Adelaide v Geelong
21 July, Adelaide Oval
Round 18 begins with a Friday night blockbuster. The machinations in this game is endless. It is one versus two. Both teams are coming off good wins and Sloane and Dangerfield have been named to play. Sloane suffered concussion and played no further part in the game against Melbourne, while Dangerfield was on one leg and sent to full-forward, where he kicked 5.6 for the afternoon. Dangerfield has not lost against his old side and Geelong have a very good recent record over the Crows. The winner will have a stranglehold on a top 2 finish and a home final, while the loser could find themselves travelling interstate in September. Adelaide is extremely hard to beat at home, but Geelong has no fears crossing the border. This will be a fierce contest that could go down to the wire.
Stadium Record
Adelaide is 7-2 at the Adelaide Oval this year. Geelong has won their last three at the Adelaide Oval and their overall record there is 3-1.
Head to Head Record
Geelong has won the last 6 against Adelaide, including a 22-point victory earlier this year.
Best Bet
Geelong at the line +15.5 $1.90.
Essendon v North Melbourne
22 July, Etihad Stadium
Essendon was tremendous against St Kilda last week, while North Melbourne was thumped in Adelaide, against the Power. Essendon destroyed the Saints. Their ball movement was swift and their pressure was great. North was never in the hunt as they trailed by 6 goals at quarter time. The focus will be on how to stop Daniher, but a couple of other Bombers are playing good football too. Bellchambers has found his groove in the ruck, while Zaharakis is back running and using the ball. The other problem for the young Roos is they might have hit the wall. It is a long season for young bodies and North’s leaders like Swallow, Cunnington and Higgins will need to shoulder the load more than ever, especially with Ziebell out and Goldstein dropped.
Stadium Record
Essendon has won 3 of their last 4 at Etihad. It should have been 4 from 4 after giving up a big lead to cellar-dwellers, Brisbane. North has lost their last four at Etihad.
Head to Head Record
North Melbourne has won 6 of the last 7 between these teams.
Best Bet
Essendon start games well, first quarter handicap -6.5 $1.87.
Melbourne v Port Adelaide
22 July, MCG
Melbourne was outclassed against Adelaide, while Port trounced the Kangaroos. Melbourne has had swags of important injuries and suspensions this year, and it’s now taking a toll. The lack of continuity has seen then lose 2 of their last 3. Viney, Watts, Salem and Tyson are all back this week, but it generally takes a few weeks to get back to full fitness and form. That means, Port Adelaide will be looking to pounce. This is a wonderful opportunity to get their first win against a top 8 side. With players like Gray, Dixon, Wingard, Boak, Wines and Polec, they should. Port Adelaide has shown all year that when they win, the win big, so Melbourne has to stay with the Power early to ensure that doesn’t happen.
Stadium Record
Melbourne is 3-5 at the MCG this year. Their last outing was an 8-point against a wounded Carlton. Port has won their last three at the MCG. Two of those wins were against Collingwood.
Head to Head Record
Melbourne beat Port Adelaide by 40 points, in Adelaide, last year. That was their first win over the Power since 2011.
Best Bet
Port at the line -7.5 $1.90.
Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast
22 July, Cazaly’s Stadium
Gold Coast went down in the wet against Collingwood, while the Dogs beat Carlton in a low scoring affair. Ablett did it all last week, but he is out again. That means extra responsibility for Swallow, Hall, Martin, Sexton and Lemmens. The Dogs leaders stood up after Carlton kicked the first three goals of the game. It wasn’t a pretty win, but it was a win. Bontempelli and Macrae were their best. Debutant, Young, was fantastic down back. Both these teams are familiar with Cairns, having played there the last few years. The biggest difference is the outs. The Dogs have lost Stringer, but Gold Coast will be without Ablett, Lyons and May. This is a critical match for the Dogs. If they lose their premiership defence is in serious trouble. They just have to win.
Stadium Record
The Dogs have played at Cazaly’ Stadium three times, for three wins. Gold Coast has lost their last four up north. Three of them were against the Dogs.
Head to Head Record
Those three Bulldog victories in Cairns were the last three games between these teams. Before that, Gold Coast had consecutive wins against the Dogs.
Best Bet
Bulldogs win 1-39 $2.20.
Fremantle v Hawthorn
22 July, Domain Stadium
Fremantle kicked themselves out of the game against West Coast, while Hawthorn lost a classic against modern rivals, Geelong. Fremantle won the contest and territory, but their inefficiency, decision-making and inaccuracy in front of goal severely cost them. For the second time in less than twelve months, Isaac Smith had the opportunity to win the game against the Cats, but missed again. Fremantle and Hawthorn’s seasons are on the line. 2017 is over for the loser. Hawthorn’s form line is good. They have played the best three teams the last three weeks and nearly won them all. Mitchell has been outstanding and is adding goals to possessions. For Fremantle to win, they need to put time into him and not waste the ball like last week, otherwise Hawthorn will hurt them on the turnover. McCarthy’s return will help, but Hawthorn likes playing the Dockers and their polish could be the difference.
