Sydney Swans v Carlton Blues
Friday, June 1 7:50pm, SCG
The Swans and Blues face off at the SCG on Friday night footy to start Indigenous Round. Sydney is sitting 4th on the ladder and will be heavily favoured to beat the 18th placed Blues. The Swans are 4-1 in their last 5 matches and thrashed the Dockers at this venue a few weeks ago. Looking at the Blues, they have a 1-4 win-loss record in their last 5 matches. They are scoring 65.2 points per match, which ranks 18th in the AFL and they need to improve their defence in this matchup as they allow 103.2 points on average in season 2018. They last met at this venue in Round 23 last season and the Swans won 138-57. It’s hard to see them stopping Franklin again after he kicked 10 goals in that game and he'll be looking to put on a show during Indigenous Round. So I would take the Swans at the line, which is 5-3 in this matchup since 2013.
Stadium Record
This season, the Swans hold a 2-3 record at SCG. The Blues have lost 5 in a row at the SCG.
Head to Head Record
Since 2010, the Swans are 10-3 against the Blues.
Best Bet
Western Bulldogs v Melbourne Demons
Saturday, June 2 1:45pm, Etihad Stadium
Round 11 continues with the Bulldogs hosting the red-hot Demons at Etihad Stadium on Saturday. The Demons stamped their premiership credentials with a huge 146-55 win over the Crows in Alice Springs. They rank 1st in the AFL for points scored (108.6) and also rank highly (7th) for points against. Since losing to Richmond, they’ve strung together 5 impressive wins. For the Bulldogs, they're coming off a loss against the Magpies last week by 35 points. They are a poor scoring team (70.7 points per match) and that should be the difference in this contest. I don’t see how they will stop the Demons attack and they don’t have the options up forward to outscore them.
Stadium Record
This season, the Bulldogs are 3-3 at Etihad Stadium and the Demons are 2-0.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs are 8-3 against the Demons.
Best Bet
Hawthorn Hawks v Port Adelaide Power
Saturday, June 2 2:10pm, University of Tasmania
The Hawks and Power face off in Tassie on Saturday afternoon. Each team is just outside the top eight so the stakes are high. For the Hawks, they're coming off a loss against the Eagles last week by 15 points. They’ve now lost 3 straight and need to find form. The Power had the bye last week and they’re coming off 2 straight wins. I think the week off will give the Power a big advantage. The Hawks played a tough game against the Eagles last week and got smashed by the Lions previously. So get on the Power.
Stadium Record
The Hawks are 44-12 at this venue in their history. Port is 5-3 here since 2002.
Head to Head Record
The Hawks are 8-5 against the Power since 2010.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Suns v Geelong Cats
Saturday, June 2 4:35pm, Metricon Stadium
On Saturday afternoon, the Suns and Cats meet at Metricon Stadium in the “Gary Ablett Cup”. Gazza is back on the Gold Coast and he’ll be looking to dominate his former side. The Cats are 3-2 in their last 5 matches and they recorded an easy 73-45 win against the Blues at Kardinia Park. For the Suns, they have a 1-4 win-loss record in their last 5 matches. They had the bye last week and should be motivated for their first game at Metricon in 2018. Their record against Geelong on the GC is great as they’ve won the past 2, obviously with Ablett. However, the return of Lynch, Day and Martin helps them compete with the Cats. As an underdog, they’re 4-1 against the line when playing the Cats so I like them to keep this close.
Stadium Record
Since last season, the Suns hold a 4-6 record at Metricon Stadium. The Cats haven't played at Metricon Stadium since Round 7, 2017 and they lost that match by 25 points versus the Suns.
Head to Head Record
The Cats are 6-2 against the Suns since 2010.
Best Bet
Essendon Bombers v Richmond Tigers
Saturday, June 2 7:25pm, MCG
The MCG plays host to the Bombers and the Tigers in the traditional Dreamtime matchup. This should be a cracking contest with both sides up and about. The Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 matches and they recorded a 105-77 win against the Saints at the MCG last week. They rank 2nd in the AFL for points scored (101) and haven’t lost at the ‘G this season. The Bombers are back in form after 2 wins as they’ve thrashed the Giants and Cats. They haven’t beaten the Tigers since 2014 but they’re playing well enough at the moment. After playing interstate, they’re 12-7 against the line and 23-10 when they’re the underdog at home. So get on the Bombers at the line.
