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array(3) { ["posts"]=> array(8) { [0]=> object(WP_Post)#5791 (24) { ["ID"]=> int(18643) ["post_author"]=> string(2) "17" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2025-05-09 07:13:07" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-05-09 07:13:07" ["post_content"]=> string(2953) "Alright, after a full day streaming AFL 26, here’s the honest truth — it’s definitely a step up from AFL 23, no question. The gameplay feels somewhat smoother, way more physical, and way more rewarding when you get things right.
That said, it’s still rough around the edges. There are bugs (some pretty funny ones, others... not so much), but we’ll get to that.
Gameplay First — And It’s Certainly Improved
The goalkicking is proper hard now. You’ve actually got to focus. No more auto-slotting them from 55m out. You mess up the timing? It’s a shank. You rush it? It’s a shank. But when you nail it from the boundary it genuinely feels like an accomplishment. It adds tension, and I love that.
Marking’s way better too. Pack marks are intense. It’s all about positioning, timing, and a bit of luck. You can’t just spam the mark button anymore and hope for the best. Leading does have its issues with defenders zipping infront of you. But contested grabs, intercept marks — they all feel way more satisfying when timed correctly.
And speaking of improvements, the physical stuff. Jostling, bumping, body-on-body contests — finally, it feels like footy. You can crash into packs, throw your weight around, and actually feel the impact, Players now hit each other in the air and dont phase into each other anymore. It’s not perfect, but it’s way more realistic than what we had last year.
Player Career mode is a much needed inclusion and Management Mode is way more detailed.
Still Got Issues, Though
Now, don’t get it twisted — there are still bugs. Some minor, some game-breaking. During my stream, I ran into a few weird T-Pose animations, some AI doing laps outside the ground, and a couple of crashes when running through the banner.
You can check out all the stuff I found over on my socials — just search GWSharpy and you’ll see the chaos.
The games menus feel clean but the text could be a bit bigger. A main issue is the commentary’s still so flat, and some player models are, let’s just say... unique. But look, compared to AFL 23, it’s clear they’ve listened. It’s not just a patch job — it actually feels like they’re building something better here.
Final Thoughts
At the end of the day, AFL 26 is a proper footy challenge. It’s harder, it’s rougher, and it rewards good play. Is it perfect? Nah. But it’s got the bones of a great game — and with a few more updates, it could be the footy game we’ve all been waiting for.
If you’re a diehard fan or just keen to see how it stacks up, give it a crack. Just be ready for a few glitches and don’t expect perfection straight out of the box.
7.5/10
For all my gameplay, thoughts, and bug clips — hit up my socials at GWSharpy.
" ["post_title"]=> string(57) "Honest AFL 26 Review: The Game AFL Fans Deserve? Finally?" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_status"]=> string(7) "publish" ["comment_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(54) "honest-afl-26-review-the-game-afl-fans-deserve-finally" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2025-05-10 05:46:25" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-05-10 05:46:25" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(0) ["guid"]=> string(58) "https://bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net/?p=18643" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["post_mime_type"]=> string(0) "" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" } [1]=> object(WP_Post)#5757 (24) { ["ID"]=> int(18621) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "9" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2025-05-07 22:44:03" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-05-07 22:44:03" ["post_content"]=> string(19151) "2025 AFL Round 9 Betting Predictions
The Showdown is the highlight of Round 9 as the Power take on the Crows this Saturday night. But the round will start with the Dockers looking to respond against the Pies on Thursday night in Perth.
Fremantle (9th) vs Collingwood (2nd)
The Dockers head into their clash with the Magpies, sitting at 4-4 for the season and just outside the top 8 in 9th spot. They’ve shown some promise, but consistency has been an issue, especially after a rough 94-33 loss to the Saints at Docklands last round. Jye Amiss was one of the few bright spots, kicking 2 goals in that game. At home, they’ve been solid with a 2-1 record, but things get shaky on the road with a 2-3 split. The Dockers’ biggest concerns are around the contest - they rank 16th in the league for clearances and 15th for disposals. With a 3-2 record in their last five and currently on a one-game skid, they’ll need to tidy up the basics if they’re going to bounce back against a strong Magpies side.
