Sydney Swans v Adelaide Crows
Friday, April 20 7:50pm, SCG
Round 5 starts at the SCG as the Swans host the Crows on Friday night. Last time out, the Swans only just won against the Bulldogs 86-79 and the Crows were smashed by the Magpies by 48 points. They have a few injury concerns and that's a worry against Sydney at the SCG. Rory Sloane looks injured and they're missing the Crouch brothers in the midfield. Sydney also has a good record over the Crows and their forward line can damage the Crows backline like Collingwood last week. So in a tight contest, I'll take the Swans 1-39 for value.
Stadium Record
In 2018, the Swans are 1-1 at the SCG. The Crows are 0-2 at the SCG since 2015.
Head to Head Record
The Swans have a 2-1 record since the 2016 season. The Swans survived by 3 points in the last meeting.
Best Bet
St Kilda Saints v GWS Giants
Saturday, April 21 1:45pm, Etihad Stadium
Saturday afternoon footy will see the Saints hosting the Giants at Etihad Stadium. The Giants easily defeated the Dockers last week by 31 points. On the other hand, the Saints got smashed by the Cats last round by 47 points for their 3rd straight defeat. They continue to struggle to convert in front of goals and that means trouble against the Giants. GWS are allowing just 71 points in 2018 and they're forward line is stronger with Toby Greene now back. Josh Kelly should return as well for this clash. So the Giants midfield will dominate this clash and I can see them winning by 4+ goals.
Stadium Record
In 2018, the Saints hold a 1-2 record at Etihad Stadium. The Giants haven't played at Etihad Stadium since Round 21, 2017 and they won that match by 48 points.
Head to Head Record
The two teams are tied with a 1-1 record since the 2016 season. The Saints comfortably won 108-85 against the Giants in the last meeting.
Best Bet
Carlton Blues v West Coast Eagles
Saturday, April 21 4:35pm, MCG
This matchup will see the Blues hosting the Eagles at the MCG on Saturday afternoon. The Eagles are looking the better side after 3 wins this season. Last match, the Eagles crushed the Suns 139-59 and the return of Josh Kennedy showed. The Eagles forward line is firing as they average 110.3 points per game, which ranks 1st in the AFL. They now face the Blues who got smashed by the Kangaroos last round 116-30. They've lost their skipper for a month and they're ranked last in the AFL for points against (109.5). So I'm taking the Eagles to overcome their MCG woes with a 5+ goals victory over Carlton.
Stadium Record
This season, the Blues hold a 0-2 record at the MCG. The Eagles went 0-2 at the MCG last season.
Head to Head Record
The Eagles have a 2-0 record since the 2016 season. The Eagles beat the Blues 100-83 at Subiaco last time out.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide Power v Geelong Cats
Saturday, April 21 7:40pm, Adelaide Oval
This matchup sees the 3-1 Power hosting the 2-2 Cats at the Adelaide Oval on Saturday night. The Power were comfortably defeated against the Bombers by 22 points so they'll be looking to rebound at home. Last round, the Cats crushed the Saints 103-56 in their first home game of the season. I don't think Geelong are getting much respect in the betting as they've won the last 3 against the Power. Port is missing Patty Ryder in the ruck and Geelong's midfield group will likely take advantage in the clearances. So I'm backing them to cause an upset.
Stadium Record
In 2018, the Power hold a 2-0 record at the Adelaide Oval. The Cats haven't played at the Adelaide Oval since the Preliminary Final, 2017 and they lost that match by 61 points versus the Crows.
Head to Head Record
The Cats have a 2-0 record since the 2016 season. The Cats survived by 2 points in the last meeting.
Best Bet
Fremantle Dockers v Western Bulldogs
Saturday, April 21 8:10pm, Optus Stadium
Round 5 continues as the Dockers play the Bulldogs at Optus Stadium. In Round 4, the Dockers comfortably lost against the Giants by 31 points and the Bulldogs just lost against the Swans by 7 points. The Bulldogs have seemed to have fixed their defence from the early rounds so this should be a close contest. However, the Dockers are looking strong at their new stadium and Sandilands should be able to dominate the ruck against English. They've also won the last two against the Dogs at home by 1-39 and I'll back them at the margin again.
