Although there’s a short-priced favourite in Nick Daicos, the Brownlow count is extremely tight with 13 players within 3 votes after Round 9.
| Pos | Player | Club | Votes | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| =1 | N. Daicos | Coll | 11.00 | $3.50 |
| =1 | L. Neale | BL | 11.00 | $13 |
| 3 | Z. Butters | PA | 10.75 | $21 |
| 4 | B. Smith | Gee | 10.00 | $10 |
| =5 | M. Gawn | Mel | 9.75 | $101 |
| =5 | I. Rankine | Ade | 9.75 | $41 |
| =7 | Z. Merrett | Ess | 9.50 | $11 |
| =7 | A. Brayshaw | Fre | 9.50 | $18 |
Best Bet
The fact he’s played three fewer games than most of the field and is still just a quarter of a vote behind the leaders highlights how well Zak Butters is performing. At this price it’s hard to ignore.
He ranks 8th in the AFL for disposals per game with 29 but more impressively he’s equal 4th in the competition for contested possessions per game with 14.
A proven vote-getter on Brownlow Night after polling 27 votes in 2023 and storming home with 29 votes to finish third last year I don’t think we’ll see Butters at this price again this season.
Lay
The second favourite doesn’t even crack our top eight and I’m surprised Jordan Dawson is still in single figures.
There are several reasons we’re laying Dawson here. Despite his impact by foot the Crows skipper ranks just 68th in the AFL for contested possessions per game. Add in Izak Rankine’s increased midfield minutes and the likelihood of Dawson spending more time up forward after his showing against the Blues and his case gets weaker.
While we have Dawson in the mix with 8 votes his 13th-place ranking on our leaderboard doesn’t justify the current price.
Value Bet
If not Dawson then who? Izak Rankine may not have the polling history but his increased midfield time has turned him into a genuine Brownlow contender.
Despite splitting time between forward and midfield Rankine ranks 11th in the AFL for contested possessions per game which is one of our key indicators for Brownlow polling.
Among players who have played seven or more games Rankine is one of only four averaging 22+ disposals and 1+ goal per game this season. Scoreboard impact is also a key metric for midfielders and Rankine is excellent value at this price.