The Magpies are coming off a narrow 3-point loss to the Cats at the MCG, but overall they’ve been in great form, winning four of their last five. Mihocek was a standout last game, booting 4 goals. At home, they’ve been tough to beat with a 4-1 record, and they've been solid on the road too at 2-1. Stat-wise, the Pies are a force - they rank top 5 in the AFL for clearances, inside 50s, and tackles. Despite the recent loss, they’ve been one of the most consistent teams this season and will be looking to bounce back strongly against a Dockers side that's been up and down.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. Collingwood are 3-1 (1 draw) in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Magpies are 3-1 (1 draw) against the Dockers in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
A real shocker by Freo last week but they are better at home, so there's some hope. But I don't think their forward line will be able to kick enough pts against the Pies defence.
Same Game Multi
It's hard to have any confidence in the Dockers, so I like the Pies to cover in Perth. They're 4-0 ATS when they face Freo and should be the better side on the day. Nick Daicos is finding the goals at the moment, he's kicked a goal in his last 3 games. I think he offers nice value to kick a goal on Thursday night.
Under 160.5 pts / Collingwood +2.5 / Nick Daicos Anytime Goalscorer = $5.60
St Kilda (10th) vs Carlton (13th)
The Saints are coming off a massive 61-point win over Fremantle at Docklands, where they slammed through 14 goals and looked sharp all around. Jack Macrae racked up 38 disposals and Cam Sharman chipped in with 4 goals in a dominant showing. They’re now sitting at 4-4 on the season and sit just outside the top 8 in 10th spot. At home, they’ve held their own with a 3-2 record, while away from home, they’ve been a bit patchier at 1-2. Over their last five, they’ve gone 2-3, but they’re riding a bit of momentum now with that solid win. One of their key strengths is tackling - they’re ranked 5th in the league in that department. With the Blues up next, the Saints will be hoping to keep that pressure game going and climb back into finals contention.
The Blues head into their clash with the Saints sitting 13th on the ladder with a 3-5 record and looking to bounce back after a rough 60-point loss to the Crows at Adelaide Oval. They’ve gone 3-2 over their last five but are currently on a one-game losing streak. At home, they’ve been decent with a 2-2 record, but their away form hasn’t been great, sitting at 1-3. Despite their spot on the ladder, the Blues actually stack up well in a few key areas - they’re ranked 1st in the AFL for tackling, and 3rd for both clearances and inside 50s. If they can tidy up their execution and bring that pressure game, they’ve got a real shot at bouncing back against the Saints.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 7-8 at this venue since 2018. Carlton are 5-5 in their last 10 games at MCG.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Saints are 6-3 against the Blues.
Best Bet
A great win by the Saints last week and the Blues are wildly inconsistent. They're also just 1-5 ATS at the MCG.
Melbourne (15th) vs Hawthorn (3rd)
The Demons are starting to find some form after a slow start, coming into this clash with the Hawks on a 3-game winning streak. They’re 3-5 on the season and sitting 15th on the ladder, but their recent 32-point win over the Eagles in Perth - where they booted 16 goals - shows they’re building momentum. Max Gawn was huge last round with 35 disposals, and Daniel Turner chipped in with 3 goals. That said, there are still areas they need to fix - Melbourne ranks 14th in clearances and tackles, and 16th for goals kicked. Their home record is 2-3, and away it's 1-2, so consistency has been an issue. Still, with confidence growing, the Dees will be looking to keep the streak alive against a Hawks outfit they’ll feel they can match up well against.
The Hawks are flying high at the moment, sitting 3rd on the ladder with a 6-2 record and coming off a dominant 65-point win over Richmond at the MCG, where they kicked 16 goals. Gunston and Watson both nailed 3 goals each, while Josh Battle racked up an impressive 33 disposals. They’ve now won two in a row and are 3-2 across their last five games. At home, they’re a perfect 4-0, and they’ve held their own on the road too with a 2-2 record. Statistically, the Hawks are one of the top sides in the comp - ranked 4th for both disposals and goals, and 3rd for tackling. With their current form and a strong all-round game, they’ll head into the clash with the Demons full of confidence.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Hawthorn are 9-1 in their last 10 games at MCG.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Demons hold an 8-1 (1 draw) record against the Hawks.
Best Bet
The Hawks are 9-1 ATS at the MCG and I think they'll handle the Dees, who may struggle after a Perth trip.
