Adelaide v Hawthorn
22 June, Adelaide Oval
This is the last Thursday night clash in the home and away season and it is a complete mismatch. Top of the ladder Adelaide against the languishing Hawks. Adelaide is coming off the bye after a clinical display against the Saints, while the injury-riddled Hawks lost to the Suns last outing. Sloane has been effectively tagged in recent times and Shiels is an obvious matchup. Apart from that it looks lopsided, although Birchall, Hodge and Breust’s returns helps. Hawthorn still has a host of important injuries, while the Crows are pretty healthy. Lever deserves a mention. He has been outstanding at halfback this year for the Crows. He is defensively sound and an offense weapon. In this match, the Crows will look to score heavily against their counterparts, while Hawthorn will find out about their young stocks. Expect a big win to the Crows.
Stadium Record
The Crows are 6-1 at home this year. Five of those wins were by more than 50 points. Hawthorn lost to the Power by 51 points earlier this month in Adelaide.
Head to Head Record
Adelaide ended a 7 game losing streak against the Hawks when they beat them by 24 points in Round 2.
Best Bet
Adelaide win 40+ $1.60.
Sydney v Essendon
23 June, SCG
Sydney is coming off a brilliant and possibly season defining win against the Tigers, while the Bombers return from their bye in good form, after dismantling the Power two weeks ago. Sydney were jumped by Richmond and looked slow in defence. The game changed in the middle and there was an even contribution. Essendon’s ball movement was the key against Port Adelaide and I’m tipping that style won’t change against the Swans. The Bombers are electric when they flip the ball around off the back flank. They are at their most dangerous when their speed of ball is matched by their pressure. The confines of the SCG might hamper their spread. Either way Sydney will look to win the clearances and contest, while the Bombers will hunt and then look to counter. This will be a fascinating game, especially if Franklin fires against an opponent he has feasted on before.
Stadium Record
The Swans have won 2 of their last 3 at home. They comfortably beat the Dogs and Lions, and lost a close one to the Hawks.
Head to Head Record
Sydney has won the last 6 against Essendon. The Bombers last tasted victory over the Swans in 2011.
Best Bet
Sydney win 1-39 $2.05.
Collingwood v Port Adelaide
24 June, MCG
Collingwood is coming off a bye, while Port Adelaide defeated a determined Brisbane and moved into the Top 4. Port did what was expected against the Lions, but they still have questions to answer after their last performance in Victoria two weeks ago. The Pies have been a different side since quarter time against Hawthorn in Round 9. Their ball transition has improved and they are kicking more goals. Collingwood’s star midfield controls much of their fortunes and they have been well supported by Grundy. He is a mobile ruckman who finds the football. Grundy against Ryder will be a crucial battle as both have been outstanding this year. Port’s other big man, Dixon, is another key player in this game. Former Demon, Dunn, probably gets the job. He is undersized and if the Pies don’t exert enough midfield pressure, it will be a tough afternoon. Collingwood is still missing some key players and that could be the difference.
Stadium Record
Collingwood has split their last six at the MCG. Port won both their matches at the MCG last year. They beat the Pies and Tigers.
Head to Head Record
Port Adelaide has won 4 of the last 5 against the Pies, including a 67 point victory last year.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide half-time/full-time $2.25.
Brisbane v GWS
24 June, Gabba
The Lions were brave in Adelaide, but lost by 40, while the Giants are coming off the bye. Brisbane is bottom of the ladder because they are young and inexperienced. Zorko has taken his game to another level and if the Lions received more attention, he would be receiving more recognition for his line breaking speed and ball use. The Giants last outing was a 1 point loss to Carlton. They made uncharacteristic decision-making errors late in that game. While it cost them the win, it reinforced valuable lessons. Greene was the main culprit and expect him to bounce back. He is a star. He kicks goals, gets plenty of the football and is aggressive towards the opposition. Brisbane once again proved they can match it with teams for a quarter or two, but defeating the Giants requires four quarters of sustained pressure.
Stadium Record
Brisbane beat Fremantle in their last home game. It ended a 5 game losing streak at the Gabba. The Giants have won their last two at the Gabba by 79 and 45 points.
Head to Head Record
GWS has won the last three against the Lions. They were five-goal plus victories.
Best Bet
Brisbane first quarter handicap against slow-starting Giants +7.5 $1.89.
Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne
24 June, Etihad Stadium
The Dogs are out of the eight after successive big losses, while North was outplayed by St Kilda. After being physically tested against the Swans, many expected a response from the reigning premiers but it didn’t come. Tom Boyd was a hero in last year’s Grand Final, but he hasn’t recaptured that form. He is still young and will be a force, but the Dogs need him to lift. The Roos were never really in the game against the Saints. They arrested some control in the third quarter but couldn’t capitalise. This game will be won in the middle and I’m anticipating a dogfight between Ziebell, Bontempelli, Cunnington, Liberatore, Gibson and Wallis. The outside players will be just as important with the likes of Atley and Johannisen offering pace. If the Bulldogs bring the pressure and quick hands in the contest that we saw last year, they should win, but they aren’t playing anything like they did in last year’s final series.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne has won 2 of their 8 games at Etihad this year. The Bulldogs 57 point defeat against the Demons last week was their first lost at Etihad this year.
