2017 AFL Round 1 Preview
Carlton v Richmond
7:20pm AEDT Thursday 23 March
MCG
The season begins with the traditional Thursday night clash between old rivals, Carlton and Richmond. Carlton will once again field a young and developing side, which places extra responsibility on Murphy, Gibbs, Cripps and Kreuzer in the middle. Richmond also has stars in the middle, such as Cotchin, Martin and Prestia. They have more options up forward and the best fullback in the league in Rance. This is the type of game Richmond needs to win if it wants to play finals.
Stadium Record
Carlton has lost 5 of their last 6 at the MCG. Their only win during that time was a 20 point victory over Melbourne. Richmond split their 14 games at the MCG last year.
Head to Head Record
Richmond turned around a poor record against the Blues and have won the last four, including a 9 point win in Round 1 last season.
Best Bet - Richmond -14.5 $1.91
Collingwood v Western Bulldogs
7:50pm AEDT Friday 24 March
MCG
This game has plenty of permutations and it is just Round 1. Are the young Magpies ready to play consistent football? How will the Bulldogs back up after their historic premiership? Will Travis Cloke recapture his form in the red, white and blue? The Pies fancy their chances, getting the Dogs in Round 1, as they have an extra month of preseason, but when the Dogs have twenty-two contributors they are hard to beat. Expect a hard fought contest even though it is the reigning premiers versus a side that hasn’t played finals in three years.
Stadium Record
Collingwood won 6 of their 14 games at the MCG last year. The Bulldogs last memory of the MCG was the victorious Grand Final. That victory maintained their 100% record there last year.
Head to Head Record
The Western Bulldogs have won the last four games against Collingwood. They won both encounters last year by 3 points and 21 points.
Best Bet - Western Bulldogs -14.5 $1.91
St Kilda v Melbourne
4:35pm AEDT Saturday 25 March
Etihad Stadium
Both these sides are on the rise and they have added to their stocks over summer. St Kilda has speed and youth which suits Etihad. They have multiple options up forward and that allows Riewoldt to roam around the ground. Melbourne has a hard edge with Jones, Vince, Dyson, Viney and Lewis in the middle and a dominant ruckman in Gawn. Under normal circumstances this is a flip of the coin game, however St Kilda at Etihad Stadium is Melbourne’s hoodoo. Can they break it?
Stadium Record
The Saints like their home deck. They have won 8 of their last 10 at Etihad. On the other hand Melbourne loathes the indoor stadium. Remarkably, they have only won 1 of their last 25 games there.
Head to Head Record
Melbourne supporters look away now. St Kilda has won the last 14 games against the Demons and besides a 2 point victory in 2015, the results have not been close. Melbourne’s last victory over the Saints was in 2006.
Best Bet - St Kilda win $1.80
Sydney v Port Adelaide
4:35pm AEDT Saturday 25 March,
SCG
Beaten grand finalist, Sydney, start their season at home against the unpredictable Port Adelaide. Sydney looks to have more stars in the middle (Kennedy, Jack, Hannerbery and Parker versus Gray, Boak, Wines and Ebert), while the ruck contest will be interesting with the sometimes maligned Tippet against the returning Ryder. Franklin has caused Port problems in the past and either Hombsch or Trengrove will likely get the job. Port has forward weapons, but Grundy, Rampe, Alir and Smith are good matchups against Dixon, Westhoff and Wingard. You know what you are going to get with the Swans, especially at home.
Stadium Record
The Swans have won 14 of their last 16 at home, including a 67 point victory over Port Adelaide last year. The Power has not won at the SCG since 2006.
Head to Head Record
Sydney has controlled Port in recent times. They have won 13 of the last 14 against them. Port’s only win was in Adelaide in 2013.
Best Bet - Sydney -26.5 1.91
Essendon v Hawthorn
7:25pm AEDT Saturday 25 March
MCG
With the drug saga and suspensions finally completed, Essendon can once again focus on football, and they come up against a now mortal Hawthorn. The Bombers have got the Hawks at the right time with the club suspension of ex-captain Hodge, and the departures of Sam Mitchell and Lewis. Roughead returns to the side, but so does Hooker and Hurley for Essendon. Rioli looms large and Bagley might get the imposing job. The midfield battle will be intriguing with the inclusions of Heppell, Watson, O’Meara and Tom Mitchell. It’s too risky to dismiss the Hawks, but don’t be surprised if a rejuvenated Bombers outfit challenge the once champs.
