Geelong v Port Adelaide
25 May, Simonds Stadium
Geelong play consecutive home games after beating the Bulldogs last week, while Port are coming off an extended break after their Chinese adventure. Geelong was invigorated last week. They set a new club tackle record of 134 and their good players were brilliant. Port smashed a disappointing Gold Coast in Shanghai two weeks ago. Henderson was back for Geelong, and Taylor played forward kicking five goals. Port’s tall defenders are not household names but Clurey, Jonas, Trengrove and Hombsch have important roles against Taylor, Hawkins and Menzel. Their running defenders are just as important because Geelong has been opened up on transition. Wingard’s injury will hurt the Power. Geelong is aiming to replicate their defensive mechanisms and S. Selwood’s return has aided that. Geelong is always tough opposition at home.
Stadium Record
Geelong has an intimidating home record having won 13 of their last 14 at Simonds Stadium. Port has lost their last 6 at Simonds. Their last win there was in 2007.
Head to Head Record
Geelong has won 16 of the last 18 against the Power, including a 48 point victory last year.
Best Bet
Geelong win 1-39 $2.25.
Sydney v Hawthorn
26 May, SCG
This contest will be very different to some of the huge Sydney/Hawthorn clashes in recent times. Sydney are now rolling after winning their third straight game, while the Hawks turned a 43 point lead into an 18 point loss. Sydney has regained important players from injury and their best players are recapturing their form. Hawthorn is in transition and a host of injuries are complicating it. Sydney looks to have the Hawks covered all over the ground. They have the midfield depth, goal scoring power and a solid defence. Tom Mitchell plays against his old side. His 50 possession game last week divided opinions regarding how damaging his possessions were. We might get a greater insight this week as to how the Swans approach him.
Stadium Record
The last home outing for Sydney was a 54 point victory. That win ended a three game losing streak at the SCG. Hawthorn has won their last three at the SCG by 5, 7 and 46 points.
Head to Head Record
Since the 2014 Grand Final it has been two wins each. Interestingly, the away team has won each time.
Best Bet
Sydney -30.5 $1.90.
Western Bulldogs v St Kilda
27 May, Etihad Stadium
These two teams lost last week and are both 5-4. The Dogs were involved in a seesawing contest against the Cats. They recorded over 100 tackles and looked dangerous off the back flank at times. Wallis was good in his return. St Kilda was completely outplayed by the Swans and look to move on. This should be a ripper contest with both teams playing on their home deck. The Dogs want to get the ball zipping around the contest, while the Saints want to use their leg speed. Nothing splits these teams defensively as they both pride themselves on their defensive pressure. It could come down to some individual brilliance with the Dogs looking to Bontempelli, McCrae, Wood and Dahlhaus, while the Saints have Steven, Riewoldt and Ross. This should be a tight contest, and the Dogs know how to win close games.
Stadium Record
The Dogs have won their last seven at Etihad, including four this year. St Kilda has played at Etihad 7 times this year for 4 wins.
Head to Head Record
The Western Bulldogs have won 4 of the last 6 games between these teams, however St Kilda beat the Dogs by 15 points last time they met.
Best Bet
St Kilda +12.5 $1.90.
Melbourne v Gold Coast
27 May, TIO Traeger Park
After smashing the Crows two weeks ago, Melbourne backed it up by losing to North. Meanwhile Gold Coast is coming off a bye. The football world generally believes Melbourne should be beating teams like North, Hawthorn and Fremantle, but they aren’t. The Suns are a similar team to those mentioned in regards to ladder position. Melbourne’s midfield looks good and is not short of grunt, but do they have the polish and foot skills they need? The loss of Gawn and Hogan can’t be underestimated. The Suns have shown that their best is good and they play their best football when the ball is continually moving. Expect them to play on at all costs and try and hurt Melbourne on the outside. This will be a very interesting game, particularly being played in a neutral venue- Alice Springs.
Stadium Record
Melbourne has played Port Adelaide three times in the last three years in Alice Springs for three losses. The Suns have never played at Traeger Park.
Head to Head Record
Melbourne has won the last three against the Suns. They beat them by 2 and 73 points last year.
Best Bet
Gold Coast win $2.75.
Richmond v Essendon
27 May, MCG
Who would want to barrack for Richmond? They broke more hearts by losing to GWS, while Essendon backed up their performance and are coming off two excellent wins. If you take the glass half full approach Richmond is playing good football and are challenging, if not dominating good sides at times. They just can’t finish their good work. Essendon is playing with flair and speed and knocked over two Top 4 sides in a row. This is an intriguing contest. Richmond has the star midfielders, yet Essendon has the pace. Rance against Daniher will be a beauty while Hartley has been taking the number one forward and probably gets Riewoldt. That frees up Hurley. This one could go either way and the adage of going the home side is not applicable.
