Sydney v Collingwood
7 April, SCG
These two teams are both winless and neither want to start the season 0-3. Sydney needs a lift from some stars. Parker and Hannebery were unusually quiet against the Dogs and Jack doesn’t look as assured as he once did. Tippet adds to Sydney’s injury list that includes Rampe and Heeney. Collingwood are winning enough of the ball but their delivery and forward efficiency is hurting them. Varcoe returns from suspension. Sydney needs to win, otherwise finishing in the Top 4 becomes increasingly difficult, however Collingwood won’t roll over. This should be a high-pressure contest between two desperate teams.
Stadium Record
Sydney started their season with an unexpected home loss to Port Adelaide. What made it so surprisingly was they rarely lose at home having won 14 of their last 17 at the SCG. Collingwood has only played twice at the SCG in recent times for 2 losses.
Head to Head Record
Sydney has won 4 of the last 6 against the Pies, including last year’s demoralising 80 point thumping in Round 1.
Best Bet
Sydney 1st quarter handicap -5.5 $1.92.
North Melbourne v GWS
8 April, Blundstone Arena
The Kangaroos suffered a heartbreaking 1 point loss to Geelong last week, while the Giants cruised to their biggest ever victory. North Melbourne was gallant especially considering Goldstein and Waite’s injuries. They were bold with the ball and harassed the opposition when they didn’t have it. Higgins move to the middle has been a winner. North needs to bring that same intent against a star-stuttered Giants side who showed their goalkicking power in the second half against the Suns. Cameron, Greene, Johnson and Lobb kicked multiple goals. The Giants have played in patches so far this season and are after a four quarter effort. If they do so, they should be too strong for the Kangaroos.
Stadium Record
Since 2012 North Melbourne has played 12 times at Blundstone Arena for 9 wins. GWS has only played there once and that was in their first season. They lost by 129 points.
Head to Head Record
Great Western Sydney got their first victory over the Kangaroos last year. It was a solid 37 point victory at Etihad Stadium.
Best Bet
North can handle Hobart’s tricky conditions. North Melbourne +27.5 $1.90, especially considering there’s a chance of rain and up to 30km/h winds.
Richmond v West Coast
8 April, MCG
This is an intriguing game. Richmond beat lowly ranked Carlton and then took their opportunities to defeat Collingwood, while West Coast overcame an inaccurate North Melbourne and then shrugged off a determined St Kilda. Most expect the Eagles to finish higher on the ladder than the Tigers, but the MCG’s ground dimensions test them. There are some good matchups too: Kennedy v Rance, Mitchell v Cotchin, Gaff v Ellis, Priddis v Prestia and Shuey v Martin. Overall, I’m not quite sure where these two teams sit. West Coast seems to have the better side on paper, but football is not played on paper. The one certainty is whoever wins, sets up their season with a 3-0 start.
Stadium Record
This is Richmond’s third game at the MCG, having won their first two. West Coast has played seven times at the MCG in the last three years for 3 wins. One of those wins was against Richmond in 2015.
Head to Head Record
West Coast has won the last two against the Tigers, including a 68 point win in Perth last year. Before that Richmond won 2 in a row against the Eagles.
Best Bet
West Coast started slowly and finished strongly in Rounds 1 and 2.
Half-time/Full-time Double Richmond/West Coast $6.50.
Geelong v Melbourne
8 April, Etihad Stadium
Geelong is 2-0 after an amazing comeback victory in the last minute, while Melbourne overcame a spirited Carlton to also remain undefeated. Captain, Joel Selwood, was sensational for the Cats and he carried his side to victory. The Cats query is where to play Taylor. They want a second tall for Hawkins, but he looked much better in his customary defensive position. For Melbourne this is another step. Beating Geelong at Etihad is a real test, especially with key suspensions to Lewis and Hogan. The positive is Vince returns from suspension. They have the midfield grunt and an advantage in the ruck, but do they have the belief, poise and consistency to take down a contender
Stadium Record
Geelong’s win over the Kangaroos last week means they have won 4 of their last 8 at Etihad. Melbourne was unfazed by their dreadful Etihad record in Round 1 when they beat St Kilda by 5 goals.
Head to Head Record
The Cats have won 11 of the last 12 against the Demons. Geelong won their only encounter last year by 111 points.
Best Bet
Lewis and Hogan are big outs. Geelong -16.5 $1.90.
Port Adelaide v Adelaide
8 April, Adelaide Oval
The Showdown is a must see. Both sides are undefeated and sit one and two on the ladder. Port has recaptured their attack on the ball. Wines, Boak, Ebert, Sam Gray and newcomer Powell-Pepper have led this department. Ryder’s return has also added another dimension. They are up against arguably the best team in the competition right now. After quarter time Adelaide outplayed the Hawks, without Jenkins. Talia is a rock down back and will get Dixon, while their dangerous forward line speaks for itself. Jacobs was brilliant in the ruck and will go head to head against Ryder. The midfield battle will be fierce. It’s going to be game on.