Essendon (11th) vs Sydney Swans (14th)
The Bombers are coming off a tight 3-point win over North Melbourne at Docklands, where they kicked 9 goals. Zach Merrett was in great form, collecting 35 disposals, while Archie Perkins added 3 goals to the tally. Sitting 11th on the ladder with a 4-3 record, the Bombers have been solid, especially in their last five games where they’ve gone 4-1. They’ve been strong in disposals, ranked 2nd in the AFL, but they’ve struggled with their goal-kicking, ranking 15th, and aren’t getting enough inside 50 entries, also sitting 15th in that area. On the road, they’re unbeaten with a 2-2 record, and at home, they’re 2-1. With a winning streak on the line, the Bombers will be looking to shore up their weaknesses and keep the momentum going against the Swans.
The Swans are looking to build on their 14-point win over the GWS Giants at the SCG, where they kicked 12 goals. James Jordan was a standout, kicking 2 goals in that victory. Sitting 14th on the ladder with a 3-5 record, they’ve been a bit inconsistent this season, but they’re coming off a win and will be hoping to keep the momentum going. Their away form has been decent, with a 2-2 record, but at home they’ve struggled with a 1-3 record. The Swans have had trouble in some key areas, ranking 14th in clearances and 16th in tackling, which has held them back. With just 3 wins on the board, they’ll need to tighten up those areas if they want to climb up the ladder and challenge the Bombers in this matchup.
Stadium Record
Essendon are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Marvel. Sydney are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Swans are 7-3 against the Bombers.
Best Bet
The Bombers only kicked 60 odd pts last week and Sydney's forward line hasn't been great over the last few weeks. So I like the Under, which is 4-1 in the Bombers last 5 games.
Gold Coast Suns (4th) vs Western Bulldogs (6th)
The Suns have had a strong season so far, sitting 4th on the ladder with a 5-2 record. They’re coming off a tough loss to the Lions at the Gabba, where they went down 66-49, but they’ve been solid on the road with a 3-2 record. Touk Miller led the way last game with 29 disposals, but the Suns will be looking to bounce back after that setback. They’ve been one of the best teams for kicking goals, ranked 2nd in the AFL, and they’re also top of the table for inside 50 entries. However, they’ve struggled with disposals, ranking 14th in the league, so that’s an area they’ll need to improve on. At home, they’ve been perfect so far, with a 2-0 record, and with their strong attacking game, they'll be confident heading into the matchup with the Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs are on a roll with a 3-game winning streak, including a massive 90-point victory over Port Adelaide in their last match, where they kicked 20 goals. Their recent form has been impressive, going 3-2 in the last five games and sitting 6th on the ladder with a 5-3 record. They’ve been dominant in several key areas, ranking 2nd in the AFL for clearances, goals kicked, and inside 50 entries, and 3rd for disposals. However, tackling has been a weak spot for them, sitting 17th in the league. At home, they’ve been solid with a 3-2 record, and they’re also unbeaten on the road with a 2-1 record. With their strong midfield and attack, the Bulldogs will be confident as they take on the Suns.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 6-1 at this venue since 2018. The Bulldogs are 0-1 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Bulldogs have won 4 games against the Suns.
Best Bet
The Suns have an impressive record at TIO but the Dogs are in super form. So I like the Over, which is 4-0 at this venue when the Suns are playing here.
Port Adelaide (12th) vs Adelaide Crows (5th)
The Power have had a mixed season so far, sitting in 12th place on the ladder with a 4-4 record. They’re coming off a heavy loss to the Bulldogs at Ballarat, where they were beaten 131-41. Despite struggling to kick goals, ranking 14th in the AFL in that area, they’ve had a solid home record with 3 wins and 1 draw. However, their away form has been shaky, managing just 1 win and 3 losses. In their last game, Willie Rioli kicked 2 goals, but the Power will need to improve in attack if they want to turn their season around. With a 3-2 record in their last five games, they’ll be looking to bounce back and get back to winning ways.
The Crows are sitting pretty in 5th place on the ladder with a 5-3 record, coming off a dominant 60-point win over Carlton at Adelaide Oval, where they kicked 16 goals. They’ve been strong at home, with a 4-1 record, but their away form has been a bit shaky, going 1-2. In their last five games, they’ve gone 2-3. Key players like Rankine, with 29 disposals, and Dawson, who kicked 3 goals in their last game, have been crucial to their success. The Crows are ranked 1st in the AFL for goals kicked and 5th for both clearances and disposals, making them a tough team to beat. With their current form and strong stats, they’ll be aiming to extend their winning streak.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Adelaide are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Power hold a 6-4 record against the Crows.
Best Bet
In the showdown, the home team is 8-1 ATS and that works in the Power's favour. Expect a response from the Power after last week's woeful performance.