Stadium Record
Richmond’s after the siren loss to Fremantle a fortnight ago ended a four game winning streak at the MCG. Essendon has also won 4 of their last 5 at the MCG. Their only loss was to the Blues.
Head to Head Record
Richmond has won the last 5 against the Bombers. The biggest margin during that time was 38 points last year.
Best Bet
Richmond win $1.87.
Adelaide v Fremantle
27 May, Adelaide Oval
Adelaide remains top of the ladder after disposing of Brisbane, while the Dockers came from behind again to defeat the Blues. Adelaide was challenged early but their class prevailed. Sloane was tagged but worked his way through it. There is no doubt he will be seeing Blakely this week. The Dockers were jumped and then turned the game through wonderful clearance work. Sandilands and Neale led the charge. Stephen Hill’s return allowed Walters to spend more time forward and his third quarter was devastating. Adelaide is daunting at home and for Fremantle to have any chance they need to control the middle of the ground, without Sandilands who is out, and play four quarters of sustained football. If they do that it gives them a chance, it doesn’t mean they win.
Stadium Record
Adelaide was a surprise loser last time at home, but their record is still imposing having won 20 of their last 23 there. Fremantle has only 1 win from 5 attempts. They played there earlier this year and lost by 89 points.
Head to Head Record
Adelaide has won the last two against the Dockers. Before that Fremantle won four in a row.
Best Bet
Adelaide first quarter handicap -9.5 $1.89.
Collingwood v Brisbane
28 May, MCG
Collingwood staged a remarkable turnaround to defeat the Hawks last week, while Brisbane fought early but ultimately lost by 80 points to Adelaide. There was an eerie and almost dire feeling around the MCG at quarter time for the Pies. Their game plan looked stagnant and the fans were venting. Things changed when they played with more dare and the forwards appreciated the fast ball movement. Surely that style of football is now their modus operandi. Brisbane once again played well for a quarter or so, but their young players couldn’t maintain it. D. Beams was their best on his return and he comes up against his old side this week. Will Greenwood tag him or does a defensive player take away from their midfield strength?
Stadium Record
Collingwood’s win over the Hawks means they have won 2 of their last 7 at the MCG. Brisbane has only won 1 of their last 7 at the MCG. That win was a resounding 67 point victory against Collingwood in 2014.
Head to Head Record
Since 2010 Collingwood has won 5 of their 6 encounters. Their biggest victory was last year’s 78 point hiding.
Best Bet
Brisbane first quarter handicap +10.5 $1.89.
Carlton v North Melbourne
28 May, Etihad Stadium
Carlton lost in the west to the Dockers, while North retained their dominance over the Demons with a fiery 14 point win. Carlton jumped the Dockers and led by as much as 28 points. They are fronting up each week and competing but can’t sustain it, which is indicative of young sides. Rowe’s season ending injury will hurt, particularly with Waite and Brown’s form. Brown kicked five goals last week and showed his height and athleticism can trouble opponents. The midfield battle looks pretty even here with two mobile ruckman in good form. Weitering played down back for a bit and looks at home. He might spend more time there with Rowe out. He and Marchbank have big roles. That leaves the forward lines. Carlton doesn’t have the presence that North does and they are only averaging 70 points a week compared to North’s 94.
Stadium Record
Carlton has lost their last three at Etihad Stadium by 19, 26 and 32 points. Two of those losses were to St Kilda. North has only won 1 of their 7 at Etihad. That win was against the Suns.
Head to Head Record
The Kangaroos have won the last two against the Blues by 67 and 64 points.
Best Bet
North -17.5 $1.90.
West Coast v GWS
28 May, Domain Stadium
The Eagles had a disappointing loss to Essendon last week, while the Giants somehow found a way to win against the Tigers. The Eagles were smashed in the first half. They were outworked and outplayed. Their coach looked for a response, but he didn’t get one. The Giants are learning to win without playing their best football. After being on the receiving end of a video review, they then took eight seconds to hit the lead. The Giants are just hanging in there at the moment and are ripe for the taking. Richmond and Collingwood should have knocked them over but didn’t. West Coast should take advantage of the Giants injury situation, especially with Johnson and Lobb joining the extended list of outs, and play much improved football in front of their home fans. Don’t be surprised if they get on a roll and kick a big score against the wounded visitors.
Stadium Record
There might be no harder task than playing the Eagles at home. They have won 26 of their last 29 at Domain. GWS beat Fremantle at Domain last year and that was their first win there in 7 attempts.
Head to Head Record
The Eagles have never lost to the Giants. They won last year’s battle by a point with Naitanui’s last kick of the day. The previous results were more lopsided: 87, 111, 100 and 81 points.
Best Bet
West Coast win 40+ $4.50.
Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