Stadium Record
This season, the Dockers hold a 2-0 record at Optus Stadium. The Bulldogs have never played at Optus Stadium.
Head to Head Record
The Dockers have a 2-1 record since the 2016 season. The Dockers comfortably won 89-73 against the Bulldogs in the last meeting.
Best Bet
North Melbourne Kangaroos v Hawthorn Hawks
Sunday, April 22 3:20pm, Etihad Stadium
This matchup sees the 2-2 Kangaroos hosting the 3-1 Hawks at Etihad Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The Hawks are coming off a dominanting 115-48 victory over the Demons. Meanwhile, the Kangaroos crushed the Blues by 86 points. However, the Hawks have the wood over the Roos with 8 wins in the last 10 clashes. They have a better midfield and that should help them outscore the Kangaroos. The Hawks are avering 105 points per game and the Kangaroos are just averaging 84. So the Hawks should win this by 1-39 points.
Stadium Record
This season, the Kangaroos hold a 1-0 record at Etihad Stadium. Which they won against the Saints by 52 points. This is the first match for the Hawks at Etihad Stadium since Round 23, 2017, which they won by 9 points against the Bulldogs.
Head to Head Record
The Hawks have a 3-0 record since the 2016 season. In the last meeting, The Hawks beat the Kangaroos 116-89 at York Park.
Best Bet
Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast Suns
Sunday, April 22 4:40pm, Gabba
The Gabba plays host to the Q-Clash in Round 5 between the Lions and the Suns. Both sides were terrible last week so this will hopefully be a close matchup. Brisbane could only manage 17 points against the Tigers and the Suns were outclassed by the Eagles in Perth. But I'm just siding with Brisbane to rebound and the fact they won both matches against the Suns last year. Tom Lynch probably won't be 100% up forward and they'll struggle to score points. So back Brisbane to rebound at home.
Stadium Record
In 2018, the Lions are 0-1 at the Gabba. They lost against the Demons by 26 points. This is the first match for the Suns at the Gabba since Round 21, 2017, which they lost by 58 points against the Lions.
Head to Head Record
The Lions have a 3-1 record since the 2016 season.
Best Bet
Melbourne Demons v Richmond Tigers
Tuesday, April 24 7:25pm, MCG
Tuesday night football at the MCG will be played between the Demons and the Tigers. The Tigers are looking the better side after 3 wins this season. The Tigers crushed the Lions by 93 points last week and the Demons were smashed by the Hawks last round 115-48. Richmond is scoring 103 points per game, which ranks 3rd in the AFL. But the key is their defence which allows under 80 points per game and the Demons are allowing 93 points in the backline. The Tigers won this clash by 13 points last season so I can see them winning by 1-39 once again.
Stadium Record
In 2018, the Demons are 1-2 at the MCG. Also in 2018, the Tigers hold a 3-0 record at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
The two teams are tied with a 1-1 record since the 2016 season. The Tigers comfortably won 88-75 against the Demons in the last meeting.
Best Bet
Collingwood Magpies v Essendon Bombers
Wednesday, April 25 3:20pm, MCG
Round 5 concludes with the traditional Anzac Day clash between the Magpies and the Bombers at the MCG on Wednesday afternoon. Both teams have the same record in 2018 so this should be a close contest. They're also both coming off impressive wins. The Magpies unexpectly thrashed the Crows at the Adelaide Oval and the Bombers comfortably beat the fancied Power. The Bombers went 2-0 against the Pies last season, including a 100-82 win in the Anzac Day match. So they do matchup well with the Pies and I think they can overcome them in a close finish.
Stadium Record
This season, the Magpies hold a 1-2 record at the MCG. Since last season, the Bombers hold a 5-2 record at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
The Bombers have a 2-1 record since the 2016 season. The Bombers comfortably won 117-80 in the last meeting.
Best Bet
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