Richmond (16th) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)
The Tigers are struggling this season, sitting in 16th place with a 2-6 record, and they've dropped their last two games. In their most recent match, they lost to the Hawks by a hefty margin, 109 to 44, at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. Their away form is particularly concerning, having lost all four away games so far. The Tigers have a number of weaknesses, including ranking 17th in clearances, disposals, and goals kicked, and dead last in inside 50 entries and tackling. With only two wins under their belt this season, they’ll need a major turnaround to get back on track.
The Eagles are in a tough spot, sitting at the bottom of the ladder with a 0-8 record, and they’re currently on an 8-game losing streak. They’re still looking for their first win of the season and have struggled across the board, ranking 18th in clearances, disposals, and goals kicked. They also sit near the bottom for inside 50 entries and tackling. Their most recent loss came against the Demons, where they were beaten by 32 points at Perth Stadium. The Eagles have yet to pick up a win at home or on the road this season, with an 0-4 record in both categories. It’s been a challenging start to the season for the Eagles, and they’ll need a significant improvement to turn things around.
Stadium Record
In their last 5 games at MCG, Richmond holds a 1-4 record. West Coast are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 4-1 against the Eagles in the last 5.
Best Bet
Both sides are struggling so I think kicking goals will be tough and the Under is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 games.
Geelong Cats (7th) vs GWS Giants (8th)
The Cats have had a solid start to the season with a 5-3 record and are currently sitting 7th on the ladder. They’re coming off a narrow 3-point win over Collingwood in Round 8, where they kicked 13 goals at the MCG. While they’ve been strong in certain areas, ranking 1st for tackling and 4th for goals kicked, they’ve struggled a bit with disposals and inside 50 entries. The Cats have been good at home, with a perfect 3-0 record, but they’ve faced more challenges on the road, with a 2-3 record in away games. They’ll be looking to build on their recent win and continue improving as the season progresses.
The Giants are sitting in 8th place on the ladder with a 4-4 record for the season. They’re coming off a tough loss to the Swans at the Sydney Cricket Ground, where they went down by 14 points. They’ve been solid in some areas, particularly disposals, where they’re ranked 1st in the AFL. However, they’ve struggled with consistency lately, with a 2-3 record in their last five games and a 3-game losing streak. At home, they’ve been decent with a 2-1 record, but their away form has been more challenging, sitting at 2-3. Tom Green has been a standout with 34 disposals last game, and Stringer contributed 3 goals. The Giants will need to bounce back and find some form as they face the Cats next.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 4-1 in their last 5 games at Kardinia Park. GWS are 4-1 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Giants are 5-3 against the Cats since 2018.
Best Bet
GWS are struggling at the moment but they actually love playing here, they've covered in their last 4. Geelong could be a bit flat after a huge win on Saturday night too.
Greater Western Sydney +16.5 = $1.90
North Melbourne (17th) vs Brisbane Lions (1st)
The Kangaroos are having a tough season, sitting at 1-7, with their only win coming early on. They’re currently on a six-game losing streak and haven’t been able to grab a win in their last five outings. In their most recent match at Docklands, they lost by just 3 points to the Bombers, finishing 65 to 62. Sheezel had a solid performance with 32 disposals, and Larkey kicked 2 goals, but the Kangaroos are struggling with inside 50 entries, ranking 16th in the AFL in that area. Their home record isn’t much better at 1-3, and they’ve yet to pick up a win away from home, with a 0-4 record. They’ll need to turn things around quickly if they’re to challenge the Lions next.
The Lions are absolutely flying this season, sitting at the top of the ladder with a 7-1 record. They’re on a two-game winning streak and have been dominating at home, boasting a 3-1 record at the Gabba. In their latest win over the Gold Coast Suns, they came out on top by 17 points, kicking 9 goals. Will Ashcroft had a standout performance with 34 disposals, while Cameron and Ah Chee each kicked 3 goals. The Lions are excelling in clearances, ranking 1st in the AFL, and their inside 50 entries are also impressive, sitting 4th. They’ve been perfect on the road so far with a 4-0 away record, and they’ll be confident heading into their next match against the struggling Kangaroos.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue. Brisbane are yet to play here.
Head to Head Record
The Lions are 6-2 against the Kangaroos since 2018.
Best Bet
A 6 goal line is about right and I think with the Roos defensive issues, the Lions should be able to kick away in the end.
