Richmond v Collingwood
30 March, MCG
Both teams were fairly pleased with their first up performance. Richmond kicked 20 goals and disposed of Carlton, while Collingwood pushed the Bulldogs all night. Dustin Martin was exceptional against Carlton. Collingwood generally don’t shut down players, even though Crisp can do it, and they will probably go head to head against him and try and hurt Martin the other way. The rest of the midfield battle pits some quality players against each other. Collingwood’s forward line and entry into the forward 50 will be important. Fasolo was dangerous while Moore and White were quiet against the Dogs. Elliott will miss again. Richmond’s small forwards played well against the Blues, but Collingwood will be a tougher assignment. This should be an entertaining and close contest.
Stadium Record
Both these teams are generally a 50-50 proposition at the MCG. Richmond was victorious at the home of football seven days ago in front of 70,000 spectators, while Collingwood lost to the reigning premiers by 14 points.
Head to Head Record
Richmond has won 3 of the last 4 against Collingwood. Collingwood’s win was a 1 point thriller thanks to Brodie Grundy’s last gasp goal.
Best Bet
I’m leaning towards Collingwood win $1.72.
Western Bulldogs v Sydney
31 March, Etihad Stadium
The Grand Final rematch takes centre stage on Friday night. The Dogs enter after a hard-fought win against the Pies, while Sydney had a surprise loss at home. The Bulldogs looked more dangerous and flexible on the outside with the return of Murphy, Suckling and Crameri. The change of personnel changed their winning style as they thrived on turnovers, yet were beaten in contested football. Sydney enjoys a contest with Kennedy, Jack, Parker and Hannerbery all capable of winning their own ball. Franklin is a different opposition with no Hamling in the Bulldog line up. He will be desperate to atone for last year after injuring himself early in the Grand Final. This match should be a ripper, even with both teams losing important defenders Morris and Rampe.
Stadium Record
The Dogs enjoy playing on their fast home track. They have won 19 of their last 23 games there. Sydney like Etihad too. They have won their last 10 there by an average of 50 points.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs have won the last 3 against Sydney by 22 points, 4 points and 4 points. Before that Sydney had a hold on the Bulldogs winning 6 in a row.
Best Bet
Sydney +18.5 $1.90
Hawthorn v Adelaide
1 April, MCG
The Hawks started their season with a disappointing loss to Essendon, while an undermanned Adelaide was brilliant against the premiership favourites. Hawthorn is a new side and looking for their middle tier players to take a step up like Breust, Puopolo, Schoenmakers, Hartung and Shiels. Hodge’s return will help, but there is only so much the ageing warrior can do. Adelaide controlled the much hyped Giants all over the park and their dangerous forward line feasted with 22 goals. Hawthorn will struggle containing Adelaide’s forwards especially with the return of their skipper, Walker. The Hawks need Roughead, Gunston and Rioli to play bigger roles than last week to match the impressive Crows.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn’s opening loss at the MCG means they have lost their last 3 there. Adelaide has won 5 of their last 7 at the MCG, however their 2 losses were both against Hawthorn by 3 points and 74 points.
Head to Head Record
The Hawks have won the last 7 against the Crows. Four of those wins were by two goals or less. Adelaide’s last win over Hawthorn was in 2011.
Best Bet
Adelaide win $1.75
GWS Giants v Gold Coast
1 April, Spotless Stadium
The Giants had an early reality check after being thumped by Adelaide, while Gold Coast stormed home but ultimately lost to Brisbane by 2 points. The Giants were beaten across the field and conceded 22 goals. That won’t happen against Gold Coast as they have too many good players that were below their best. The Suns gave up the first seven goals in their clash and were very good in the third quarter, but football is a four quarter game. Expect GWS to bounce back and win comfortably.
Stadium Record
GWS won 6 of their 9 games at Spotless Stadium last year, including a 91 point victory over the Suns. That 91 point smashing is the only game Gold Coast has played at Spotless.
Head to Head Record
The Giants have won the last 4 against the Suns. The last time these teams played was Round 20 last year and it was a hard-fought 8 point Giants victory.
Best Bet
GWS 40+ $2.00
Brisbane v Essendon
1 April, Gabba
After only 3 wins each last year, both teams won their opening match. Brisbane upset crosstown rivals, Gold Coast, while Essendon beat old foes Hawthorn. Brisbane’s defensive pressure and leaders were great, and they need to be again. Rockliff, Dayne Beams and Zorko need to find the football. Brisbane has a slight edge in the ruck. Essendon looked polished and moved the ball well against the Hawks. Their returning players were influential and they look to have winners all over the ground against the Lions, particularly in the key posts. Expect a Bomber victory and a 2-0 start to their season.
