Collingwood Magpies v Western Bulldogs
Friday, May 25 7:50pm, Etihad Stadium
Etihad Stadium plays host to the Magpies and the Bulldogs in AFL footy on Friday. Each team is just outside the top eight so the stakes are extra high. The Magpies are coming off a comfortably victory over the Saints by 28 points. Last week, the Bulldogs easily lost in the wet against the Crows at the Adelaide Oval by 37 points. The Doggies do have a 5-0 record against the Magpies but I think that changes in this one. Collingwood has a major advantage with Brodie Grundy in the ruck as he’s in All Australian form. So the Pies midfield should be able to feed their forward line to a 1-39 victory.
Stadium Record
This season, the Magpies hold a 1-0 record at Etihad Stadium. They beat the Saints by 28 points. In 2018, the Bulldogs are 3-2 at Etihad Stadium.
Head to Head Record
The Magpies are 6-5 against the Bulldogs but the Dogs have won the last 5.
Best Bet
Richmond Tigers v St Kilda Saints
Saturday, May 26 1:45pm, MCG
The MCG plays host to the Tigers and the Saints in AFL footy on Saturday. The Tigers are looking the better side in terms of ladder position as they sit 2nd on the ladder, compared to the 16th placed Saints. In terms of points scored, the Tigers rank 3rd in the AFL and will be looking to rebound after the Eagles loss. They love playing at the MCG and that should be the difference against St Kilda. Since a draw against the Giants, the Saints have looked like a bottom 4 side. They are scoring just 65.11 points per match, which ranks dead last in the AFL. Their goal kicking woes will likely not change at the MCG. In defence, they also allow 93.44 points on average in season 2018. So the Tigers should win by 1-39 because they probably won’t be 100% back to their best and Riewoldt is in some doubt.
Stadium Record
In 2018, the Tigers are 6-0 at MCG. The Saints lost both matches here last season.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers hold a 7-4 record against the Saints.
Best Bet
Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans
Saturday, May 26 4:35pm, Gabba
Round 10 continues with the Lions hosting the Swans at the Gabba on Saturday. The Swans should be confident of victory as they sit 5th on the ladder, compared to the 17th placed Lions. However, Brisbane were super against the Hawks last week as they finally broke through for a win. They’ve enjoyed playing at the Gabba recently and the last result against the Swans here was 97-94. So in the betting, I do like the overs. The last 2 matches at the Gabba have been high scoring and goal kicking has not been a problem. I find it hard to see the Lions defence stopping Buddy so he could have a field day. The Lions also should be able to have success against the Swans small defence.
Stadium Record
This season, the Lions hold a 1-3 record at Gabba. The Swans haven't played at Gabba since Round 6, 2016 and they won that match by 3 points.
Head to Head Record
The Swans hold a 10-0 record against the Lions.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats v Carlton Blues
Saturday, May 26 7:25pm, Kardinia Park
Kardinia Park plays host to the Cats and the Blues in AFL footy on Saturday. Fun fact - This is the first matchup at this venue between the 2 sides since 1997. Both sides put together terrible results last week but Geelong is setup for the rebound at the Cattery. They thrashed the Blues 123-58 last season and this should be similar. The young Blues will find it hard to stop Dangerfield, Selwood and co. The return of Ed Curnow helps but Murphy could miss again. They are scoring just 67.44 points per match, which ranks 17th in the AFL. In their defence, they allow 106.56 points on average in season 2018. So get on the Cats at the line because this could get ugly, like what the Demons did to the Blues last week.
Stadium Record
In 2018, the Cats are 2-1 at Kardinia Park. The Blues haven't played here since 1997.
Head to Head Record
Dating back to 2010, the Cats are 8-2 against the Blues.
Best Bet
GWS Giants v Essendon Bombers
Saturday, May 26 7:25pm, Spotless Stadium
On Saturday night, the Giants and Bombers meet at Spotless Stadium. Each team is just outside the top eight so this a key matchup. The Giants are coming off a 69-112 loss against the Kangaroos and haven’t looked themselves lately. The Bombers recorded an easy but unexpected 84-50 win against the Cats at the MCG. Their tackling pressure was back and hopefully they do the same against GWS. The Giants injury crisis is concerning so I do like the Bombers at the line. The last 3 meetings have been close and this should be no different.
Stadium Record
In 2018, the Giants are 1-1 at Spotless Stadium. The Bombers haven't played at Spotless Stadium since Round 11, 2017, which they lost by 16 points against the Giants.
Head to Head Record
The Bombers hold a 4-3 record against the Giants.
Best Bet
Hawthorn Hawks v West Coast Eagles
Sunday, May 27 1:10pm, Etihad Stadium
On Sunday afternoon, the Hawks and Eagles meet at Etihad Stadium. The Eagles made a huge statement in Round 9 as they outclassed the Tigers by 47 points. They rank 2nd in the AFL for points scored (103) and also rank highly (4th) for points against. For the Hawks, they have a 2-3 win-loss record in their last 5 matches. They are coming off a very disappointing 73-129 loss to the Lions. They have been a good scoring team (90.67 points per match) so they will need to find something in defence to stop the Eagles. Which I don’t see happening. Jack Darling is proving hard to stop and the Eagles defence is playing with superb confidence. They also hold a 3-0 record when they travel this season.
Stadium Record
This season, the Hawks hold a 0-1 record at Etihad Stadium. They lost against the Kangaroos by 28 points. The Eagles are 1-0 at Etihad Stadium in 2018. They beat the Bulldogs by 51 points.
Head to Head Record
The Hawks are 9-4 against the Eagles since 2010.
Best Bet
Melbourne Demons v Adelaide Crows
Sunday, May 27 3:20pm, Alice Springs
Alice Springs hosts the Demons and the Crows in AFL footy on Sunday. This should be one of the matches of the round as both sides sit in the top four. Last time out, the Demons trashed the Blues at the MCG by a score of 159-50. The Crows earned a victory in the wet last match against the Bulldogs by 37 points. In this matchup, free flowing points should be on the agenda between two of the best scoring teams. The home side is ranked 1st in the AFL for points scored (104.44) and the away side has scored 93.33 points per match. So I like the both teams to score 80+ points. Taking out last week’s wet match, the Crows have scored 80+ in 7 of 8 matches this season. The Demons have scored 100+ in their 4 match winning streak.
Stadium Record
This is the first match for the Demons at Alice Springs since Round 10, 2017 and they won that match by 35 points. The Crows have never played at Alice Springs.
Head to Head Record
Since 2010, the Crows are 6-4 against the Demons.
Best Bet
Both Teams to Score 80+ Points - Yes $1.95
Fremantle Dockers v North Melbourne Kangaroos
Sunday, May 27 4:40pm, Optus Stadium
Round 10 concludes with the Dockers and Kangaroos meeting at Optus Stadium. The Kangaroos are 3-2 in their last 5 matches and they were very impressive last match against the Giants in a 43 point win. For the Dockers, they were well beaten by the Swans last week by 59 points. But they’re 4-1 at home and pushed the Eagles a few weeks ago. This is arguably the toughest pick of the round, which is what the odds say. So I would get on the unders. It’s 4-2 in this matchup and both 2017 meetings were low scoring.
Stadium Record
This season, the Dockers are 4-1 at Optus Stadium. The Kangaroos have never played at Optus Stadium.
Head to Head Record
Since 2010, the Dockers are 7-5 against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
For the latest AFL Round 10 markets, click here.
Words: Matt Abrahams
