The 2025 Brownlow Medal Count could be one of the closest we’ve seen in an awfully long time, with a $51 shot moving into second place.
| Pos | Player | Club | Votes | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B. Smith | Gee | 11.75 | $5.50 |
| 2 | M. Gawn | Mel | 11.50 | $51 |
| 3 | N. Daicos | Coll | 11.25 | $5.00 |
| 4 | L. Neale | BL | 11.00 | $18 |
| 5 | Z. Butters | PA | 10.75 | $26 |
| 6 | I. Rankine | Ade | 10.00 | $51 |
| 7 | C. Serong | Fre | 9.75 | $21 |
| =8 | A. Brayshaw | Fre | 9.50 | $21 |
| =8 | Z. Merrett | Ess | 9.50 | $15 |
Best Bet
Nick Daicos (Collingwood) – $5.00
Now looks like the perfect time to jump on Nick Daicos. He probably won’t poll from the Crows game despite a solid 28-disposal outing, but he remains right in the mix at the top of the leaderboard after Round 10.
The key is the draw. Four of Collingwood’s next five games are against North Melbourne, Melbourne, St Kilda and West Coast. Even if he gets attention, it’s hard to see them losing any of those.
Daicos is clearly the Pies' top vote-getter. He polled 30 more votes than any teammate last year and should pick up plenty over the next few weeks.
Lay
If you want to back Tom Green for the Brownlow, you’ll get a better price later in the year.
We don’t have him inside our top 20 so far. His numbers are better than last season when he polled 27, but the games he might have polled in have been denominated by teammates.
Toby Greene edges him in Round 1 and Jesse Hogan likely takes top votes in Rounds 4 and 9. Expect his odds to drift.
Value Bet
Caleb Serong (Fremantle) – $21
Serong moves into the top eight on the leaderboard after a dominant 36-disposal performance against the Giants.
He ranks third in the AFL for contested possessions at 14.4 per game and is a proven vote-winner with 24 in 2023 and 28 in 2024.
Fremantle have a great run coming up with four of the next five at home against Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Essendon and St Kilda. Expect wins and big numbers from Serong.
The Voting System
Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach
We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.
This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.
