While the market has three clear contenders - Smith, Daicos and Dawson - our Brownlow Predictor has the market a lot closer. A new contender has emerged from outside the top-8 into equal second on our leaderboard - and he’s paying $41.
| Pos | Player | Club | Votes | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Smith | Geelong | 15 | $3.75 |
| 2 | Hugh McCluggage | Brisbane | 14.25 | $34 |
| 3 | Noah Anderson | Gold Coast | 14 | $16 |
| 4 | Zak Butters | Port Adelaide | 13.75 | $41 |
| 5 | Nick Daicos | Collingwood | 13.50 | $4.00 |
| =6 | Jordan Dawson | Adelaide | 12.75 | $3.75 |
| =6 | Lachie Neale | Brisbane | 12.75 | $26 |
| 8 | Max Gawn | Melbourne | 12 | $41 |
Best Bet
Assuming the hamstring isn’t as bad as reported, it’s a nice run home for Bailey Smith and the Cats.
With the trailing pack unable to put a dint into the lead while Smith sat out Geelong’s win over the Suns, Smith is likely to return to take on Essendon on the weekend - a team ranked 15th in conceding disposals to their opposition.
After that, Geelong play five of their next seven games at GMHBA Stadium with North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium one of their away games. If he can get on the park and stay on the park, he’s in the box seat.
Lay
Definitely not a ‘cannot win it’ lay - just circumstantial with a better price around the corner for Nick Daicos.
Won’t poll on the weekend after being tagged by Ed Langdon, and now Collingwood enter the bye in Round 14.
On the other side of that, Marcus Windhager will be waiting for Nick Daicos in Round 15 and if the Saint can do a job on the gun midfielder, we could see Daicos’ price double over the next fortnight.
Value
The issue is will the Power win enough games in the back-end of the season, but I’m happy to take this price for Zak Butters to find out.
Another 3 votes on the weekend for Butters, who is a proven poller with 27 votes in 2023 and 29 votes last year.
Butters’ contested possessions are well up in 2025 on what was a career-best last year, ranking him second in the AFL, along with his clearance numbers which also has him top-five in the competition.
The concern is can the Power win enough games? Well they’ve got three winnable games on their home deck the next three weeks against Melbourne, Sydney and Carlton - if he continues these numbers, he’ll be into single figures after Round 16.
The Voting System - Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach
We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.
This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.
