Adelaide v Sydney
18 August, Adelaide Oval
Adelaide cleaned up Essendon last week, while Sydney destroyed Fremantle by 100 points. It is the top team against the inform team of the competition and this should be a beauty. Adelaide has been the standout team all year and base their game on strong attack and turnovers from the halfback line. Sydney turned their season around once they started getting players back and they welcome back star midfielder Josh Kennedy this week. Sydney has a powerful midfield, while Adelaide’s strength is in the forward half and they have an advantage in the ruck with Jacobs. This will be a high class game, and I will stick with the Crows on their home deck.
Stadium Record
Adelaide is 9-2 at home this year. Their two losses were against Hawthorn and Melbourne. Sydney likes the Adelaide Oval. They are 3-1 there.
Head to Head Record
Sydney has won 4 of the last 5 against the Crows, including last year’s 36-point semi-final victory.
Best Bet
Sydney win 1-39 $2.80.
Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide
19 August, Mars Stadium
Ballarat welcomes AFL football and it is an important match for both teams. The Bulldogs couldn’t go with GWS last week, while Port was too strong for Collingwood. The Bulldogs don’t have the same intensity and ferocity as last year. They also had a number of important outs, particularly down back. They have Morris and Johannisen back this week which will add stability and experience. Port has been good against lesser opposition, but unable to defeat the best teams in the competition all year. If the Dogs lose this it could be season over. They need to win and they need to be relentless at the ball and the opposition. They also need to fix their inside fifty efficiency which cost them in the second quarter last week.
Stadium Record
This is the first AFL match in Ballarat for premiership points.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs have won the last two against the Power by 3 and 64 points.
Best Bet
Western Bulldogs win $1.80.
Geelong v Collingwood
19 August, MCG
Geelong was tremendous last week against Richmond, while Collingwood went down to Port in Adelaide. Geelong was undermanned and brought great intent. They opened up a handy half-time lead and withstood a third quarter fight back. Taylor was great up forward, while Motlop and Guthrie were sensational. Reid played a lone hand up forward and gave the Pies a sniff in the second half. Collingwood has troubled Geelong in recent times. They have played on and taken risks and Geelong has been unable to stop them. If they do that again they are in this one, however, if they play that slow possession game, it could make their afternoon much more difficult. De Goey and Fasolo will be missed in Collingwood’s forward line, while Duncan is a welcome addition for the Cats.
Stadium Record
Geelong is 2-2 at the MCG this year. Both their victories were against Hawthorn. Collingwood’s last win at the MCG was against Brisbane in round 10. Since then they have recorded 4 losses and 1 draw.
Head to Head Record
With Buckley in charge, Collingwood has won 6 of 8 against Geelong, including a 29-point victory this year.
Best Bet
Geelong win 1-39 $2.10.
GWS v West Coast
19 August, Spotless Stadium
The Giants overpowered the Dogs in Melbourne, while West Coast survived a Carlton scare. GWS look to be building at the right time. They moved the ball in waves against the Dogs and they are at their best when they do that. Who knows what could have happened to West Coast if Josh Kennedy wasn’t playing. Since returning from injury he has been outstanding and confirmed his place as one of the best full-forwards in the game. West Coast has fallen every time they play good teams away from home and I can’t see them beating the Giants who are looking to hit September running, particularly with Cameron, Smith and Mumford back. I expect the Giants to win by controlling the middle through the likes of Shield, Kelly, Coniglio and Ward.
Stadium Record
The Giants’ home record at Spotless this season is 5 wins, 1 loss and 1 draw. West Coast has only played at Spotless twice. They won both games by 1 and 100 points.
Head to Head Record
GWS recorded their first ever victory against the Eagles earlier this year in round 10.
Best Bet
GWS first quarter handicap -7.5 $1.91.
Gold Coast v Essendon
19 August, Metricon Stadium
The Suns were good early, but fell away against the Lions, while Essendon was no match for the Crows. Gold Coast is limping towards the finish line. They have injuries and are looking for a new coach. Hanley is back this week but Ablett misses again. Essendon welcomes back Merrett and his class was missed last week. Daniher is the key up forward but he won’t have it all his own way because May is a tough defender. Essendon will look to take advantage of Gold Coast’s thin midfield and play through the middle of the ground. Essendon cannot afford to drop this if they want to play finals.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast has lost 3 of their last 4 at home. Their win was against North Melbourne. Essendon has lost their last two at Metricon by 61 and 2 points.