Stadium Record
The Gabba has not been a happy place for local fans as the Lions have only won 5 of their last 24 games at home. The Bombers have only played twice at the Gabba since 2009. They won both games by 8 and 36 points.
Head to Head Record
Essendon has won 4 of the last 6 against Brisbane, however the Lions won by 37 points in their only encounter last year.
Best Bet
Essendon -16.5 $1.90
West Coast v St Kilda
1 April, Domain Stadium
West Coast beat the Roos in Melbourne last week, while the Saints were comprehensively beaten by Melbourne. The Eagles midfield controlled the game and Mitchell made a flying start for his new club. Kennedy was damaging with seven goals and he will trouble the Saints undersized defence. Carlisle or Brown will get the job, but they will need help from the likes of Geary and Roberton. West Coast will be applying the same formula against the Saints in Perth, even though their ruck stocks took another blow with Petrie’s injury. For St Kilda to win they need to bring extreme pressure, which they base their game on, and restrict the Eagles midfield. St Kilda has forward options, even without the injured Riewoldt, but they need to get the ball there. I expect a better performance from St Kilda, but beating West Coast at home is an arduous task.
Stadium Record
The Eagles own Domain Stadium. They are 25-4 from their last 29 games at home. St Kilda has lost their last five games at Domain by an average of 9 goals.
Head to Head Record
West Coast has won the last seven against the Saints. The last two contests have been at Domain Stadium and the Eagles won by 103 and 95 points.
Best Bet
West Coast 40+ $2.10
Geelong v North Melbourne
2 April, Etihad Stadium
The Cats had a good win in the west against the Dockers, while North Melbourne eventually lost by seven goals to the Eagles. The most pleasing thing about Geelong’s win was their spread and balance. Dangerfield spent more time forward and Geelong’s side was smaller, quicker and more flexible than previous years. North is going to be up and down in 2017 with so many new faces. In previous seasons they troubled the Cats by playing a possession game and restrained form kicking the ball long, particularly inside 50. I won’t be surprised if they employ the same tactics. Unfortunately with their changed personnel it might not have the same effect. Waite’s injury further impacts North’s situation. The Cats have the experience, depth, talent and a healthier list, even with Cockatoo’s thumb injury.
Stadium Record
Etihad was a very happy hunting ground for Geelong with an 86% winning record there for eight years, but their last 7 games has seen 3 wins, 3 losses and a draw. North’s lost to the Eagles means they have lost 6 of their past 8 at Etihad.
Head to Head Record
Geelong’s 31 point victory last year broke a three game losing streak against the Kangaroos. Since Geelong’s 2011 premiership North Melbourne has won 5 of their 9 contests.
Best Bet
Cats -29.5 $1.90
Melbourne v Carlton
2 April, MCG
Melbourne had a terrific 5 goal victory over their nemesis St Kilda, while Carlton lost to Richmond by seven goals. Melbourne was tremendous against the Saints after being 4 goals down during the second quarter. They shared the workload with fifteen players gathering 19 possessions or more. Carlton showed signs. Weitering was good up forward, Marchbank was very impressive down back, Murphy was back to his best after last year’s injury and Cripps didn’t show any signs of his hampered pre-season. Unfortunately the moment is now and it looks like more short term pain for Carlton this week. Melbourne to win as they have a strong midfield group, a dominant ruckman, bigger bodies and more options across the ground.
Stadium Record
The last time Melbourne played at the MCG they lost to the Blues by 20 points. Before that they split their previous 24 games there. Carlton lost their opening game at the MCG, which now means they have lost 6 of their last 7 there.
Head to Head Record
Carlton has won 9 of the last 10 games against the Demons. The last two games have been remarkably similar with Carlton winning 78-58 and 78-55.
Best Bet
Melbourne -29.5 $1.90
Port Adelaide v Fremantle
2 April, Adelaide Oval
The Power started their season with a speculator win over the Swans in Sydney, while Fremantle lost at home. Port will be looking to spread the load in the midfield again, and they will be hoping that Dixon and Ryder play important roles again. Robbie Gray spent a lot of time forward and was below his best. Expect him to improve against the Dockers. Fremantle was disappointing first up. Their kicking was below par and turnovers cost them. They need to improve their field kicking and pull the trigger by foot. Sandilands will give them first use in the middle, but they need to tidy up a lot of areas to be a chance. Just like Gray, Walters was quite first up and he is too good to have no influence two weeks running.
Stadium Record
The Portress was in question late last year as Port Adelaide only won 1 of their last 7 games there in 2016. Fremantle does not have a great Adelaide Oval record. They have played there four times for 1 win.
Head to Head Record
These two teams have split their last six games against each other. Fremantle won last year’s encounter by 17 points in Perth.
Best Bet
It’s time for Port to reclaim the Adelaide Oval. Port -23.5 $1.90.
Words: Rhys Thurston