" ["post_title"]=> string(29) "2025 AFL Round 9 Betting Tips" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_status"]=> string(7) "publish" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(29) "2025-afl-round-9-betting-tips" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2025-05-07 22:44:03" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-05-07 22:44:03" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(0) ["guid"]=> string(58) "https://bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net/?p=18621" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["post_mime_type"]=> string(0) "" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" } [2]=> object(WP_Post)#5818 (24) { ["ID"]=> int(18604) ["post_author"]=> string(2) "15" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2025-05-03 23:10:02" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-05-03 23:10:02" ["post_content"]=> string(1062) "Free kick Hawthorn!
The Hawks are flying high on the AFL Free Kick Ladder, leading the comp after eight rounds plus Opening Round in 2025.
Home ground advantage hasn’t done much for the non-Victorian clubs. Port, West Coast, Freo, Adelaide, GWS and Sydney all sit in the bottom eight for free kicks.
Free kicks don’t need to be even, but getting the rub of the green can make all the difference in a close one.
Here’s how the ladder looks:
- Hawthorn (+58)
- Carlton (+33)
- Gold Coast (+32)
- Brisbane Lions (+23)
- Essendon (+20)
- Western Bulldogs (+16)
- Melbourne (+15)
- Collingwood (-2)
- Geelong (-3)
- St Kilda (-3)
- Sydney (-4)
- GWS Giants (-7)
- Adelaide (-14)
- Richmond (-21)
- Fremantle (-22)
- North Melbourne (-38)
- West Coast (-40)
- Port Adelaide (-43)
Round 8 begins at Marvel with the Bombers and Roos looking to keep their top 8 hopes alive. But the game of the round waits until last as the Lions battle the Suns in a huge top 4 Q-Clash. Here is a preview of every game this week.
Essendon (12th) vs North Melbourne (17th)
The Bombers are coming off a tough 107-66 loss to the Magpies at the MCG, and they'll be looking to bounce back this week against the Kangaroos. They're sitting 12th on the ladder with a 3-3 record, including a 1-0-1 split at home and 2-0-2 on the road. Recent form shows they're a bit up and down, going 3-0-2 in their last five and currently on a one-game losing streak. Peter Wright chipped in with 2 goals last game, while Zach Merrett was busy with 25 disposals. Stat-wise, the Bombers are one of the top teams for disposals, ranked 2nd in the comp, but they've been struggling when it comes to converting inside 50s and hitting the scoreboard, sitting 14th for goals and 15th for inside 50 entries. They've shown they can win, but they'll need to clean up those forward entries to make a real push up the ladder.
The Kangaroos have had a rough run lately, dropping their last five games and sitting 17th on the ladder with a 1-6 record. Their only win this season came at home, where they're 1-0-3, while they've gone winless on the road at 0-0-3. Last week, they put up a decent fight but still went down 97-88 to the Power at Adelaide Oval. Harry Sheezel led the way with 30 disposals, and Curtis kicked 3 goals, though he'll miss the next few weeks due to suspension. The Roos do rank 4th in the league for disposals, so they can get plenty of the ball, but their biggest issue has been getting it inside 50, where they rank 16th. They'll need to fix that quickly if they want to avoid another long season.
Stadium Record
Essendon are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Marvel. North Melbourne are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Bombers are 10-0 against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
The Roos are giving up 17 goals per game and the Bombers aren't much better at 14. So I like the Over, which is 7-1 in the Roos last 8 games.
Same Game Multi
The Bombers are 11-0 against the Roos so I don't see the trend changing with the Kangaroos defensive issues. Archie Perkins has kicked a goal in 4 of his last 5 games and offers a safe bet for this sgm.
Over 183.5 / Bombers -16.5 / Archie Perkins to kick a goal = $3.80
St Kilda (13th) vs Fremantle (9th)
The Saints have hit a bit of a slump, dropping their last three games and now sitting 13th on the ladder with a 3-4 record. Their most recent outing was a tough 45-point loss to the Lions at Docklands. Despite the result, Jack Higgins managed to snag 3 goals, and Bradley Hill was everywhere with 33 disposals. At home they're 2-0-2, while away they've gone 1-0-2. Over the last five games, they've gone 2-0-3, showing some flashes but struggling to string wins together. One area they need to clean up is their inside 50s, they rank 14th in that department. If they can sharpen up their forward entries, they've got the talent to bounce back against the Dockers.
