What looked like a two-horse Brownlow race early in the season has quickly become a genuine logjam after Round 9.
Nick Daicos and Marcus Bontempelli remain top of our leaderboard, but there are now several genuine challengers emerging behind them as the season reaches its midway point.
Brownlow Leaderboard - Round 9
| Rank | Name | Team | Votes | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Daicos | Coll | 15.21 | $5.00 |
| 2 | Marcus Bontempelli | WB | 13.94 | $4.00 |
| 3 | Bailey Smith | Gee | 12.83 | $8.00 |
| 4 | Zak Butters | PA | 12.61 | $10 |
| 5 | Jai Newcombe | Haw | 12.37 | $26 |
| 6 | Christian Petracca | GC | 11.33 | $10 |
| 7 | Lachie Neale | BL | 10.43 | $17 |
| 8 | Harry Sheezel | NM | 10.17 | $51 |
Best Bet
I’m still leaning towards Christian Petracca despite the fact he’s unlikely to poll in Round 9 and currently sits sixth on our leaderboard.
The Suns now enter a really favourable stretch of games, facing Port Adelaide in Darwin before taking on North Melbourne in Round 11.
Gold Coast should enter both games as strong favourites, providing Petracca with a real opportunity to close the gap on the leaders.
Meanwhile, Nick Daicos faces a likely James Jordan tag against Sydney this week, while Marcus Bontempelli historically hasn’t produced huge performances against Carlton over the last four seasons.
At double-figure odds, Petracca still shapes as one of the strongest plays in the market.
Back Christian Petracca @ $10 with betr
Lay
This isn’t questioning Lachie Neale’s ability to poll votes, particularly after entering our top-eight for the first time this season.
The concern is Brisbane’s upcoming fixture.
The Lions now face Geelong, GWS at Engie Stadium, Fremantle and Gold Coast across the next month — arguably the toughest stretch of football any AFL team faces.
There’s also the growing presence of Hugh McCluggage as a direct polling competitor in this Brisbane midfield, with his centre bounce numbers steadily increasing.
I struggle to see Neale’s odds shortening dramatically from here.
Back Lachie Neale @ $17 with betr
Value Bet
Harry Sheezel continues to hover around the top-eight of our leaderboard despite still being priced as a major outsider.
There’s enormous boom-or-bust potential here.
The North Melbourne star has already given himself the opportunity to poll in eight of the first nine games this season, even if many of those are likely to be one or two-vote performances.
If he can continue banking minor votes consistently, he’ll remain firmly in the race deep into the season.
Historically, Sheezel has also polled roughly 10% above expectation, highlighted by collecting 15 Brownlow votes in 2024 despite North Melbourne winning only three games.
Back Harry Sheezel @ $51 with betr
The Voting System - Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach
We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances.
The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical.
By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring such as 2.5, 1.5 and 0.5, providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.
This approach still maintains the standard six total votes per match, but introduces greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed.
Ultimately, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and produces a leaderboard that more accurately reflects how games are viewed by fans, analysts and the broader football community.
