2017 AFL Season Teams Preview
Equalisation, salary caps, free agency and drafts were designed to make the AFL an even competition. That notion was heavily debated this time last year with Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong winning 9 of 11 premierships, but the Western Bulldogs’ 2016 triumph has changed everything. Their exhilarating finals series and first Grand Final victory since 1954 has given all clubs, players and supporters hope that their team can win the 2017 premiership. This club by club analysis of the 2017 Toyota AFL Premiership Season will help you decide whether that hope is warranted or simply fool’s gold.
Adelaide ($11)
The Crows started Round 23 last season in second place. A home victory over a travelled West Coast who were without Nic Naitanui would have secured a double chance and a home final. They lost and were ultimately not good enough as they lost to Sydney in the semi-finals. Their attack is potent with Taylor Walker, Josh Jenkins, Eddie Betts and Tom Lynch. They have arguably the best tall defender in the game, Daniel Talia, and two quality rebounding defenders, Brodie Smith and Rory Laird. Their second tall defender remains a query as Kyle Hartigan is sometimes undersized. Rory Sloane is the heart of the midfield. He is supported by Scott Thompson, the Crouch brothers and ruckman Sam Jacobs. Their midfield depth and pace will be tested again in 2017. They will be hoping that younger players Charlie Cameron and Rory Atkins can spend some time in the middle. There were not many list changes over the off-season, with developing midfielder Jarryd Lyons’ move to the Gold Coast the main departure. I expect Adelaide to win most of their home games and pick up enough away wins to push for finals again.
Predicted Finish: 4-8.
Brisbane ($201)
If it wasn’t for WADA suspending twelve Essendon players then Brisbane would have finished last in 2016. They won 3 games for the season, had long-term injuries to key players, cut ties with their coach Justin Leppitsch and lost playmaker Pearce Hanley in the trade period. The good news is they secured Chris Fagan from Hawthorn as their senior coach and David Noble from Adelaide as their General Manager of Football. They welcome back new captain Dayne Beams to the midfield to support Tom Rockcliff, Allen Christensen and Dayne Zorko. Their spine is young but building. Key talls Josh Schache, Eric Hipwood, Michael Close and Daniel McStay have all shown glimpses within their short careers. They have also secured the highly talented Hugh McCluggage with the third pick in the draft. The problem is a new coach and a large group of young players takes time. The Lions are hoping for more wins than last year, but it looks like a slow build.
Predicted Finish: 14-18.
Carlton ($201)
Brendon Bolton took over as coach last year and had an immediate impact. Wins over Geelong, Collingwood and Melbourne, gave credence to the belief they were on the right track. Their 7 wins exceeded expectations, especially with skipper Marc Murphy missing a lot of football last year through injury. They had more wins in the off-season by retaining Bryce Gibbs and were a large player in the draft for the second straight year. The negative news is young gun Patrick Cripps has been sidelined during preseason with a back injury and they have lost running defender Zach Tuohy in the trade period. In exchange Carlton received Billie Smedts who only managed 38 games in six seasons at Geelong. 2017 is another development year for the Blues with the likes of Jacob Weitering, Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, Caleb Marchbank (traded in from the Giants), David Cunningham and Jack Silvagni gaining more experience and exposure. 2017 will not be their year, but it is another plank as they build from the ground up.
Predicted Finish: 14-18.
Collingwood ($21)
Nathan Buckley took over as coach after consecutive grand final appearances. From there Collingwood slowly slid down the ladder and have not played finals since 2013, but after five years of moulding the playing group and club culture, Buckley himself stated 2017 is finals or bust. While they have midfield stars such as Scott Pendlebury, Adam Treloar and Steele Sidebottom, their rise largely depends on their younger brigade, targeted free agents and Ben Reid’s fitness. Reid was All-Australian in 2011, but has had no continuity in recent years. Classy, but injury prone Daniel Wells comes from North Melbourne, while Chris Mayne will be hoping to recapture his 2013 form and support rising star Darcy Moore and the returning Jamie Elliott. It is time for the likes of De Goey, Adams, Oxley and Fasolo to turn their talent and potential into consistent performances. In other changes, Will Hoskin-Elliott is a good pick up and losing Travis Cloke and Nathan Brown might not have a big effect as both played reserves football during 2016. Brownlow Medallist Dane Swan has retired, but he only played ten minutes last year. Collingwood leaked goals at times last year and their key forwards and defenders are not settled, but I’m still bullish about the Pies as I like their youngsters.