Stadium Record
In 2018, the Bombers hold a 1-3 record at MCG and the Tigers hold a 7-0 record.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 9-5 against the Bombers.
Best Bet
West Coast Eagles v St Kilda Saints
Saturday, June 2 8:10pm, Optus Stadium
Round 11 continues with the Eagles up against the Saints at Optus Stadium. The Eagles are flying high at the moment and it’s hard to back against them. They accounted for the Hawks last week which extended their streak to 9 wins. They’re also 4-0 at home and that should be 5-0 after this one. The Saints are 0-5 in away games and lost 89-59 at this venue a few weeks back. They haven’t beaten the Eagles in Perth since 2010 (5-0) so I like the home side at the line. They’re 4-1 ATS at Optus Stadium and 16-9 ATS in WA after a win.
Stadium Record
In 2018, the Eagles are 5-1 at Optus Stadium. This season, the Saints are 0-1 at Optus Stadium. Which they lost against the Dockers in Round 8.
Head to Head Record
Since 2010, the Eagles are 8-3 against the Saints.
Best Bet
North Melbourne Kangaroos v Brisbane Lions
Sunday, June 3 1:10pm, Etihad Stadium
Round 11 continues with the Kangaroos up against the Lions at Etihad Stadium. Last year, these two sides played off for the spoon but the Kangaroos have turned their fortunes around. They sit 5th on the ladder with a 6-4 record and they’ve won 2 in a row. They rank 1st in the AFL for points allowed and the likes of Brown and Waite are proving hard to stop up forward. Looking at the Lions, they have a 1-4 win-loss record in their last 5 matches. They are only scoring 76.4 points per match, which ranks 13th in the AFL. So it's hard to see them competing with them. In the end, North is 4-0 against the Lions and 6-0 in Melbourne since 2010. The margins haven’t been close in recent times so take the Kangaroos at the line.
Stadium Record
In 2018, the Kangaroos are 2-2 at Etihad Stadium and the Lions are 0-2.
Head to Head Record
The Kangaroos are 9-3 against the Lions.
Best Bet
Collingwood Magpies v Fremantle Dockers
Sunday, June 3 3:20pm, MCG
AFL football continues with the Magpies playing the Dockers at the MCG in this clash. The Magpies are looking the better side in terms of ladder position as they sit 8th on the ladder, compared to the 12th placed Dockers. In terms of points scored, the Magpies rank 5th in the AFL and the Dockers rank 14th, which should be the difference. The away side just can’t find goal scoring options and that will likely continue on Sunday. Which they showed in a 110-33 loss last time at the MCG. The Pies need to win this for their top eight position and they beat them 85-37 in the last clash at the ‘G. Pies at the line.
Stadium Record
In 2018, the Magpies hold a 2-4 record at MCG and the Dockers are 0-1. They lost against the Tigers by 77 points.
Head to Head Record
Since 2010, the Magpies are 5-3 against the Dockers.
Best Bet
Adelaide Crows v GWS Giants
Sunday, June 3 4:40pm, Adelaide Oval
Round 11 concludes with the Crows hosting the Giants at the Adelaide Oval on Sunday. Both sides were awful last week but the Crows have the advantage as they look to rebound at home. They were blown off the park by the Demons but the Giants are lacking any sort of form to do the same. They are scoring just 76.8 points per match, which ranks 12th in the AFL. They’ve also never beaten the Crows in Adelaide and have lost all 4 by 20+ points, which is the line. After a defeat, the Crows are 8-3 ATS at home so I love the trend and their ability to rebound from a shocking performance.
Stadium Record
In 2018, the Crows are 4-2 at Adelaide Oval. The Giants are 1-5 here in their short history.
Head to Head Record
The Crows are 8-1 against the Giants since 2010.
Best Bet
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Words: Matt Abrahams
