Richmond Tigers v Collingwood Magpies
Friday, September 21 7:50pm, MCG
An absolute blockbuster awaits AFL fans on Friday night when the Richmond Tigers take on the Collingwood Magpies. The Tigers start as favourites once again as they look for a second successive Grand Final appearance. They also put their 22 game winning streak on the line against the desperate Magpies.
Last week, Collingwood fans rejoiced as their side broke a 6 year finals drought. They had the Giants number in the first quarter, kicking 3.6 and keeping GWS goalless. However, the margin should have been a lot larger as they wasted a number of opportunities. But in the end, the better side won. Brodie Grundy continued his stellar season with 38 hit-outs and 18 disposals. Which basically meant the Pies midfield had a field day. As a result, the likes of Sidebottom, Adams, Philips, Treloar and Pendlebury were all dominant around the clearances. Up forward, Jordan de Goey was incredibly dangerous as kicked 3 goals. Their defence was equally as dominant as well. Goldsack kept Cameron to a single goal. Maynard quelled the influence of Toby Greene. So the Magpies will head into this game full of confidence after finally winning a final under Nathan Buckley. But this Tigers side won’t make the same mistakes as the Giants. They comfortably took care of the Hawks in the first week of the finals and also have the wood over the Pies this season. Both meetings were pretty similar as the Magpies held on for 3 quarters but the class of the Tigers proved the difference. Since 2015, Richmond holds a 6-1 record against them and I just can’t see them dropping this game. The value in this one should be the Tigers 1-39. Their average winning margin in this 4 game winning streak against Collingwood is 26.25. Overall in their last 5 games at the ‘G, the 1-39 margin has saluted.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 9-6 at the MCG in 2018. But have struggled against top 8 sides (2-6). Dating back to last season, Richmond are 22-0 at the MCG!
Head to Head Record
Richmond has beaten Collingwood twice this season. In Round 6, they dominated the Magpies in the second half to win by 43 points. Then in Round 19, Richmond again were too good running out 28 point winners.
Best Bet
West Coast Eagles v Melbourne Demons
Saturday, September 22 3:20pm, Optus Stadium
The AFL finals head across the country as the West Coast Eagles host the Melbourne Demons at Optus Stadium on Saturday afternoon. This should be another epic final, especially since the sides met just a few weeks ago at this venue. On that occasion, Melbourne stunned the home side with a 17 point win, which has probably spurred this dominant finals run so far. In week 1, they outclassed the Cats at the ‘G with their tackling pressure a key highlight. Then in the semi-finals, they brought a similar game style to take down the Hawks by 33 points. James Harmes continues to impress and showed he can not only gather the footy but stop the oppositions best player. In the end, he kept Tom Mitchell to 24 disposals and Harmes finished with 11 tackles. The other story of the season for the Dees has been Max Gawn. He dominated McEvoy with 41 hitouts and even snuck in a goal! The injury to Nic Nat for the Eagles could prove costly as they look to stop Gawn and his midfield. West Coast will be the slight favourites with home field advantage and the benefit of the bye. They survived against the Magpies in week 1 of the finals with a 16 point win. So I think this should be a similar margin. Especially since the last meeting here resulted in a 17 point margin for the away side. So in a close final, I can’t split these two sides and will be going for the either team to win by under 24.5 points. This bet is 3-0 when the Eagles play the Demons in Perth and with the added pressure of finals, this trend should continue on Saturday.
Stadium Record
West Coast are building a fortress at Optus Stadium as they’ve won 10 of 13 at this venue. Melbourne won their only clash at this venue just a few weeks ago and have a 4-1 interstate record in 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Demons have won 2 straight against the Eagles since last season. The average winning margin is just 10 points.
Best Bet
Triple Margin II - Any Other Result (Either Team Under 24.5) $1.77
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