Geelong v Sydney
4 August, Simonds Stadium
Geelong had a comfortable win over Carlton, while Sydney lost another close one against Hawthorn. Dangerfield has dominated discussion all week. His one week suspension not only impacts this game but it makes him ineligible for the Brownlow. A few weeks ago Geelong’s next tier players like Menegola, stood up when Joel Selwood went down. They will need to do it again against an in-form Sydney who is looking to bounce back. Sydney has also lost star midfielder, Kennedy, but regain Reid, Lloyd and Rohan. Grundy v Hawkins and Franklin v Lonergan will be fascinating. Geelong at the Cattery is never easy, but Sydney won’t fear it. This one could go either way and is an early taste of September.
Stadium Record
Geelong’s home record is outstanding. They have won 15 of their last 16 at Simonds, however that one loss was to Sydney last year. Sydney has won 2 of their last 5 at Simonds, which is as good as any recent away record there.
Head to Head Record
Sydney has won 4 of the last 5 against Geelong, including a 37-point victory in last year’s preliminary final.
Best Bet
Sydney win first quarter $1.85.
GWS v Melbourne
5 August, Manuka Oval
GWS scrapped a win against Fremantle, while Melbourne lost to North Melbourne for the seventeenth straight time. The Giants are not playing the free-flowing football we saw last year. They are only just going and finals are around the corner. Viney was held to 17 touches and Melbourne lost to the Kangaroos. The skipper was not alone as other players were also down. Top four and top eight positions are on the line in this one. Melbourne has played well against good sides and GWS is nowhere near its best. The midfield will be tight and brutal, especially with Jones and Vince back for the Dees, while there are GWS tall forwards at one end and Melbourne’s nippy forwards at the other. Unfortunately, both full-forwards are out; Cameron and Hogan. Melbourne’s recent form line is better and they have won on the road this year. I think they can do it again and upset the Giants.
Stadium Record
GWS has won 7 of their last 8 in the national’s capital, including their last five there. Since GWS’ inception, Melbourne is 1-1 at Manuka.
Head to Head Record
Melbourne has won the last two between these two teams.
Best Bet
Melbourne win $2.45.
Essendon v Carlton
5 August, MCG
Essendon lost a high-scoring affair against the Dogs, while Carlton was comprehensively beaten by Geelong. The Bombers couldn’t contain the usually low-scoring Dogs. The Bulldogs changed a few things, the main one was throwing Johannisen forward, and Essendon couldn’t stop him. Carlton’s pressure was not at the standard they have shown this year and it suggests the young group are feeling the effects of a long season. They might be able to get up against the old enemy. Merrett and Gibbs were both well held last week and might receive some attention this week. Jones versus Daniher is an important matchup, while Carlton young talls, Curnow and McKay, have big asks against Hartley and Hurley. Essendon must win to keep their final’s hopes alive.
Stadium Record
Essendon is 4-2 at the MCG this year and beat Collingwood in their last outing at the home of football. Carlton has lost their last four at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
Carlton has won 2 of the last 3 against Essendon, including a 15-point victory earlier this year.
Best Bet
Carlton at the line +26.5 $1.90.
Brisbane v Western Bulldogs
5 August, Gabba
Brisbane was no match for the West Coast Eagles, while the Western Bulldogs played their best game of the year. They threw Johannisen forward and his four-goal performance was outstanding. What does Beveridge do with him this week? The Lions welcome back Zorko, McStay and Hipwood, which are big ins. Zorko adds speed and carry, McStay is a good young defender, while Hipwood is good in the air and surprisingly good on the ground for a big man. These teams played each other earlier this year and Brisbane led by five goals at half-time. The Bulldogs restored normal order after that, but it just shows the Dogs need to be on their game as this young Lions outfit can play without fear. I’m still expecting a Bulldogs victory, but Brisbane will match them for pace and enthusiasm.
Stadium Record
Brisbane is 2-6 at home this year. Their two wins were against Carlton and Fremantle. The Bulldogs have lost their last four at the Gabba.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs have won the last two against Brisbane by 32 and 53 points.
Best Bet
Brisbane at the line +27.5 $1.90.
Fremantle v Gold Coast
5 August, Domain Stadium
Fremantle pushed the highly-fancied Giants right to the end last week, while Gold Coast bravely battled against Richmond and an unthinkable injury list. A young Fremantle side led at three-quarter time, but couldn’t sustain it. Players like Cox, Darcy, Weller, Tucker and Ryan continued showing promising signs. Gold Coast lost May and Ablett before the bounce and then three more went down. Thankfully, Ablett and May are back this week and it is a winnable game because Fremantle has lost 8 of their last 9. Fyfe could be the figure that stands in their way. He is getting back to his best and doing it forward and in the middle. While Fremantle looks to their captain, Lynch is just as important for the Suns. He will get the reliable Hamling which is no easy task. This should be a tight one in the west.