The Dockers are tracking along nicely with a 4-3 record and sit just outside the top eight in 9th spot. They're coming off a solid 18-point win over the Crows at Perth Stadium, slotting 12 goals in the process. Andrew Brayshaw was massive with 37 disposals, and Serong wasn't far behind with 32 touches. Over their last five, they've gone 4-0-1 and are currently on a one-game winning streak. They've been fairly balanced home and away, going 2-0-1 at home and 2-0-2 on the road. While they've struggled with disposals and tackling, ranking 15th in both, they've still found a way to get wins on the board and will be looking to keep that momentum going against the Saints.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. Fremantle are 5-4 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at Marvel.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Saints hold a 3-2 record against the Dockers.
Best Bet
The Saints don't like Friday night footy, they've lost their last 6. Freo heads to Melbourne with a decent record at Marvel and holds a 4-1 ATS record in their last 5. I think they win it by a goal or two.
Western Bulldogs (8th) vs Port Adelaide (10th)
The Bulldogs are starting to build some momentum, coming off a strong 32-point win over the Giants in Round 7 where they slammed home 17 goals at Manuka Oval. James Harmes was a standout up forward with 4 goals, while Liberatore did the grunt work with 28 disposals. They've now won two on the trot and sit inside the top eight with a 4-3 record. They've gone 2-0-1 away from home and 2-0-2 at home. Over their last five games, they're 3-0-2, showing they're starting to click. The Dogs are one of the best in the comp for clearances, goals kicked, and inside 50s, all ranked 3rd, so they've got the firepower. Tackling remains a weak point, ranking 17th, but if they keep dominating in those key attacking stats, they'll be hard to stop against the Power.
The Power are starting to find some rhythm, coming into this clash with the Bulldogs on a three-game winning streak and a 4-3 record that's got them sitting 10th on the ladder. Last round they got the job done against North Melbourne at Adelaide Oval, winning by 9 points and kicking 14 goals, with Byrne-Jones chipping in with 3 majors. At home they've been solid with a 3-0-1 record, though they've been a bit shakier on the road at 1-0-2. Over their last five, they've gone 3-0-2, showing some consistency lately. They'll need to bring that same energy against a Bulldogs side that's also hitting form, but with momentum on their side, the Power should be right in the mix.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs are 9-3 at this venue since 2018. Port Adelaide are 1-0 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Power are 4-1 against the Bulldogs in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
This one is being played in Ballarat which is a tough place to score, so I think this will be a close one. The Power also have a 4-0 record against the Dogs.
Adelaide Crows (5th) vs Carlton (11th)
The Crows are sitting nicely in 5th spot with a 4-3 record, but they'll be looking to bounce back this week after going down to the Dockers by 18 points at Perth Stadium. Thilthorpe continued his solid form up forward with 3 goals, taking his season tally to 19. They've been strong at home with a 3-0-1 record and are 1-0-2 on the road. Over their last five games, they've gone 2-0-3 and are currently on a one-game losing streak. Offensively, they're firing, ranked 2nd in the AFL for goals kicked, and they bring plenty of pressure too, sitting 4th for tackles. If they can tidy up their consistency, they'll be a real threat against the Blues.
The Blues are starting to hit their stride, coming off three straight wins and sitting just outside the top eight in 11th with a 3-4 record. Last week they knocked off the Cats at the MCG by 18 points, booting 14 goals, with Curnow and McKay both slotting three each, while Sam Walsh racked up 30 disposals. They've gone 3-0-2 in their last five and are 2-0-2 at home and 1-0-2 on the road. Stat-wise, the Blues are elite in a few key areas, ranked 1st for tackles, 2nd for clearances and inside 50s, and 3rd for disposals. With that kind of midfield power and forward firepower, they'll fancy their chances against the Crows this week.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Carlton are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Crows hold a 3-2 record against the Blues.
Best Bet
Carlton have got their forward line firing and come off a huge win over the Cats. I think they keep this margin under 2 goals and potentially get another win.
Collingwood (1st) vs Geelong Cats (7th)
The Magpies are flying right now, sitting on top of the ladder with a 6-1 record and riding a six-game winning streak. They were dominant last round, smashing Essendon by 41 points at the MCG and slotting 16 goals. Jamie Elliott made his 200th game one to remember with 5 goals, while Josh Daicos was everywhere with 36 disposals. They've been unbeatable at home and solid on the road, and their form over the last five games, 5 straight wins, speaks for itself. Stat-wise, they're ranked 5th in the league for clearances, inside 50s, and tackles, showing they bring both pressure and class. Up against the Cats, they'll be full of confidence and hard to stop.
