Port Adelaide v Carlton
21 April, Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide are now 2-2 after losing to two good teams in the past fortnight, while the Blues are 1-3. The Power has impressed this year. They have recaptured their attack on the ball and opposition, and have a greater balance between defence and attack. Ryder returns from suspension this week. Carlton are competing every week. Their skipper, Murphy, has been very good this year. His hard running and bringing his teammates into the game sets a good example for his young players. Kreuzer is a big out for the Blues. Even though there is only one game separating these teams, it is a tall order for the Blues. Port has the experience, form and home ground advantage. Expect them to win comfortably.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 1-1 at home this year. They beat the Dockers by 89 points and lost to Adelaide by 17 points. Carlton has only played at the Adelaide Oval once. It was against Port in 2014 and they lost by 103 points.
Head to Head Record
Carlton has won the last two against Port. Both games were in Melbourne and they were both decided by less than a goal.
Best Bet
Port 40+ $1.73
Western Bulldogs v Brisbane
22 April, Etihad Stadium
The Dogs have started the season 3-1, while Brisbane is 1-3. The Dogs good players are playing well: Bontempelli, Liberatore, Johannisen. The ruck is still a concern with no Roughead and Cloke is now out. Brisbane has been competitive so far, but were completely outplayed by the Tigers last week. This looks to be an unbalanced matchup. The Bulldogs are full of premiership heroes from last year and after some percentage. Even though they are not a bombastic side that blows teams away through high scoring, they are up against a young side who showed signs last week that the honeymoon period with the new coach might be over. New captain Dayne Beams has been superb this year and has reminded the competition just how good he is.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs have won 8 of their last 10 at Etihad, including 2 wins from 2 matches this year. Brisbane has lost 6 of their last 7 at Etihad Stadium, including a 31 point loss to St Kilda two weeks ago.
Head to Head Record
These teams have split their last six. Brisbane’s wins were all single digit figures while the Dog’s victories were all over 50 points. The Dogs won their only encounter last year by 53 points.
Best Bet
Brisbane has been jumped the last three weeks. Bulldogs half-time handicap -22.5 $1.85
Gold Coast v Adelaide
22 April, Merticon Stadium
The Gold Coast has resurrected their season with 2 consecutive wins, while the Crows are second on the ladder and undefeated. Lynch was the star last week for the Suns. His seven goals equalled the club’s record. He is a phenomenal athlete who can mark and kick, but he will be up against the ever-reliable Talia. Walker was just as damaging up forward for the Crows last week. May would have been his opponent but he is injured. While the Suns have been good the last two weeks, Adelaide is another proposition. They are humming as a team and have multiple weapons. Gold Coast can’t afford to roll over after setting the bar the last two weeks, but I can’t see them beating the Crows.
Stadium Record
The Suns 86 point flogging of Hawthorn two weeks ago ended a three game losing streak at home. Adelaide has never lost at Metricon Stadium. They are 5 from 5 against the Suns there.
Head to Head Record
Adelaide has never lost to the Suns in 9 games. Their biggest victory was 91 points, while their smallest victory was 28 points.
Best Bet
Adelaide -28.5, $1.90.
Sydney v GWS
22 April, SCG
Sydney are third last on the ladder and has not won a game, meanwhile the Giants are fourth on the ladder and are 3-1. Sydney are battling and fighting and they have some big ins. Tippett, Heeney and Rohan return, yet it is a risk bringing in three players who have been out for a while. It shows just how much they have been missed. The Giants are not at their best but showed just how good they can be in the last quarter against the Power. Scully was great with 32 touches, while Patton and Greene kicked 10 goals between them. The beauty about the Giants is they have many options and do not rely on the same individuals each week. It could be Kelly, Ward, Shiel, Cameron, Smith or Lobb to top the possession tally and goalkicking list this week.
Stadium Record
The Swans lost both their home games this year to Port Adelaide and Collingwood. The Giants have never won at the SCG. They have lost all 4 games there.
Head to Head Record
GWS has won the last two against the Swans, including last year’s qualifying final by 36 points. Before that Sydney won 4 in a row.
Best Bet
GWS -13.5, $1.90.
Fremantle v North Melbourne
22 April, Domain Stadium
Fremantle has turned their season around and are 2-2, while the Roos are 0-4. Fremantle’s 2 point victory was set up by a brilliant third quarter. They were relentless and put on great pressure, and then kicked with precision and confidence when they had the ball. They threw the magnets around and Mundy and Neale kicked seven goals between them. North went down in a close one against the Dogs. They just couldn’t get the job done again but their endeavour was outstanding. There will be a lot of young faces up against each other in this clash, but the game might come down to some familiar names. Sandilands v Goldstein, Fyfe v Ziebell, Hill v Higgins, McCarthy v Tarrant, and Spurr v Thomas. If in doubt, go with the home team.
Stadium Record
The Dockers are 1-1 at home this year. They lost to Geelong but then beat the reigning premiers. North has lost their last 3 at Domain, and 9 of their last 11 since 2011.
