Port Adelaide v Hawthorn
1 June, Adelaide Oval
Port are coming off a 2 point loss, while the Hawks knocked over the Swans in Sydney. Port Adelaide are 5-4 and their four losses have been against the Top 4 sides. Some argue that’s good form, while others say they need a scalp. Even though Hawthorn was brave and relentless against Sydney, they are not a Top 4 side. The Power has an even spread in the midfield and Ryder has been good in the ruck. Polec’s speed and ball carrying ability on the outside has lifted them. Robbie Gray is spending more time forward and Stratton’s injury means someone else gets the job. Port’s backline stood up last week and there is nothing to suggest they cannot control Gunston, Roughead and Puopolo. The Hawks are coming off a six day break and back-to-back interstate trips. Everything is in the Power’s favour.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 2-2 at home this year. Their two victories were by 90 and 89 points. Hawthorn are 3-2 at the Adelaide Oval, however those two losses were against Port Adelaide.
Head to Head Record
Port is one of the few teams to have a positive recent record against the Hawks. They have won 3 of the last 5 matches.
Best Bet
Port win by 40+ $2.15.
Geelong v Adelaide
2 June, Simonds Stadium
For the third week in a row the Cats are at home and this clash looks as appealing as the previous two, especially with Adelaide coming off a massive victory. Geelong just got over the line against Port. Joel Selwood was his usual self, while Dangerfield kicked the winning goal. Adelaide was dominant all over the ground and the 100 point margin could have been more with some early inaccuracy. Sloane worked through some close attention again. I wouldn’t be surprised if Scott Selwood goes to him this week. In other matchups, Bews has an okay record against Betts, while Lonergan and Henderson will take Walker and Jenkins. Talia is a tough opponent for Hawkins who has been quiet the past few weeks. The midfield battle will be crucial. Duncan has been outstanding for the Cats while the Crouch brothers are playing good consistent footy. This is another tight match and it could come down to goalkicking with both teams squandering chances last week.
Stadium Record
Geelong has won 14 of their last 15 at home. That one loss was to Sydney last year. Simonds Stadium is a graveyard for Adelaide. They have lost their last nine there and haven’t tasted victory since 2003.
Head to Head Record
The Cats have won the last four against the Crows by 30, 26, 39 and 38 points.
Best Bet
Geelong win $2.10.
Gold Coast v West Coast
3 June, Metricon Stadium
The Suns went down to Melbourne by 35 points, after leading by 30, while West Coast was outplayed by an injury-ravaged GWS. Gold Coast has dropped to third last on the ladder. They have been in the competition since 2011, yet have not made an impact. Why? West Coast had everything in their favour last week. They were at home and against a team that had lots of outs. The Eagles were missing a few, but comparably speaking they were in front. They couldn’t take advantage of the situation and were dominated in the clearances. On face value, you expect West Coast to beat the Suns, but who knows. Kennedy is out and will be missed, while Ablett is back for Gold Coast. If the Suns match the Eagles in the contest like the Giants did, they could hurt them on the outside with run and carry.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast has won 2 of their last 3 at home. They beat the Cats and Hawks, but lost to the Crows. The Eagles have played there twice for 1 win and a draw.
Head to Head Record
The Eagles have never lost to the Suns. There was a draw in 2015, but the other 7 games were all Eagle victories.
Best Bet
Gold Coast win first quarter at home $2.11.
GWS v Essendon
3 June, Spotless Stadium
The undermanned Giants beat the Eagles in Perth, while the Bombers went down to Richmond. It was a fantastic win by the Giants. They were full of injuries and beat the Eagles on the inside. Essendon was outgunned by the Tigers. They could not control Richmond’s stars. I keep thinking the GWS’ injuries have to catch up with them, but they keep winning. They know how to win multiple ways. They can win pretty, ugly, on the outside or on the inside. Like Richmond they have stars in the middle. Then throw in Cameron, Patton and Greene up forward. Essendon needs an even contribution to beat the Giants. They also need Daniher to kick goals. He will likely get Davis, who does not give an inch. It looks a massive challenge for the Bombers and probably beyond them.
Stadium Record
The Giants have won their last three home games by 3, 3 and 102 points. Essendon last played at Spotless in 2015 and they lost by 32 points.
Head to Head Record
The Giants have won the last two against Essendon by 27 and 32 points.
Best Bet
GWS win 1-39 $2.15.
North Melbourne v Richmond
3 June, Etihad Stadium
North beat the Blues twice last week, while Richmond defeated the Bombers. North got out to a seven goal lead, before Carlton worked their way back into the game. The Kangaroos outscored the young Blues in the last quarter to win by three goals. Ziebell has been outstanding as the new skipper, while younger players like Garner, Dumont and Turner have also flourished with the next generation taking over. Richmond was rewarded for effort and it was the usual suspects: Martin, Cotchin and Rance. This should be an enthralling contest even though it is fifth versus thirteenth. Richmond has the star power, while North has a group of young players taking their opportunities. There is one other intangible factor and that it that North has recently been a bogey team for the Tigers.
Stadium Record
North has won 2 of their last 3 there, with wins against Carlton and Gold Coast. The Tigers have played 3 times at Etihad in the last two seasons for 3 losses. They lost to Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs twice.
Head to Head Record
The Roos have won 7 of the last 8 against Richmond. That one loss was the final round in 2015 when North Melbourne rested numerous players before the finals. The same teams played each other the next week in the elimination final and North won by 17 points.
Best Bet
North have been starting well, while Richmond not as much. North win first quarter $1.99.
Fremantle v Collingwood
4 June, Domain Stadium
Fremantle were horrible against Adelaide last week, while Collingwood pulled away from a persistent Brisbane. The Dockers were sluggish and paid for it. They have lost four games this year and they are all against good teams. Collingwood’s goalkicking accuracy issues continued, but they would be happy with having 39 shots on goal against the Lions. Fremantle needs to bounce back and the start will be crucial. The Dockers have been giving up early leads. It starts in the middle with Fyfe, Neale, Blakely and the Hill brothers opposed to Pendlebury, Treloar, Adams, Sidebottom and Wells. The next question surrounds Collingwood’s forwards. Can Moore compete against Hamling? Will Elliott and Hoskin-Elliott cover Fasolo’s unfortunate absence? The Dockers bounced back in Round 3 when they beat the Bulldogs after losing by 89 points the previous week. Can they do it again and regroup against Collingwood?
Stadium Record
Fremantle has won 4 of their last 5 at home. The one loss was to their cotenants, the West Coast Eagles. Collingwood has lost their last five at Domain. Their last win there was in 2011.
Head to Head Record
Collingwood won their only battle against Fremantle last year by 48 points. The Dockers won the previous three.
Best Bet
Fremantle has been slow starters this year. Collingwood win first quarter $1.94.
Bye: Brisbane, Carlton, Melbourne, St Kilda, Sydney and Western Bulldogs
Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
