, we like the Swans to cover and potentially produce an upset. The underdog has covered the line in each of Sydney's last 11 matches at the MCG.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 8-4 at the MCG this year. Sydney have won 4 of their last 6 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In Round 12, Sydney upset the Dees by 12 points and they've won 10 of the last 12 against them.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats vs Collingwood Magpies
The Cats have been the best side all year and will head into the finals as the team to beat. They're currently on a 13 game winning streak and haven't lost since Round 9 against the Saints. The only concern would be a pretty soft end to the season with easy wins over the Eagles and Suns. However, they were able to rest players during this time and that should benefit them in a finals campaign. The likes of Cameron, Duncan and Stanley should return after injuries. Otherwise, their list is looking strong and they'll be hard to beat.
Collingwood jumped into the top 4 after a 1 point win over the Blues and other results went their way. They are the masters of the close finish as they've won plenty of games by under 10 points this season. So if they can keep the Cats within reach in the last quarter, the Pies will know they can mount a comeback. They should also get a boost in terms of injuries as Taylor Adams is expected to return. He'll help the Pies win the clearances, which is an area they have struggled in this season.
Geelong are the clear favourites in this matchup and they shouldn't have much trouble advancing. Sure, Collingwood have won plenty of close games this season but they have struggled to put away a lot of bottom 8 sides. They've also struggled to contain midfielders and the Cats have arguably the stronger centre square in the AFL. While this shouldn't be a blowout, the Cats at the 1-39 margin looks the best value.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 8-2 in their last 10 games at the 'G. Collingwood are looking for a 10th straight win at the MCG and have won 12 of 14 at the venue in 2022.
Head to Head Record
The Cats are looking for a 4th straight win over the Pies and they won the first meeting of the season 104-91 in Round 3 at the MCG.
Best Bet
Fremantle Dockers at Western Bulldogs
The Dockers just finished outside of the top 4 but they won't be unhappy with a home final in Perth. They head into the finals after 3 straight wins and a trip to Perth is always a tough challenge, especially in a final. Their forward line does have some injury issues with Lobb, Logue and Taberner under injury clouds. But the midfield is where this game will likely be won and the likes of Brayshaw/Serong/Brodie will be the key. Fremantle also had a nice win over the Dogs recently and they'll look to employ a similar gameplan of keeping the ball in the hands of their best ball users.
The Dogs scrapped into the finals after Carlton's meltdown at the MCG but they won't be complaining. It's been an up-and-down season for the Dogs after losing the Grand Final but they get a chance to redeem themselves. They also won the GF in 2016 from 7th on the ladder so finishing 8th shouldn't faze them. Their midfield is stacked with talent, highlighted by the Bont. If their forward line can fire as well, the Dogs will be right in this one. Aaron Naughton will also play his 100th AFL game and he kicked 3 goals in the Round 21 matchup.
While the Dockers should win on their home turf, this could be a scrappy affair based on the Perth weather conditions. Rain is predicted for most of Saturday and we know the Dockers struggle to play in the wet. But that should also see a low-scoring affair. The Under is an excellent bet when the Dockers play at night as it's saluted in 14 of their last 15. Both sides rarely kick over 100 points and the slippery conditions in a final should suit the Under.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 8-4 at home this year. The Dogs have lost 5 of 8 at Optus.
Head to Head Record
The Dockers upset the Dogs in Round 21 at Marvel with a 95-78 victory. But the Dogs did win the last meeting in Perth at this venue in 2021.
Best Bet
