Geelong v Western Bulldogs
19 May, Simonds Stadium
Geelong suffered a third straight defeat, while the Dogs pushed the Eagles in Perth but went down. There are problems at the Cattery. Teams are carving through them and last week’s tackle count emphasised their defensive issues. Last year they lifted against good teams and they will need to this week against the reigning premiers. The Bulldogs were gallant but undermanned in the west. They rely on 22 contributors and sustained effort. To aid their cause they get Morris, Murphy, Cloke, Wallis and Dickson back, while M. Boyd and Liberatore are omitted. Geelong also have two good inclusions in Henderson and S. Selwood. The Cats have owned the Dogs in recent times and love their home deck, but large question marks surround Geelong. This match could go either way, so go with the home team.
Stadium Record
The Cats have won 12 of their last 13 at home. Their only lost during that time was to Sydney last year. The Dogs have lost their last seven at Simonds. Their last win there was in 2003.
Head to Head Record
Geelong has won the last 10 against the Dogs. They won both encounters last year by 25 and 57 points.
Best Bet
Geelong win $1.90.
St Kilda v Sydney
20 May, Etihad Stadium
St Kilda fought off a determined Carlton, while Sydney played their best football for the year to defeat North Melbourne. The Saints have won their last three due to a balanced and healthy line-up. Their pace is suited to Etihad and their young midfield group continue growing. Last week was Dunston’s turn to shine. The Swans good players played well and it made a significant difference. Kennedy, Parker, Hannebery and Heeney were all terrific. For some reason the Swans really enjoy Etihad too. This looks like a good game especially with Rampe, Rohan and Tippett back. The Saints made a statement two weeks ago when they beat the Giants, it’s time to do it again and beat the once feared Swans with pace, defensive pressure and multiple goalkicking options.
Stadium Record
St Kilda has won 4 of their last 5 at Etihad. Their only loss was to Geelong. Sydney has won 11 of their last 12 at Etihad. They are 1-1 there this year.
Head to Head Record
Sydney has won the last 6 by an average of 57 points. They beat the Saints by 70 points last year.
Best Bet
St Kilda win $1.75.
GWS v Richmond
20 May, Spotless Stadium
GWS found a way to win thanks to Johnson’s late goal, while Richmond found a way to lose. GWS are learning to win without playing their best football and that is always a good sign. What is not good is their injury list. Coniglio is out again and he would have likely gone to Cotchin or Martin. Richmond was outplayed for three quarters and then changed the game in the middle. They gathered ascendency and early goals in the last quarter fuelled belief. Much has been made about that last goal, however Neale gathered the ball from a Sandiland’s fumble and his delivery was outstanding. Yes, Richmond should have guarded the back of the square, but Fremantle’s setup was excellent. The Tigers have now lost three in a row, but the Giants are gettable. They are only just winning at home and Richmond is not afraid of traveling. They also have Presita back.
Stadium Record
In three matches Richmond has never lost at Spotless Stadium. However, they have not played there since 2014.
Head to Head Record
GWS recorded their first win over Richmond last year. It was an 88 point smashing.
Best Bet
Richmond at the line +25.5 $1.90.
Brisbane v Adelaide
20 May, Gabba
Brisbane is bottom of the ladder, while Adelaide is still on top even though they have lost their last two. It’s the same story for Brisbane each week. They are young, play well in patches, but are ultimately not ready to win too many games of football. Adelaide’s preseason query was their midfield depth and speed. It has been brought to light again after Sloane was tagged out of the match for the second week running. Teams are also looking at Adelaide’s ability to score goals over the back and are keeping their defenders on the defensive side. Expect Adelaide and Sloane to hit the contest hard and look to blow Brisbane out of the water. The young Lions defenders will struggle containing the Crows forward line if that happens, even with Jenkins’ omission.
Stadium Record
Brisbane has only won 1 of their last 12 home matches. Since 2009, Adelaide has played at the Gabba 6 times for 5 wins.
Head to Head Record
Adelaide has won the last 5 against the Lions. They beat Brisbane by 138 points last year.
Best Bet
Adelaide first quarter line -10.5 $1.82.