The Cats come into this clash sitting 7th on the ladder with a 4-3 record, but they'll be keen to bounce back after a 94–76 loss to the Blues at the MCG last round. Jeremy Cameron was a standout with 4 goals, keeping his goal-kicking form ticking along nicely. They've been perfect at home, but haven't had the same success on the road, going 1-0-3 away. Over their last five, they've gone 3-0-2 and are currently on a one-game skid. Offensively, they've been strong, ranked 4th in the AFL for goals, and they bring the heat with tackles too, sitting 3rd in that stat. But their ball movement needs work, as they rank 16th for disposals. Up against the top-of-the-table Pies, they'll need to tidy that up to stay in the contest.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 8-2 in their last 10 games at MCG. Geelong are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Cats have won 6 games against the Magpies.
Best Bet
This should be a tough matchup at the MCG and I like the Under trend with the Cats, it's 4-1 in their last 5 games.
West Coast Eagles (18th) vs Melbourne (15th)
The Eagles are having a tough season, still searching for their first win with a 0-7 record and sitting at the bottom of the ladder in 18th place. They were well beaten by the Hawks at Docklands last round, losing by 50 points, despite Liam Ryan's 3 goals and Ryan Maric's 25 disposals. They've now lost seven in a row and have yet to register a win at either home or away. The stats aren't looking pretty either, as they're ranked 18th in the AFL for clearances, disposals, and goals kicked, and 17th for inside 50 entries. They're also struggling with tackling, sitting 14th in that area. Against a strong Demons side, it's hard to see the Eagles turning things around unless they can find a major lift across the board.
The Demons are coming off a solid 20-point win over Richmond at the MCG, kicking 12 goals in the process, and they're starting to find some form with two straight wins. Petracca added 2 goals to his tally, while Christian Salem racked up 34 disposals. However, they've had their struggles this season, sitting 15th on the ladder with a 2-5 record. Their main issues have been in clearances and goal kicking, though they've excelled in disposals, ranking 5th in the league. They're still looking for their first win on the road with a 0-0-2 record away from home, while they've been decent at home. The Eagles will likely be an easy target for the Demons, who are hoping to build on their recent form and put together a run of wins.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 1-9 in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. Melbourne are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Demons are 4-1 against the Eagles in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Dees like this venue, highlighted by their premiership win in 2021. So I think they comfortably beat the struggling Eagles.
Sydney Swans (14th) vs GWS Giants (6th)
The Swans are struggling this season, sitting 14th on the ladder with a 2-5 record and currently on a three-game losing streak. They were beaten by the Suns at Carrara last round, losing 117–79, despite Chad Warner's 2 goals and 24 disposals. Their biggest weaknesses are in goal-kicking, where they're ranked 14th in the AFL, and tackling, sitting 15th in the league. On a positive note, they've been decent away from home with a 2-0-2 record, but they've yet to secure a win at home. With only two wins for the season and some issues to fix, they'll need a big performance against the Giants to turn things around.
The Giants are sitting comfortably in 6th on the ladder with a 4-3 record, though they've hit a bit of a rough patch, losing their last two games. They were beaten by the Bulldogs by 32 points at Manuka Oval, despite Toby Greene's 2 goals and 8 clearances. The Giants have been impressive in disposals, ranking 1st in the AFL in that area, but they do struggle with clearances, sitting 15th in the league. Their home record is solid, and they've been just as good on the road with a 2-0-2 record. The Giants will be looking to bounce back against the Swans after their recent losses and get back on track for a finals push.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at the Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney holds a 5-5 record. GWS are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Swans hold a 7-3 record.
Best Bet
Both sides are coming off a few losses so the Sydney derby should be hotly contested. Ultimately, the Over is 4-1 in this matchup and the small SCG should be nice for scoring.
Hawthorn (4th) vs Richmond (16th)
The Hawks are in great form, sitting 4th on the ladder with a 5-2 record. They won their last game against the Eagles by a massive 50 points at Docklands, kicking 18 goals. The team has been strong across the board, especially in goals kicked and tackling. Jack Gunston was a standout last game with 4 goals, while Josh Battle racked up 29 disposals. Their away record is solid, and they've been perfect at home with a 3-0-0 record. The Hawks will be looking to extend their winning streak and keep pushing for a top spot as they face the Tigers next.