Predicted Finish: 6-10.
Essendon ($41)
After enduring the worst period in the club’s long history, Essendon finally sees blue skies. ASADA/WADA is now officially the past, and they welcome back ten of the twelve suspended players including Jobe Watson, new captain Dyson Heppell, Michael Hurley and Cale Hooker. Essendon fought bravely last year and found a superstar in Zac Merrett. Number one draft pick Andrew McGrath will be a good player and I wouldn’t be surprised if his skills and speed are on display in 2017. The big question is how well the playing group gel together. The returning players have not played under John Worsfold and adjusting to the game plan with large personnel changes could take time. Joe Daniher was sensational up forward last year, but he needs help. Hooker is an option, but his best football is down back. Essendon is the hardest team to predict in 2017 due to the unprecedented circumstances and it would not be a shock if they finished Top 4 or missed the finals. I’ll take the easy route and hedge my bets in the middle.
Predicted Finish: 6-10.
Fremantle ($26)
What happened to Fremantle last year? They won four games and finished third last after winning the minor premiership and playing a home preliminary final in 2015. There were reasons such as losing stars Nat Fyfe, Aaron Sandilands and Michael Johnson for most of the year, and big recruit Harley Bennell never played a game. Throw in form issues for Hayden Ballantyne, Danyle Pearce, Garrick Ibbotson and Nick Suban, and a shift in coaching philosophies, and that gives some answers. The horror presented opportunities and Lachie Neale announced himself, Michael Walters confirmed his talent, while Alex Pearce, Connor Blakely and Lachie Weller gave an insight into the future. Club legend Matthew Pavlich has retired and Chris Mayne has left, but the ins are notable. Bradley Hill joins his brother, likely forwards Shane Kersten and Cameron McCarthy come in and fullback Joel Hamling arrives after an outstanding finals series for the Bulldogs. Off-field problems have seen promising forward Shane Yarran leave the club and Alex Pearce has had another injury setback. The Dockers will climb up the ladder with the return of key players and handy recruits, the question is how far?
Predicted Finish: 7-11.
Geelong ($11)
After eight consecutive finals appearances, four grand finals and three premierships the Cats run finally appeared over in 2015, however it was short lived. Geelong bounced back last year on the back of some sharp recruiting, headlined by Patrick Dangerfield. He joined inspiration skipper Joel Selwood to form the best one-two punch in the competition. While Selwood and Dangerfield were impenetrable, they needed the next wave to push through. Unfortunately, Mitch Duncan, Steven Motlop and Mark Blicvas never found their best form and ultimately Geelong were bundled out in the preliminary final. It will be different 2017 Geelong side. Brownlow and Norm Smith Medallist Jimmy Bartel has retired and one of Geelong’s all-time greats Corey Enright has also hung up the boots. Josh Caddy was a surprise trade, and talented pair Kersten and Nathan Vardy went cheaply. Tuohy is a handy recruit, but most of the improvement needs to come from within. Jackson Thurlow is a welcome inclusion after missing all of 2016, Daniel Menzel will hopefully stay injury-free while Scott Selwood has had his first uninterrupted preseason for some time. If youngsters Nakia Cookatoo, Darcy Lang, Lincoln McCarthy and Cory Gregson can take the next step, and Harry Taylor’s transition to attack is successful then Geelong will be around the mark again.
Predicted Finish: 3-7.
