Although Brownlow favourite Nick Daicos has kicked away from the chasing pack, we have a $21 chance as our best bet after Round 20.
|
Pos |
Player |
Club |
Votes |
Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
N. Daicos |
Coll |
26.75 |
$1.75 |
|
2 |
N.Anderson |
GC |
21.25 |
$7.00 |
|
3 |
C.Serong |
Fre |
20.75 |
$21 |
|
4 |
M.Rowell |
GC |
20.00 |
$21 |
|
5 |
Z.Butters |
PA |
19.50 |
$67 |
|
6 |
B.Smith |
Gee |
18.75 |
$12 |
|
7 |
M.Holmes |
Gee |
17.25 |
$101 |
|
=8 |
T.Green |
GWS |
16.75 |
$26 |
|
=8 |
I.Heeney |
Syd |
16.75 |
$151 |
|
=8 |
H.McCluggage |
BL |
16.75 |
$81 |
Best Bet
It might sound ridiculous, but if you’re having a wager after Round 20, I’d rather be on Matt Rowell at $21 than take the $1.75 for Nick Daicos.
The Suns have a game in hand and finish with Richmond, Port Adelaide, Carlton and Essendon - four very winnable games. If Rowell keeps up this form, he could easily pull 10 votes in that stretch.
Daicos is the rightful favourite, coming off a near-perfect game and sitting six votes clear on our tracker. But we saw this script in 2023, and with a month of footy left, $1.75 just doesn’t appeal. This is purely a value play.
Lay
We’re laying Dawson again. I found 0.25 of a vote for him in the Showdown win over Port, but it’s near-certain that Thilthorpe and Soligo take the top two votes.
Even including that, Dawson doesn’t make our top ten. He’s drifted from $4.50 to $5.50, but it’s still wild that he’s rated ahead of players like Noah Anderson and Bailey Smith.
I would be absolutely stunned if Dawson finishes on the podium.
Value
Geelong should win their final four games, and based on their voting pattern this season, expect Holmes, Cameron and Smith to share the spoils.
Holmes is a sneaky chance for a vote in the Cats’ big win over North, which lifts him to seventh on our leaderboard.
We have him polling 13 votes across Geelong’s last nine games. If he picks up another 7 or 8 in the run home, he’s a genuine podium smoky at a massive price.
The Voting System - Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach
We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.
This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.