Stadium Record
Port’s 89 point win last week helped their recent substandard home record. Adelaide’s comprehensive victory over GWS in Round 1 extended their Adelaide Oval record to 17 wins from their last 19 games.
Head to Head Record
Adelaide has won the last three Showdowns. They beat Port Adelaide by 15 and 58 points last year.
Best Bet
Port are playing too well to get blown away and Adelaide have been behind at quarter time both times this season. Port first team to 25 points $2.17.
Fremantle v Western Bulldogs
8 April, Domain Stadium
Fremantle went from disappointing to uncompetitive against the Power, while the Bulldogs withstood a couple of Sydney’s runs to win a great game of football. The Dockers are devoid of confidence and making basic errors. Ross Lyon stated immediately after last week’s loss that there will be a different side this week and he stuck to his word. He dropped experienced players and replaced them with young, including debutants Balic and Logue. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs keep rolling on. Cloke was excellent and Campbell gave them something in the ruck. This game is not a question of who wins, but how much. The Western Bulldogs by …
Stadium Record
Fremantle’s Round 1 home loss to Geelong means they have now lost 10 of their last 13 games at Domain. The Bulldogs stunned the Eagles in an elimination final at Domain last year. That was their first victory there since 2010.
Head to Head Record
Fremantle has won 5 of the last 6 against the Dogs. Last year they split their two games, with the home team winning each time.
Best Bet
Bulldogs -28.5 $1.90
St Kilda v Brisbane
9 April, Etihad Stadium
St Kilda was excellent last week for three quarters before running out of legs in the west, while the Lions have already shown improvements under new coach Fagan. The Saints pressure was back and it nearly brought down the highly fancied Eagles at home. If St Kilda converted more opportunities early they might have had an unassailable lead. Stevens will be missed after puncturing his lung. Brisbane hit the front in the last quarter after being seven goals down against the Bombers. They rely on their experienced midfielders with so many young bodies around them, including debutant McCluggage. The Saints should chalk up their first win of 2017, but this new Brisbane resistance means they shouldn’t get everything their way.
Stadium Record
Even though the Saints lost their opening game at Etihad, they still have a good recent record there, winning 8 of their last 11. During the last two years Brisbane has played 8 times at Etihad for 2 wins.
Head to Head Record
The Saints have won the last two between these teams. The played each other in Round 23 last year at Etihad Stadium and the Saints won by 58 points.
Best Bet
1st Quarter Handicap St Kilda -7.5 $1.85.
Carlton v Essendon
9 April, MCG
Old foes Carlton and Essendon meet at the MCG. Essendon has the perfect record at 2-0, while Carlton was brave against Melbourne last week. No one encapsulates the Bomber’s return more so than new captain Heppell. He has led from the front, playing in the middle and kicking goals. He has taken responsibility of this team and has been ably supported by his senior players. Meanwhile, the Blues continue to have one eye on the future. They are playing for their coach and teammates and learning the right systems under their young coach. They will get some wins along the way, but probably not this week, especially with Cripp’s absence.
Stadium Record
Carlton has lost both their games at the MCG this year, against Richmond and Melbourne. Essendon had a triumphant win in Round 1 over the Hawks at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
Essendon has won 5 of the last 7 games between these teams. Interestingly, there has been 3 draws in the last 11 years between the Blues and Bombers.
Best Bet
Essendon 1-39 $2.20
Gold Coast v Hawthorn
9 April, Metricon Stadium
The Suns and Hawks meet with both teams looking for their first win. Gold Coast was smashed in the second half against the Giants. They leaked goals and lacked conviction. Who is going to stand up and make this team relevant? Hawthorn has fought in both their games and led in patches, but were ultimately not good enough to win. They have a myriad of new faces who are replacing experienced champions. Interest surrounds O’Meara’s return against his old side. His career high 36 possessions last week emphasises his talent. Hawthorn should get the job done against, hopefully, a competitive Gold Coast Suns.
Stadium Record
The Suns had a disappointing home loss in Round 1 to the Brisbane Lions and have now lost their last 3 home games. Hawthorn has played twice at Metricon since Gold Coast’s inception for 2 wins.
Head to Head Record
The Hawks have played the Suns eight times and have never lost to them. Their average winning margin is 50 points.
Best Bet
Hawthorn has led at half time in both their games, while Gold Coast has been significantly behind at half time twice. Half-time/Full-time Hawthorn/Hawthorn $1.67.
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Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
