Adelaide v GWS
7 September, Adelaide Oval
The finals begins on Thursday night in front of a packed and parochial Adelaide crowd. The Crows rightfully finished top of the ladder, even though they lost their last two games of the season. They rested some names in the final round and Sloane is named after having his appendix removed. GWS slipped to fourth after a heavy defeat against fellow contenders, Geelong, in the final round. The Crouch brothers have been outstanding for the Crows and they will up against a formable midfield that contains Ward, Kelly, Shiel, Whitfield, Scully and Coniglio. Jacobs has been solid all year in the ruck, while Mumford has battled form and injuries. Adelaide’s forward line is dangerous and if they break even in the middle of the ground they could cause the Giants problems. However, if GWS control the midfield battle, their forward options are plentiful. The one query about the Giants’ forward is their defensive pressure. They are so talented that they don’t have a designated defensive forward and a lot of Adelaide’s drive comes from the back flank. The final consideration is GWS’ poor record in South Australia.
Stadium Record
Adelaide’s home record this year is 9-3. Their last match there was a 3-point loss to Sydney. GWS’ overall record at the Adelaide Oval is 1-4. Their victory was over Port Adelaide last year.
Head to Head Record
The Giants have only ever beaten the Crows once in eight attempts. More recently, Adelaide has won the last two by 56 and 22 points.
Best Bet
Adelaide Half-time/Full-time $1.83.
Geelong v Richmond
8 September, MCG
What a contest and atmosphere this will be. Two big clubs playing in front of a packed MCG. Geelong looked wobbly late in the year after losing to Sydney and getting important injuries and suspensions, but they won their last three to finish second. Richmond polished off St Kilda to claim third and just as importantly they claimed Martin’s signature last week. He will be pivotal in this match. Geelong has options such as Scott Selwood or Blicavs for Martin, while Stewart can take him when resting forward. Dangerfield is the other key player. He is arguably the best player in the competition and September is waiting for him. The midfield will be huge with Joel Selwood named and he will join Duncan. Richmond has their skipper, Cotchin, who has not been at his best in finals and Prestia. In other match ups Taylor could do a defensive job on Rance like he did a few weeks ago, and that leaves Astbury to take Hawkins. Longeran will probably get Riewoldt and that leaves Henderson free. That could work as an intercept option, but Richmond’s small forwards will be too nibble for him.
Stadium Record
Geelong is 3-2 at the MCG this year, with two of those victories against modern rival Hawthorn. Richmond’s MCG record this year is outstanding. They are 9-2 and the two losses were by less than ten points.
Head to Head Record
Geelong has dominated Richmond in recent times. They have won the last 13 against them, however the last four have been close.
Best Bet
Sydney v Essendon
9 September, SCG
The Swans created history by being the first team to make finals after starting the season 0-6. Since then they have been the form side of the competition. Essendon did enough to defeat Fremantle last up and secure an equally historic finals berth. Franklin looms large in this one. He has feasted on the Bombers in the past and he enters on the back of a ten-goal haul. Hurley is Essendon’s All Australian key defender but he has been taking the second tall lately. Will they risk playing Hartley on Buddy in an elimination final? Sydney’s midfield is full of stars and Essendon will need to nullify them to have a chance. The good news for the Bombers is their best is good enough to beat anyone. They haven’t produced it for a while, but if they play aggressively and bring immense pressure, they can win. This was evident last time these teams played when Essendon led by three goals late in the game. Unfortunately, those last few minutes turned pear-shaped and Sydney got the chocolates. I expect them to get them again.
Stadium Record
Sydney has won their last six at home. Five of those wins were by seven goals or more. Essendon has lost their last five at the SCG. Their last win there was in 2009.
Head to Head Record
Sydney has won the last seven against Essendon, including an after-the-siren 1-point thriller earlier this year.
Best Bet
Sydney win 20-39 points $3.75.
Port Adelaide v West Coast
9 September, Adelaide Oval
This is the final and arguably most intriguing match during the first round of the finals. Port Adelaide finished fifth, but never defeated a team in the top eight all year, while West Coast has been up and down all year. The Eagles were tremendous last up defeating Adelaide to sneak into the finals, while Port Adelaide embarrassed the Suns. The midfield battle will be intense in this one. Wines, Boak, Powell-Pepper, Sam Gray and Wingard against Priddis, Gaff, Mitchell, Shuey and Jetta. Ryder has been outstanding in the ruck all year and has a clear advantage over West Coast's ruckmen. Kennedy has been superb since returning and Clurey probably gets first crack at him, but he will need help. At the other end there is Dixon, Westhoff and Robbie Gray. McGovern is the key post for the Eagles down back, but they don’t work in isolation. The Power will look to run and play aggressive football, while the Eagles will look to force them to kick the ball long and intercept across the halfback line. The start will be critical in this game because Port like getting off to fliers and West Coast also enjoys an early lead.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide is 8-4 at home this year, with two of those losses against crosstown rivals Adelaide. West Coast’s Adelaide Oval record is amazing. They are 5-1 there and 3-0 against Port Adelaide.
Head to Head Record
The Power defeated West Coast by 32 points in round 16. That win ended a three game losing streak against the Eagles.
Best Bet
Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