Collingwood v Hawthorn
20 May, MCG
The Pies looked to have another scalp in GWS, but lost in the final minute, while the Hawks got the four points in Tasmania. Collingwood seems to play well against certain sides and GWS is one of them. They challenged the Giants with great pressure, but their execution let them down. While the Pies trouble some teams, Hawthorn is not one of them. The Hawks have recently feasted on the Magpies. It’s hard to get a read on Collingwood. Their midfield is very good, but the rest of their game is vulnerable. Meanwhile the Hawks have won the last two but aren’t convincing. Both teams have important injuries (Collingwood- Reid, Hawthorn- Rioli, Stratton and Frawley) and that further complicates the equation. I’m leaning towards Collingwood but they are second last for a reason.
Stadium Record
The Pies have only won 1 of their last 7 at the MCG. That win was against Geelong in Round 6. Hawthorn has won their last 2 at the MCG. Before that they lost 5 in a row.
Head to Head Record
Hawthorn has won the last 9 against the Pies. Collingwood’s last win over the Hawks was an epic 3 point victory in the 2011 preliminary final.
Best Bet
Collingwood win 1-39 $2.20.
Essendon v West Coast
21 May, Etihad Stadium
The Bombers were outstanding in Kelly’s 300th game, while West Coast just beat the Dogs at home. Essendon were bold and silky, while defensively tremendous. Daniher kicked straight and the run and carry through the middle of the ground was led by Merrett. Kenndey kicked 3.6 against the Dogs and it nearly hurt them as they seemed to run out of legs. Even though Hurley didn’t play on Hawkins, he should get Kennedy. The other end looks tight as well and that leaves the midfield battle. West Coast looks to have the edge. The Eagles away record keeps coming up but it’s not all doom and gloom. Their bad record is largely confined to three grounds: the MCG, Simonds Stadium and the SCG.
Stadium Record
Essendon has only won 1 of their last 16 at Etihad. They lost their only game there this year to Melbourne by 38 points. West Coast has won 3 of their last 4 at Etihad, including a 43 point win over North Melbourne this year.
Head to Head Record
West Coast has won the last two by more than 8 goals, however both those games were played at Domain Stadium.
Best Bet
West Coast at the line -11.5 $1.90.
Melbourne v North Melbourne
21 May, MCG
Melbourne had a fantastic win away from home, while North was outplayed by the Swans. It’s been a tough week for the Dees with their young superstar being diagnosed with cancer. It’s been a torrid year for the Hogan family and health and football cannot be compared. North Melbourne has been pretty good this year, even though they have only won two games. They welcome back Waite, who was electric two weeks ago and they enjoy playing the Demons. North has not lost to Melbourne for over ten years. This looks like another game between the ears for the Dees. They have struggled with expectation, but that has to change. I think it starts with the next generation like Viney, Oliver and McDonald as they control a large proportion of their club’s destiny.
Stadium Record
Melbourne has lost their last three at the MCG by 3, 13 and 2 points. North has only played four games at the MCG since 2014 and they split those games 2-2.
Head to Head Record
Melbourne has broken a few hoodoos the last couple of years and they face another one here. North has won the last 15.
Best Bet
Melbourne win 1-39 $2.20.
Fremantle v Carlton
21 May, Domain Stadium
Fremantle clinched victory in the dying stages for the third time this year, while Carlton was once again competitive against the Saints. Mundy’s after the siren goal overshadowed a fantastic third quarter and the carry and delivery of Walters and Hill. Carlton hit the lead in the last quarter but couldn’t sustain it as the Saints won by three goals. Carlton will need to lock down on Fremantle’s good users of the football. Ed Curnow might get one of the Hill brothers or Walters for the afternoon. On the flip side Carlton’s skipper Murphy, will definitely be expecting close attention for Blakley. Fremantle seem to have more forward options and Hamling is a rock down back. Carlton should fight and compete again, but winning away from home against a team that has won five of their last six is a tall order.
Stadium Record
Fremantle has won 4 of their last 6 at home. Their two losses were to West Coast and Geelong. Carlton don’t mind travelling west as they have won 7 of their last 13 at Domain.
Head to Head Record
The Dockers have won 15 of the last 20 games between these teams. However, Carlton upset Fremantle at home last year by 4 points.
Best Bet
Fremantle win 1-39 $2.00.
Bye: Gold Coast and Port Adelaide
Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