Gold Coast ($34)
2016 was another disappointing season for the Gold Coast Suns. They finished fifteenth with 6 wins. To be fair it would be hard for most teams to compete with their injury rate, but sidelined stars has become too common for the Suns. Gary Ablett, David Swallow, Dion Prestia, Jaeger O’Meara and Michael Rischitelli missed large chunks of the season. While the midfield was decimated, the bookends at either end are good. Steven May and Rory Thompson down back, with Tom Lynch and Peter Wright up forward. Their other problem is their retention rate. After losing Bennell and Charlie Dixon the previous year, the Suns lost Prestia and O’Meara this year. Throw in doubt over Ablett’s future and it’s difficult to know where the Suns fit in the scheme of things. Surely with all their talent and draft concessions they are better than a bottom four side, plus they had four picks in the Top 10 in this year’s draft, but I still have questions. What’s happening with Brandon Matera and Trent McKenzie and why can’t the exciting Aaron Hall lock in a position? If things go right they could play finals for the first time, but they do not install a lot of confidence.
Predicted Finish: 12-16.
Greater Western Sydney ($3.75)
There is only one word to describe the Giants and that is scary. They have top end talent all over the field. Jeremy Cameron, Jon Patton, Devon Smith, Toby Greene and Rory Lobb up forward. Dylan Shiel, Ryan Griffen, Stephen Coniglio, Tom Scully, Callan Ward, Josh Kelly, Lachie Whitfield and the raging bull Shane Mumford in the middle. Phil Davis, Heath Shaw and Nick Hayes down back. Add in a host of academy picks, number two draft pick Tim Taranto and silky recruit Brett Deledio, and that makes scary. A potential rebuttal is their age and experience but the Giants are not kids anymore. In fact, they are the third most experienced outfit in the competition and encase you weren’t convinced they have the burning desire after last year’s heartbreaking preliminary final loss to the Bulldogs. They are the team to beat in 2017 and beyond.
Predicted Finish: 1-4.
Hawthorn ($9.50)
The Hawks were trying to create history last season by winning their fourth consecutive premiership. They positioned themselves at the end of the home and away season but 2016 was not their year as they went out in straight sets. Since the semi-final defeat things have certainly changed. Club great Sam Mitchell and vice-captain Jordan Lewis were traded for low end draft picks, while pacey wingman Hill returned to Western Australia. They have brought in the extremely talented O’Meara who hasn’t played senior football for two years, Tom Mitchell from Sydney and the maligned Ty Vickery. Their other big recruit is versatile star Jarryd Roughead who has overcome cancer and was bestowed the captaincy. Alastair Clarkson will continue to tinker the game plan but what won’t change is Hawthorn’s elite kicking skills. The loss of Mitchell and Lewis, combined with ageing stars Luke Hodge, Shaun Burgoyne and Josh Gibson suggests a slide, but they have too many good players (i.e. Cyril Rioli) to write them off.
Predicted Finish: 3-7.
Melbourne ($21)
It was another step in the right direction for the Demons last year. They won 10 games, finished eleventh on the ladder and convincingly defeated Hawthorn late in the season. Nathan Jones was well supported by Jack Viney, Bernie Vince and Dom Tyson, while Jack Watts had his best season. Max Gawn was the best ruckman in the competition last year and now add in Lewis. Throw in youngsters Jesse Hogan, Christian Petracca, Angus Brayshaw, Clayton Oliver, Christian Salem and Sam Weideman and the future looks bright. There is no doubt Melbourne needs to keep adding to their depth, particularly down back. Tom McDonald is a fine player and Michael Hibberd’s acquisition from Essendon will help. For the first time in a long time finals are a genuine prospect in 2017. It will largely depend on whether their younger players are ready to play a full season of consistent football. The final consideration is Paul Roos’ departure. After three years at the helm he hands a developing team to untried coach Simon Goodwin. The transition has been well planned and hopefully that minimises any setbacks.
Predicted Finish: 9-13.
