Hawthorn v Sydney
28 July, MCG
Hawthorn had a solid win against Fremantle, while Sydney were too good for St Kilda. These two teams have recaptured the form we are used to, and this match looks a beauty. Hawthorn’s blend of youth and experience is matched by Sydney’s. Sydney has more midfield power, but Hawthorn’s kicking game is hard to stop. Gunston has moved to halfback and utilising his foot skills. Mitchell’s numbers are truly amazing. Sydney know his capabilities and they might lock him down. Someone has to. Franklin and Roughead are at either ends. Franklin is on track for another Coleman Medal, while Roughead is playing his best football for the year. If Sinclair can play like he did last week for the Swans, it adds a new dimension to their side. This should be a fierce contest between two sides that respect each other. It’s hard to go past the Swans, as they are beating everyone at the moment.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn has lost 3 of their last 4 at the MCG. Their only win during that time was against Collingwood. Sydney is 2-1 at the MCG this year. They beat Melbourne and Richmond, but lost to Carlton.
Head to Head Record
Since the 2014 Grand Final, the away team has been victorious between these two every time. The ledger is 3-2, Hawthorn’s way.
Best Bet
Sydney win 1-39 $2.10
North Melbourne v Melbourne
29 July, Blundstone Arena
North Melbourne took it up to Essendon last week but weren’t able to stop goals, while Melbourne was superb against Port Adelaide. I’ve kept saying all year that North are in contests and playing well without winning at times, but the facts are they have lost seven in a row and are second last on the ladder. Melbourne was ruthless and swarmed Port Adelaide. Viney’s inclusion was massive and his grunt and intensity lifted his teammates. He will be pivotal this week. If Melbourne brings the same heat as last week they will finally beat North Melbourne. On the other hand, North will need to match that intensity and make the most of their opportunities to have a chance. There is one player who deserves a mention and that is Frost. His work down back allows McDonald to play forward and his dash from defence has also gone to another level. He might get Brown, who kicked 6 last week.
Stadium Record
North has played in Hobart twice this year. They thumped Adelaide, but lost to GWS by 7 goals. Melbourne played North last year at Blundstone. They lost by 5 points.
Head to Head Record
North has won the last 16, that’s right, 16, against Melbourne, including a 14-point victory earlier this year.
Best Bet
Melbourne win 1-39 $2.10
GWS v Fremantle
29 July, Spotless Stadium
Has injuries finally caught up with GWS or are there more problems? Since round 11, they have only beaten Brisbane. Fremantle was comprehensively beaten by Hawthorn and lost star play-maker, Walters, in the process. The Giants form line was skewed due to a number of close wins against the Bulldogs, Collingwood, Richmond, West Coast and Essendon from rounds 6-11. They aren’t getting their game of running in waves out of defence and now Greene has been suspended again. However, Cameron and Coniglio are important inclusions. Fremantle is a confidence team. If they go for their kicks in the corridor and hit targets, they are hard to combat. However, if they turn the ball over, they can go into their shells and lose potency. The Giants must win, but Fremantle have shown they can be dangerous when they have nothing to lose.
Stadium Record
GWS has won 4 of their 6 home games this year. The other results were a loss and a draw. Fremantle has only played at Spotless once. It was last year and they lost by 92 points.
Head to Head Record
The Giants won both encounters against the Dockers last year by a combined total of 110 points.
Best Bet
GWS half-time margin -18.5 $1.85
Port Adelaide v St Kilda
29 July, Adelaide Oval
Port was disappointing last week against Melbourne, while St Kilda was outclassed by the Swans in Sydney. Port Adelaide’s first quarter would have been heavily reviewed this week. Their intensity was below par and they never really recovered. St Kilda was no match for the Swans, and would have lost by more had Sydney kicked straight. Port Adelaide has a very good record against clubs outside the top eight this year, which is not great news for St Kilda, who has dropped to eleventh. Games are generally won in the middle and Port has the superior midfield with the likes of Wines, Gray, Boak and Powell-Pepper. Throw in a vocal home crowd and St Kilda’s questionable interstate record, and it should be a victory for the Power.
Stadium Record
Port is 5-3 at home this year. Their three losses were all under 3 goals. St Kilda has never tasted success at the Adelaide Oval. Their average losing margin there is over 10 goals.
Head to Head Record
Port Adelaide has won the last five against St Kilda. Four of those matches were in Adelaide.
Best Bet
Port at the line -36.5 $1.90
Gold Coast v Richmond
29 July, Metricon Stadium
The undermanned Suns lost to the Bulldogs, while Richmond gave the Giants a head start and went straight past them. ‘Undermanned’ and ‘Suns’ seem to go hand in hand. Not sure why they have so many injuries. Their biggest injury is Ablett. They are a different side when he plays and he is back. Richmond was great in the wet. They restricted GWS to six goals for the match and three of them were in the first quarter. It is now round 19 and Richmond has only played two poor games this year. There aren’t many teams who can match that. Vlastuin’s return has filled the hole left by the suspended Houli, who is back this week. Richmond looks to have Gold Coast covered, even though Gold Coast has some big ins and Richmond some big outs. Co-captain, May, returns while Presita and Riewoldt are out.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast is 4-4 at home this year. Their last home effort was a 15-point loss to Collingwood. Since the Suns inception, Richmond has only played at Metricon once. They lost by 18 points.