Head to Head Record
These two teams split their games last year. The home team won on each occasion.
Best Bet
Essendon at the line -23.5 $1.90.
Carlton v Hawthorn
19 August, Etihad Stadium
Carlton was gallant after giving up a sizeable lead against the Eagles, while Hawthorn jumped the Roos and eventually won quite comfortably. There has been a bit of talk about Carlton’s progress this year. While the win column isn’t great reading, the future is bright. They are getting game time into their youth and they are playing committed football. Hawthorn has also got time and experience into a lot of players and O’Meara’s return adds to their list. Sicily has found his spot down back and he plays his best football when he brings aggression. Hawthorn should beat the Blues, but Carlton has fought all year.
Stadium Record
Carlton is 1-4 at Etihad this year. Their victory was against the Giants. Hawthorn has not played at Etihad this year. They won their three games there last year.
Head to Head Record
Hawthorn has feasted on the Blues recently. They have won the last 14. Carlton’s last victory over Hawthorn was in 2005.
Best Bet
Hawthorn win 1-39 $2.20.
Melbourne v Brisbane
20 August, MCG
Melbourne defeated St Kilda in what was a mini elimination final, while Brisbane overran the Suns at the Gabba. It was an encouraging performance by the Dees and they would have been ecstatic with Brayshaw’s return. His was a top five draft pick and has had a series of concussion issues. He not only got through his return game, but played exceptionally well. Dayne Beams was the standout player against Gold Coast. He is a class midfield who kicks goals. He will be up against Melbourne’s midfield which bats pretty deep even without Viney. I expect Brisbane to push Melbourne at stages, but a four quarter effort from tiring young legs will be a challenge.
Stadium Record
Melbourne has won their last three at the MCG. They beat St Kilda, Port Adelaide and Carlton. Brisbane has lost their last four at the MCG, including a 45-point loss to Collingwood this year.
Head to Head Record
Melbourne has won the last two against Brisbane by 63 and 24 points.
Best Bet
Melbourne win 1-39 $2.50.
St Kilda v North Melbourne
20 August, Etihad Stadium
St Kilda was disappointing against Melbourne, particularly in the first half, while North got on a roll during the third quarter, but it wasn’t enough to beat the Hawks. St Kilda’s disposal was a real concern. They butchered the ball and did no favours for their forwards. They will need to clean that up this week. North was without Ziebell who was a late withdrawal. He has had a good season in his first year as captain and will be better again next year. North Melbourne’s Brown looms as the key forward target in this game. He will probably be matched up by the other Brown, who is an old-fashioned defender. St Kilda has to win this to keep their finals hopes alive, while North will be looking to spoil the party.
Stadium Record
St Kilda has won 4 of their last 5 at Etihad. Their only loss was against Essendon. North has lost their last six at Etihad.
Head to Head Record
St Kilda beat North by 17 points earlier this year. That win ended a six game losing streak to the Roos.
Best Bet
St Kilda win 1-39 $2.15.
Fremantle v Richmond
20 August, Domain Stadium
It was a horrible day for the Dockers last week against the Swans, while Richmond lost to an undermanned Geelong. It was Fremantle’s third massive defeat this year on the road. They lost to Port by 89 points, Adelaide by 100 and Sydney by 104. Thankfully they are home this week and Bennell’s first game for the club after being recruited at the end of 2015 will give them a boost. Unfortunately, his return is offset by Neale’s absence. Richmond had a chance to secure a top four spot and defeat a contender who was vulnerable. They were outworked and outplayed. Rance was beaten down back and the forward line missed another tall target. They should be too good for the Dockers even without Caddy who suffered a hamstring injury.
Stadium Record
Fremantle won their last home game, which ended a four game losing streak at Domain. Richmond has won 4 of their last 5 at Domain.
Head to Head Record
Fremantle defeated Richmond earlier this year thanks to Mundy’s goal after the siren. The away team has won the last five between these two.
Best Bet
Richmond at the line -19.5 $1.90.
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Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