North Melbourne ($51)
North Melbourne won their first 9 games last season and made the finals, however many expect the Kangaroos to fall in 2017. They let go of veterans Brent Harvey, Drew Petrie, Nick Dal Santo and Michael Firrito, and Wells has gone to Collingwood. It’s a total of 1588 games that walked out the door and that experience is not immediately replaceable. It means extra responsibility lies upon Jack Ziebell, Ben Cunnginton, Shaun Higgins, Robbie Tarrant, Ben Brown and Todd Goldstein who was hampered by injury last year. Mason Wood looks a good young player and we have seen glimpses of Kayne Turner and Taylor Garner, but North Melbourne’s tendency to target free agency and trade in the past few years has restricted their youth stocks. The Kangaroos will be hoping to regenerate, but that generally means a step or two back before going forward as the rigours of playing AFL and synchronising as a team takes time. The positive is they have not received a nightmare draw like last year. The Kangaroos finished eighth last season and they look a weaker side in 2017.
Predicted Finish: 11-15.
Port Adelaide ($34)
When Ken Hinkley took over the Power were playing dispirited football at times, struggling to draw crowds and battling financially. He injected energy, superior fitness and belief and they played finals in his first year. Port Adelaide then came within a kick of the 2014 Grand Final and were on the march. However, they have gone backwards since then. The competition increased their running capacity and studied Port’s gun and run style. 2017 is a new year and Port Adelaide has a string of matchwinners at their disposal: Robbie Gray, Travis Boak, Ollie Wines, Chad Wingard, Charlie Dixon and Patty Ryder returning from suspension. Yet, it’s the next line of players that could hold the key to the Power’s destiny. Hamish Hartlett and Justin Westhoff symbolise Port’s potential; they are dangerous and capable of impacting matches, but they can go missing and underperform. The other query surrounds the game plan. When things went wrong last year Port Adelaide became more aggressive and took more risks. Instead of hitting the accelerator, will they use the brakes and slow the game down to arrest control, like most teams? They are a hard team to predict because the gap between their best and worst is grand, but the home ground advantage at Adelaide Oval will help.
Predicted Finish: 6-10.
Richmond ($41)
After making the finals three years in a row, Richmond thought it was their time and they recruited Chris Yarran to boost their 2016 premiership credentials. Their predictions were wrong as they plummeted to thirteenth on the ladder and Yarran left Tigerland never playing a game for his new club. Richmond’s top end is as good as any in the competition. Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin in the middle, Jack Riewoldt up forward and they have the best defender in the league in Alex Rance. Deledio use to form a dangerous quintet but he is now a Giant. His loss could be significant as the Tigers struggled without him in recent times. Their other list changes included recruiting Prestia and Caddy, but they lost Vickery. Their depth will again be challenged in 2017 as they rely on too few. Who is going to support Riewoldt and Rance? Will Prestia and Caddy’s arrival mean Martin can play more forward? Will role players such as Sam Lloyd and Dylan Grimes take their games to the next level? The myriad of questions throws up uncertainty and the Tigers have been hard to trust for nearly forty years.
Predicted Finish: 10-14.
St Kilda ($23)
After just missing out on the 2009 and 2010 premierships, St Kilda returned to the pack and aggressively rebuilt. Brendon Goddard and Dal Santo were allowed to exit through free agency, while promising ruckman Ben McEvoy was traded just as he was entering his prime. In return the Saints received top end draft picks and they built from the ground up. They are now reaping the rewards of their strategic risks. Patty McCartin, Josh Bruce and Tim Membrey form a multipronged attack. Jack Stevens, Seb Ross, Luke Dunstan, David Armitage and Jack Billings offer pace and hardness, while Nathan Brown and Jake Carlisle have come into the club and will form the defensive posts. Throw in a couple of experienced stars who are not slowing down in Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna and the mix looks good. The midfield does not have the elite names like other clubs, but if a few of their youngsters keep developing they might just become that. While the Saints have weapons up front and young talent, they build their game around defensive pressure, and that will be the cornerstone of their 2017 campaign. In off-season news St Kilda recruited handy pickups Jack Steele and Koby Stevens, but experienced defender Sam Fisher has moved on. I like what the Saints are cooking and finals is definitely achievable.