Stadium Record
Fremantle has lost their last three at Domain. Hawthorn has gone loss-win, the last nine times at Domain.
Head to Head Record
Fremantle has recently struggled against Hawthorn. Since 2010, the record is 9-1, Hawthorn’s way.
Best Bet
Hawthorn win $1.80.
Sydney v St Kilda
22 July, SCG
Sydney defeated their crosstown rivals last week, while St Kilda was extremely disappointing against Essendon. Sydney is the form team of the competition. They are sixth on the ladder, after winning 9 of their last 10. St Kilda was brilliant against Richmond two weeks ago and poor last week. The same thing happened earlier this year when they beat GWS and fell away after that. Why? Probably, because they are a building side and building sides generally have lapses and fluctuations in consistency. To beat Sydney, they need to be brave with the ball and ruthless without it. They also need to match Sydney in the contest. There are a number of ifs, and that is why I prefer sticking with the Swans. You know what you are going to get, and it’s generally pretty good.
Stadium Record
Sydney has won their last three at home. They beat Gold Coast, Essendon and the Western Bulldogs. St Kilda has lost their last three at the SCG, by 71, 59 and 29 points.
Head to Head Record
Sydney has dominated the Saints in recent times. They have won the last seven, including a 50-point victory this year.
Best Bet
Sydney win 1-39 $2.10.
Richmond v GWS
23 July, MCG
Richmond beat Brisbane in Melbourne, while GWS went down to Sydney. Richmond won by 31 points, but it was all about one man; Dustin Martin. Maybe he was inspired by Dangerfield, as the Brownlow Medal race heats up. He had 40 possessions and kicked 2 goals. Cameron’s late withdrawal impacted GWS’ plans and structures. Sydney was always a couple of goals in front all night, but the Giants fought it out. They actually haven’t won for three weeks after having two draws previously. There are superstars everywhere in this one, but I’m going to look at the lesser knowns. Richmond needs an impact from Lambert, Bulter, Astbury and Castagna, while GWS will want Perryman, Kennedy and Corr to play their role. GWS is coming off three extremely tough weeks and Richmond might just get them at the right time.
Stadium Record
Richmond is 6-2 at the MCG this year. Both their losses were under 10 points. GWS has only recorded 1 win in their short history at the MCG. However, they play there sparingly.
Head to Head Record
GWS stole victory from Richmond earlier this year. The Tigers opened up a five-goal lead and looked to have sealed the game late. However, a score review changed that and GWS went the length of the field to kick a goal and win.
Best Bet
Richmond at the line +6.5 $1.90.
Collingwood v West Coast
23 July, Etihad Stadium
Collingwood had a gritty win over Gold Coast, while West Coast defeated Fremantle in a scrappy derby. Collingwood was more consistent in the wet and the better team. West Coast’s defence was outstanding and their forwards were efficient. However, their midfield needs to lift against the Pies. Collingwood’s strength is in the middle, even without injured captain, Pendlebury. Mitchell, Priddis, Shuey, Hutchinson, Lewis and Gaff have important roles. If they can break even with Taylor, Treloar, Greenwood, Sidebottom, de Goey and Wells, it will go a long way to victory. If not, Collingwood will get first use and their improving forward line will get scoring opportunities. If they then utilise those chances by lowering the eyes, honouring the lead and not banging the ball long into their forward 50, they can challenge the Eagles in Melbourne.
Stadium Record
This is Collingwood’s first game at Etihad this year. They have lost 7 of their last 8 there. West Coast has won 4 of their last 6 at Etihad and are 2-1 there this year.
Head to Head Record
Collingwood beat the Eagles at the MCG last year. Prior to that, West Coast won three in a row.
Best Bet
Collingwood win $2.25.
Brisbane v Carlton
23 July, Gabba
The round starts with a blockbuster and ends with two teams near the bottom of the ladder. While Brisbane and Carlton aren’t winning many games, don’t be fooled by that. They are building the foundations for future success and they are both on the right track. As we turn our focus to the now and look at this game, there are key players in both sides. Zorko has been tremendous all year, however, he has been tagged twice and struggled. Richmond effectively shut him down last week, Carlton will probably implement similar tactics. Gibbs is a star and continued his excellent form last week, even without Cripps alongside him. Carlton sustained further injuries last week, and that could be the difference in a tight one. Brisbane, just.
Stadium Record
Brisbane is 1-6 at home this year. That solidary win was against Fremantle. Carlton has lost their last three at the Gabba.
Head to Head Record
Brisbane has won 4 of the last 5 against Carlton. They split last year’s games 1-1.
Best Bet
Brisbane win $2.25.
Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
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