Stadium Record
Fremantle has lost their last four at Domain to Hawthorn, West Coast, St Kilda and Collingwood. Gold Coast beat Fremantle at Domain last year. That is their only win there in nine matches.
Head to Head Record
Gold Coast won both contests last year by 24 and 26 points.
Best Bet
Gold Coast at the line +16.5 $1.90.
North Melbourne v Collingwood
5 August, Etihad Stadium
The Kangaroos did it again; they beat Melbourne, while Collingwood played an epic draw against the Crows. North’s attack on the ball was sensational and Brown is in great form. Who would have thought a couple of seasons ago he would become a Coleman Medal threat? Collingwood’s first half against Adelaide was unbelievable. Treloar, Sidebottom, Adams and in particular Wells, dominated the middle of the ground. They fell away in the second half, but the positives outweigh the negatives. If North cannot quell Collingwood’s midfield they will be hard to beat. Reid is giving them a target up forward, alongside Moore, and Dunn is playing a role down back. North will keep looking at their next tier of players to continue developing. Collingwood looks to have a bit too much firepower, but North have been plucky all year.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne has lost their last five at Etihad. Their last victory there was against Carlton in round 10. Collingwood has won 2 of their last 3 at Etihad.
Head to Head Record
These two teams have split their last six games against each other. Collingwood was victorious last year by 40 points.
Best Bet
Collingwood win 1-39 $2.15.
St Kilda v West Coast
6 August, Etihad Stadium
St Kilda’s hearts were broken in the last minute of the game against Port Adelaide, while West Coast easily accounted for Brisbane. It seemed like St Kilda’s inaccuracy in front of goal was going to cost them, but in the last quarter they kicked straight and led by 10 points with a minute to go. It wasn’t to be as Young and Gray kicked late goals to give Port the win. West Coast ran away with it after quarter-time and Kennedy kicked 6 goals for the second straight week. Brown will probably get him but they have Carlisle as a backup. The midfield battle is always pivotal and Sheed and Duggan have developed throughout the year for the Eagles. If they put in another strong performance it will make the going tough for St Kilda. The thing in the Saints favour is West Coast’s flaky road record. The Eagles need to make a statement in Victoria because that is where premierships are won.
Stadium Record
St Kilda has been inconsistent at Etihad this year. Last up, they lost to Essendon by 10 goals and before that they beat Richmond by 11 goals. West Coast is just as inconsistent at Etihad this year and is 2-2 there in 2017.
Head to Head Record
West Coast has won the last eight against St Kilda, including a hard-fought 19-point win earlier this year.
Best Bet
West Coast win $2.10.
Richmond v Hawthorn
6 August, MCG
Richmond defeated Gold Coast last week, while Hawthorn beat the Swans in a pulsating game. Richmond found a way to kick goals without Riewoldt, which will give them confidence. Meanwhile, Hawthorn continues developing. Their young players are standing up in big games and their inexperienced backline was tremendous against Franklin. This is a fascinating game. Richmond needs the win to stay in the top four, while Hawthorn’s form is as good as anyone’s. In the last five matches they have beaten Sydney, Fremantle in Perth, Adelaide in Adelaide, drew with GWS and lost to Geelong by 3 points. Their kicking game is back and they have players like Shiels and Langford who can shutdown Martin and Cotchin, if need be. I like what I’m seeing from the brown and gold and I think they can beat the Tigers in front of a big MCG crowd, even without Hodge who is suspended.
Stadium Record
Richmond has a good MCG record this year; they are 7-2 there. Hawthorn has won 2 of their last 3 at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
Richmond was one of a few teams that matched Hawthorn during their peak. These two have split their last six games.
Best Bet
Hawthorn win $2.10.
Adelaide v Port Adelaide
6 August, Adelaide Oval
South Australians were spoilt last week as Port kicked two goals in the last minute to win and Adelaide drew, after the siren, after being 50 points down. The Port Adelaide finish was dramatic while the Adelaide draw had everything you love about football. Showdown 43 might be the best one yet. It is on the line and it is first versus fifth. Adelaide’s midfield depth is a concern and Collingwood exploited it. Port will be looking to do the same. Betts missed last week and returns to Adelaide’s forward line. At the other end, Keith has stood up in his first few games and it doesn’t get any easier. The ruck contest is just as good, Ryder v Jacobs. The difference could be the halfback line. They got Adelaide going last week and the likes of Laird, Smith, Lever and Brown set up a lot of Adelaide’s counter attack. I’m not sure if Port has the personnel to stop them.
Stadium Record
Adelaide has won 4 of their last 5 at the Adelaide Oval and is 8-2 there this year. Port has also won 4 of their last 5 at home. Their only loss was to Richmond.
Head to Head Record
Adelaide has won the last four against Port, including a 17-point victory earlier this year.
Best Bet
Adelaide win 1-39 $2.00.
Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