Predicted Finish: 8-12.
Sydney ($7.50)
The Swans have some of the biggest names in the competition: Lance Franklin, Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker, Dan Hannebery, Kieren Jack and Kurt Tippett. They are joined by rising stars Isaac Heeney and Callum Mills, as well as reliable defenders Heath Grundy, Jarrad McVeigh and Dane Rampe. They finished top of the ladder last year and entered the 2016 Grand Final as favourites, but things didn’t go their way. Franklin was hurt early and Hannebery went down early in the last quarter. Besides Kennedy and Grundy who were brilliant, their other stars were below their best. They eventually lost the Grand Final by 22 points and it was their second Grand Final defeat in three years. Both times they were favourites. It has been an interesting shift in the Swans psyche. They used to be thought of as hardworking and relentless, but after some high-profile recruitment they are now viewed as a glamour team. While the top end is elite, the focus is on Sydney’s bottom end. Can they improve enough to enable success, especially considering ball magnet Tom Mitchell has gone to Hawthorn? It is a question that probably won’t be answered until late in season, but that’s alright with the Swans because that means they will be thereabouts in 2017.
Predicted Finish: 2-6.
West Coast ($10)
The Eagles were coming off a Grand Final appearance and were hoping to go one better in 2016. They encountered a challenging early draw and were unable to beat some good teams away from home. From there it was a battle to stay within reach of the top teams. It seemed to change in the final three rounds of the season when they beat the Giants in Sydney, Hawthorn, and Adelaide away from home, but a shock elimination loss to the Bulldogs ended their season in the first round of the finals. The Eagles resurgence coincided with Nic Naitanui’s return, however a late season knee injury has all but ruled out his 2017. Knowing their premiership window is open the Eagles have recruited Vardy and Petrie to fill the void. While they could be handy recruits, the acquisition of Hawthorn champion Sam Mitchell is the prized signature. He joins Matthew Priddis on the inside and allows Luke Shuey and Andrew Gaff to play more outside football. If they can conjure some clearance cohesion then they have reigning Coleman Medallist Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling to kick it to. Their backline is led by Jeremy McGovern who sets up attack as much as defence by his compelling intercept marking. The Eagles are hard to beat at home, but questions still remain about their ability to win on the road, particularly at the MCG. The ground dimensions extend their defensive structures and at times creates holes. 2017 centres on Naitanui’s absence and a wishful return to full fitness and form.
Predicted Finish: 4-8.
Western Bulldogs ($5)
Sixty-two years of pain and suffering ended last year as the Western Bulldogs won the premiership. It was a fairy tale victory and the euphoria was palpable. The Bulldog’s finals series was arguably the greatest ever final series in the history of the game. They finished seventh after the home and away season. They lost key players throughout the year including inspiration captain Bob Murphy. They then beat the rampaging Eagles in Perth, the reigning three-time champs the Hawks, the talented Giants in Sydney and the star-stuttered Swans at the MCG. Incredible. As they aim for back to back flags they welcome back Murphy, mobile forward Stewart Crameri from suspension and Mitch Wallis, while Travis Cloke has arrived from Collingwood. It will be interesting to see the Bulldogs’ forward line after Tom Boyd arrived on Grand Final day. He showed why he is a million-dollar man and went number one in the draft. They have lost their fullback Hamling to the Dockers and his departure will cause some reshuffling. The Bulldogs success was based on relentless conviction, contested footy, quick hands and twenty-two committed players. Their coach Luke Beveridge likes to stay ahead of the game and he knows the pack is coming. What does he have up his sleeve? The Bulldogs were not the best team in 2016, they were the best team in September 2016. I don’t feel they are the best team coming into 2017, but they have already shown anything can happen.
Predicted Finish: 3-7.
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