Stadium Record
In recent times the Bombers have a 50% strike rate at the MCG, excluding last year’s anomaly. Hawthorn won 7 of their 12 games at the MCG last season, however their last two games there were finals losses.
Head to Head Record
Hawthorn has won 7 of the last 8 games between these teams. Essendon’s only win during that time was a dramatic 2 point victory at the start of 2015.
Best Bet - Hawthorn -10.5 1.91
Gold Coast v Brisbane
7:25pm AEDT Saturday 25 March
Metricon Stadium
The Q Clash comes to town early. After six years in the AFL it is time for the Suns to make their mark and stamp their brand on the competition. New leaders Lynch and May are worthy choices as they embody what the Suns aspire to be; hard, competitive and combative. I can see them causing the young Lions problems at either end. Brisbane’s experienced and best players are in the midfield and the likes of Dayne Beams, Rockcliff, Zorko and Rich need to play well and hit the scoreboard for them win. I expect the Sun’s midfield, led by the returning Ablett, to handle the Lions engine room and win at home.
Stadium Record
5 of Gold Coast’s 6 wins last year came at home, including a 26 point victory over Brisbane. The Lions have lost their last three games at Metricon Stadium.
Head to Head Record
The Suns have won 4 of the last 6 games between these teams. They split their 2 games last year with the home team winning each time.
Best Bet - Gold Coast -19.5 $1.87
North Melbourne v West Coast
Sunday 1:10pm AEDT 26 March
Etihad Stadium
It was a summer of change for the Kangaroos. New leaders and new faces now carry the baton, and they are up against it in Round 1. Sam Mitchell’s inclusion has strengthened the Eagles and they look to have potency all over the field. For North to win they need Goldstein to dominate the ruck, the midfield to win their share of the ball, restrict Darling and Kennedy up forward and find multiple goalkicking options. It can be done through team commitment and the presentation of opportunities, but I don’t see it happening against the Eagles, who lost early road games last year and played catch up all season.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne has won 2 of their last 7 games at Etihad. Most of those losses were against the best sides. The Eagles don’t mind Etihad. They have a 50% strike rate there in recent times.
Head to Head Record
West Coast has won 7 of the last 9 against the Kangaroos, however most of those games were in Perth and the rest in Tasmania. The last time these two played each other in Melbourne was in 2010.
Best Bet - North Melbourne +17.5 $1.91
Adelaide v GWS Giants
3:20pm AEDT Sunday 26 March
Adelaide Oval
Two good teams meet on a Sunday afternoon in Adelaide and it should be a cracker of a game. The Crows will look to break even in the midfield and kick goals with their dangerous forward line, meanwhile the Giants will want to run and spread and attack in waves. Normally I lean towards the home side because good teams rarely lose at home, but with Adelaide’s injury list I’m just favouring the Giants. They have the midfield speed and depth, even without Coniglio, and while Talia is a tough opponent, he can’t stop Cameron, Patton and Lobb.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are a force at home. They have won 16 of their last 18 games at the Adelaide Oval. The Giants have 1 win from 4 attempts. They beat Port Adelaide by 19 points last year.
Head to Head Record
The Crows lead the battle 6-1, however most of those wins came during the Giants’ infancy. It has been 1 win apiece in the last two years.
Best Bet - GWS -9.5 $1.91
Fremantle v Geelong
7:40pm AEDT Sunday 26 March
Domain Stadium
Round 1 ends in the west and there have been some spiteful clashes between Fremantle and Geelong in the past decade. Fyfe against Dangerfield will be worth viewing and Fremantle’s new look forward line will be tested against a professional Geelong backline. The Cats have also made a dramatic shift with Taylor likely to spend time forward. Geelong’s undersized ruckmen come up against the giant Sandilands, and the new third man up rule changes could affect Geelong more than any other side. Since Ross Lyon took over the Dockers they have a good record against the Cats and they are not without a chance, however I will side with the team that finished 2016 third, not third last.
Stadium Record
Fremantle had 3 wins and 9 losses at Subiaco last year. The Cats have played at Subiaco four times in the last four years for 2 wins and 2 losses. Last year Geelong beat Fremantle by 17 points at Subiaco.
Head to Head Record
The Dockers have a slight edge over Geelong in recent times. They have won 5 of the last 8 games between these teams including wins in Perth, Geelong and Melbourne.
Best Bet - Fremantle +13.5 $1.91
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