Head to Head Record
Richmond has won 3 of the last 4 against the Suns, including a 17-point victory last year.
Best Bet
Richmond win 1-39 $2.15
Carlton v Geelong
29 July, Etihad Stadium
Carlton went down to Brisbane by 30 points, while Geelong was beaten by Adelaide. Carlton was smashed in the first half. They fought and reduced the margin to 11 points in the last quarter, but ultimately lost by five goals. Geelong was beaten all over the park against the Crows. Adelaide employed a different tactic of precise use instead of playing on and trying to get the ball over the top, and it worked. Carlton has targeted Joel Selwood the last few times and expect plenty of niggle again. Gibbs was heavily tagged last week and Rockliff was sensational against him. This will be a contested game and the midfield battle will be pivotal. Geelong has lost Menzel, Blicavs and Menzel, while Carlton regain Marchbank. Geelong should win, but Carlton has shown plenty of spirit all year.
Stadium Record
Carlton’s last outing at Etihad was a thrilling 1-point victory over GWS. That win ended a four match losing streak there. Geelong has won their last four at Etihad and is 3-0 there this year.
Head to Head Record
Carlton upset Geelong by 19 points last year. That win ended a seven game losing streak against the Cats.
Best Bet
Carlton at the line +28.5 $1.90
Western Bulldogs v Essendon
30 July, Etihad Stadium
Both teams won as expected last week and this shapes as a mouth-watering clash. It is the proverbial eight-point game. Both teams are 9-8 and it is unlikely both will play finals. Their playing styles are very different. Essendon moves the ball with speed and the Bulldogs move the ball from congestion. Picken had a day out last week, kicking six goals, but I’m not expecting that to happen again. Hooker also kicked a bag and with Morris’ injury, he looms again. Essendon’s forward line is dangerous. Daniher, Fantasia and McDonald-Tipungwuti can all kick multiple goals. The Dogs will be after an even contribution from the likes of McLean, Biggs, Daniel and Williams, to starve Essendon’s forwards. The final consideration is the form line. The Bombers are in good form, while the Dogs ran away with victory against an undermanned Gold Coast. I like Essendon in this one.
Stadium Record
The Dogs have enjoyed Etihad in recent times, but have lost 2 of their last 3 there. Essendon is now 4-2 at Etihad this year, after beating North Melbourne.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs have won the last two against Essendon by 40 and 87 points, however those results were impacted by the drugs saga. Before that, Essendon won six in a row.
Best Bet
Essendon win $1.78
Collingwood v Adelaide
30 July, MCG
Collingwood had a fantastic win over West Coast, while Adelaide cemented first position by beating Geelong. Collingwood was down two players and four goals behind, but kicked the last five goals of the game to win at Etihad. Adelaide won by 21 points, but the margin flattered the Cats. Sloane was back to his best and the Crouch brothers were good again. Brad Crouch will miss this week and it’s an important out, as Collingwood’s midfield is good. If Adelaide match the Pies in the middle their dangerous forwards will be hard to stop, even without Betts. Collingwood’s forward line has been a concern all year, but de Goey’s inclusion has helped. Adelaide has some classy small defenders and should be able to handle Collingwood’s mobile forward line. I expect Adelaide to get the job done in their last home and away game at the MCG this year.
Stadium Record
Collingwood has lost their last four at the MCG. Three of those losses were by four or more goals. Adelaide has won their last four at the MCG and has beaten Carlton and Hawthorn there this year.
Head to Head Record
Adelaide has won the last four against Collingwood, including a 28-point victory last year.
Best Bet
Adelaide at the line -18.5 $1.90
West Coast v Brisbane
30 July, Domain Stadium
West Coast had another disappointing loss on the road last week, while Brisbane secured their fourth win for the season, beating Carlton. The Eagles gave up a four-goal lead, against a bottom four side, who only had two fit players on the bench. They were smashed in the contested ball in the last quarter. Brisbane blew Carlton away and then withstood a fight back. Zorko was outstanding, particularly in the first half, but has been suspended for this match. Brisbane is building nicely for the future. Their spine is good and their midfield is developing. They won’t win this week because West Coast doesn’t lose to bottom sides at home. In fact, the Eagles will probably have a convincingly victory and play attractive football.
Stadium Record
West Coast is 6-3 at home this year. Brisbane has lost their last seven at Domain, which includes a 64-point loss to West Coast there last year.
Head to Head Record
West Coast has won the last six between these two, by an average of 50 points.
Best Bet
West Coast win 40+ $1.65
Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