Head to Head Record
The Dogs have won 3 of the last 4 against the Roos, including a 3 point win on Good Friday.
Best Bet
Bulldogs win 1-39 $2.00.
West Coast v Melbourne
24 June, Domain Stadium
The Eagles physically took it up to the Cats and won the battle, while Melbourne completely outplayed the Bulldogs. West Coast played their best footy for the season. They forced the Cats to kick long and outnumbered them at the contest. Melbourne easily accounted for the Bulldogs and what was most impressive was the attack on the ball and opposition. They laid 85 tackles. Melbourne flies west with belief they can win. Oliver has been outstanding all year and is part of a hardnosed midfield. However, the long dimensions at Domain will test their leg speed, particularly with Jetta’s resurgence. If the Eagles bring the same intent as last week I can’t see Melbourne causing an upset in front of the West Coast faithful.
Stadium Record
The Eagles have won 5 of 6 at Domain this year. Melbourne has lost their last 17 at Domain. Their last win in the west was in 2004.
Head to Head Record
West Coast has won the last 9 between these teams. Melbourne’s last win over the Eagles was in 2009.
Best Bet
West Coast -16.5 $1.90.
Geelong v Fremantle
25 June, Simonds Stadium
The Cats are coming off a 13 point loss to the Eagles, while Fremantle were smashed by the cellar-dwellers in their last outing. Geelong never got the game on their terms and never really threatened the Eagles. Injuries to Cockatoo and Scott Selwood didn’t help. Fremantle’s last effort was unacceptable as Brisbane carved through them. Even though Fremantle has fared better than most in recent times at the Cattery, this one doesn’t look good, especially with Geelong welcoming back Hawkins after his much-hyped jumper punch. The Cats have dangerous players on every line; Tuohy, Henderson, Duncan, Menzel and Hawkins, and of course Dangerfield and Joel Selwood. The Dockers need to change their recent form to even challenge. Walters and the Hill brothers present some challenges with their foot skills, but the Dockers form and confidence is best symbolised by McCarthy’s drop since the start of the year.
Stadium Record
Geelong as won 14 of their last 15 at home. In the last four years the Dockers have played at Simonds Stadium 4 times, for 2 wins and 2 losses.
Head to Head Record
The Cats have won the last two against the Dockers, including a 42 point victory in Round 1.
Best Bet
Fremantle’s first quarters haven’t been strong, Geelong first quarter handicap -8.5 $1.82.
Richmond v Carlton
25 June, MCG
Traditional rivals meet on a Sunday afternoon at the MCG. Richmond lost another close one last week, this time to Sydney, while Carlton backed up their magnificent win against the Giants by beating the Suns in Queensland. Richmond has now lost their last seven matches when the result was 10 points or less. The focus is on their inability to finish games, but what keeps being overlooked is they are playing good football against good sides. Carlton came at the Suns and physically targeted them, particularly Ablett. Martin was exceptional when these teams opened the season, and I wonder if the Blues will employ similar tactics. At the very least I’m tipping Ed Curnow will pay him close attention. This should be a good game. Both teams have stars in the middle and key players down back. Both forward lines are developing and converting forward entries into goals is crucial. I’m backing the Tigers because they are playing well, but Carlton has shown all year they are hard to play against.
Stadium Record
Richmond is 5-2 at the MCG this year. Carlton has won their last three at the MCG. They beat Collingwood, Sydney and Essendon.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers have won the last five against the Blues, including a 43 point victory in Round 1.
Best Bet
Richmond win 1-39 $2.05.
St Kilda v Gold Coast
25 June, Etihad Stadium
The Saints returned to the winner’s list with a commanding victory over North, while the Suns had a disappointing home loss to the Blues. St Kilda rediscovered their team defence and kept the Roos to four goals in the first three quarters. Just when you think the Suns are building they let themselves down. They did not work as hard as the Blues and lost. Barlow’s injury is a cruel blow. I’m focusing on two players for this one; Ross and Lynch. Ross keeps finding the football for the Saints and is averaging over 30 disposals a game. He is an important player because he, along with Koby Stevens, gives Jack Steven the support he is after. Lynch was atypically quite against Carlton. He did not kick a goal or have his usual physical presence. I expect him to assert himself in this contest as he is a fine young leader.
Stadium Record
The Saints have been a 50-50 proposition at Etihad this year. Gold Coast is 1-1 at Etihad this year. It is much healthier than their overall record of 3-12.
Head to Head Record
Gold Coast has won 4 of the last 6 against the Saints, including a 40 point victory last year. Three of those wins were in Queensland.
Best Bet
Suns +26.5 $1.90.
Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