Head to Head Record
North has won 3 of the last 4 against the Dockers, including a 31 point victory last year.
Best Bet
Fremantle to win by 1-39, $2.15.
St Kilda v Geelong
23 April, Etihad Stadium
The Saints have won their last 2 to get back to 2-2, while Geelong are undefeated and top of the ladder. St Kilda is developing nicely and hats off to Geary. He took over from arguably St Kilda’s greatest captain and is brave, reliable and dependable. Brown and Carlisle have settled in beside Geary in defence. Hickey is out and will be missed. Geelong smashed their rivals Hawthorn by 86 points and the most pleasing aspect was their better players were Duncan, Motlop and Guthrie. St Kilda will bring their defensive pressure and look to counter through speed, while Geelong has adjusted their game plan. They are bringing it into their forward line less, but with more purpose, and Hawkins and Menzel have benefitted. This game could be decided by goalkicking accuracy. St Kilda’s conservation needs to improve, while Geelong has been outstanding, excluding the first half against the Hawks.
Stadium Record
St Kilda is 2-1 at Etihad this year having beaten Brisbane and Collingwood there in consecutive weeks. Geelong has won both their games there this year, however they could have easily lost both of those games.
Head to Head Record
St Kilda beat Geelong by 3 points last year and these teams drew in 2015. Before that Geelong won 5 in a row against the Saints.
Best Bet
For some reason Geelong can be slow out of the blocks after half time. St Kilda to win the third quarter, $2.23.
Hawthorn v West Coast
23 April, MCG
The Hawks are last, devoid of confidence and are coming off consecutive 86 point defeats. West Coast are 3-1 after beating Sydney at home last week. Hawthorn’s game plan and premierships were based around their foot skills, but right now their kicking is not at AFL standard and they are being punished on the turnover. Experienced players Rioli, Breust, Frawley, Roughead, Puopolo and Gibson need to lift. West Coast’s record at the MCG is not good, particularly against good opposition. It is now time to correct that, against a team that has bullied them at the MCG in recent times. Darling is back and the Eagles must take advantage of the opportunity before them and beat the Hawks at the MCG, even with Mitchell succumbing to his ankle injury.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn has lost their last 5 at the MCG. Last week’s thumping was their heaviest defeat in that time. West Coast has lost 4 of their last 5 at the MCG, including an 11 point loss to Richmond this year.
Head to Head Record
These two teams have split their last 4 games. Before that Hawthorn won 5 in a row. The last time West Coast beat Hawthorn at the MCG was in 2006.
Best Bet
West Coast -15.5, $1.90.
Richmond v Melbourne
24 April, MCG
‘Twas the night before ANZAC Day and it is Richmond v Melbourne. The Tigers are undefeated and third on the ladder, while Melbourne are 2-2. Richmond easily accounted for Brisbane last week and their young small forwards played well. Castagna, Butler and Rioli kicked seven goals between them. Melbourne lapsed for a quarter for the second week in a row and it ultimately cost them the game. They seemed in control against the Dockers, but couldn’t finish the job. Hogan comes back from suspension, while Lewis is still a week away. Hogan has played well against Rance in the past. At the other end McDonald will get Riewoldt. This game will be decided in the middle. Martin, Cotchin, Prestia, Caddy and Ellis against Jones, Vince, Dyson, Oliver and Viney.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 1-1 at the MCG this year and that mirrors their recent record. Richmond has beaten West Coast, Collingwood and Carlton at the MCG this year.
Head to Head Record
Melbourne has won the last 3 against the Tigers. The Demons won their only encounter last year by 33 points.
Best Bet
Melbourne to win in an upset, $2.15.
Essendon v Collingwood
25 April, MCG
The traditional and respectful ANZAC Day clash between Collingwood and Essendon ponders many questions as both teams sit outside the eight. Whose forward line is more effective? How will the Bombers respond after their coach suggested they’ve hit the wall? Is Buckley’s position in trouble? For Collingwood to win they need to bring the manic pressure like they did against the Swans and their midfield stars are the catalyst for that. Then it comes down to their disposal into the forward line and their efficiency once inside 50. Wells debuts for his new club. At his best he is a Rolls Royce, however Elliott will attest it is extremely difficult to find form straight away. For Essendon to win they need to find the run and two-way spread like they did against Hawthorn in Round 1. Their forward line also has queries, particularly surrounding Hooker who is there to support Daniher, but plays his best down back. There are many unknowns coming into this ANZAC Day fixture. The good news is form can sometimes be irrelevant on ANZAC Day. Both teams lift for the moment and this could be a season defining game.
Stadium Record
Essendon has beaten the Hawks, but lost to Carlton at the MCG this year. Collingwood has lost their last 4 at the MCG, including losses to Richmond and the Bulldogs this year.
Head to Head Record
These two teams have split their last 4 games against each other. Collingwood won last year’s ANZAC Day match by 73 points.
Best Bet
Collingwood to win by 1-39, $2.30.
Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