The Tigers have had a tough start to the season, sitting in 16th on the ladder with a 2-5 record. They're coming off a loss to the Demons at the MCG, where they went down 83-63. Despite a strong performance from Tom Lynch, who kicked 3 goals, the Tigers have been struggling across the board. They rank poorly in clearances , disposals , goals kicked , and tackling . Their away record is still winless at 0-0-3, and their last 5 games have seen them win just one. With plenty of work to do, they'll need to improve in these areas if they want to turn things around against the Hawks.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Hawthorn holds an 8-2 record. Richmond are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Tigers have won 3 games against the Hawks.
Best Bet
This should be another percentage booster for the Hawks, they're 8-1 ATS at the MCG and the Tigers haven't played well at this venue of late.
Brisbane Lions (2nd) vs Gold Coast Suns (3rd)
The Lions are in great form this season, sitting 2nd on the ladder with a 6-1 record. They're coming off a strong 45-point win over St Kilda, where they kicked 17 goals at Docklands. The Lions are dominating in a few key areas, ranking 1st in clearances, 5th in goals kicked, and 3rd for inside 50 entries. Their away record is perfect so far at 4-0-0, while they've been solid at home with a 2-0-1 record. Will Ashcroft has been a standout with 35 disposals last game, and Eric Hipwood kicked 4 goals. With a 4-0-1 record in their last 5, the Lions are looking like strong contenders this season.
The Suns have been in red-hot form this season, sitting 3rd on the ladder with a 5-1 record. They're coming off a solid 38-point win over the Swans at Carrara, where they kicked 17 goals. The Suns have been dominating in key areas, ranked 1st in the AFL for both goals kicked and inside 50 entries, and 4th for clearances. They've been impressive on the road with a 3-0-1 record and are also undefeated at home with a 2-0-0 record. Ben King was on fire last game with 5 goals, and Noble had 30 disposals. Despite ranking 14th in disposals, the Suns are still a force to be reckoned with, especially with their strong attack and clearance game.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at the Gabba, Brisbane holds an 8-2 record. Gold Coast are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Lions hold a 9-1 record.
Best Bet
The Q Clash should be the match of the round and I think the Suns can give the Lions a big scare. The Suns are 6-0 ATS when they face a reigning premier and they're playing impressive footy at the moment.
" ["post_title"]=> string(29) "2025 AFL Round 8 Betting Tips" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_status"]=> string(7) "publish" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(29) "2025-afl-round-8-betting-tips" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2025-04-30 09:13:32" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-04-30 09:13:32" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(0) ["guid"]=> string(58) "https://bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net/?p=18564" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["post_mime_type"]=> string(0) "" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" } [4]=> object(WP_Post)#5744 (24) { ["ID"]=> int(18511) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "9" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2025-04-23 23:32:00" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-04-23 23:32:00" ["post_content"]=> string(18164) "ANZAC Day is the highlight of Round 7 as the Pies and Bombers renew their rivalry at the MCG on Friday afternoon.
Melbourne (17th) vs Richmond (15th)
The Demons are coming off a solid 10-point win over Fremantle at the MCG, where they slotted 16 goals, including a standout 5-goal performance from Kossy Pickett. That victory snapped a rough run, with the team now on a one-game winning streak after losing their previous four. It's been a tough season overall, sitting 17th on the ladder with a 1-5 record. They haven't managed a win in away games yet (0-0-2), and their home form hasn't been much better at 1-0-3. The Demons have had real issues with clearances, goal-kicking, and tackling — ranking near the bottom of the league in all three areas. They'll be looking to build some momentum this week against the Tigers.
The Tigers are coming off an 11-point win over the Suns at Docklands, where they put through 12 goals. Tim Taranto was everywhere with 35 touches, leading the way in a much-needed win that snapped a four-game losing streak. They're now sitting 15th on the ladder with a 2-4 record, and while they've managed a couple of wins at home (2-0-2), they're still winless on the road (0-0-2). Like their opponents this week, the Tigers have had plenty of struggles — ranked near the bottom of the league for clearances, disposals, goals kicked, inside 50s, and tackles. They'll need to tidy up across the board if they want to keep the wins coming against the Demons.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 4-6 in their last 10 games at MCG. Richmond are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Demons hold a 5-0 record against the Tigers.
Best Bet
Both sides are coming off a win but scoring hasn't been easy for either team, so I like the Under trend in this matchup at night, the Under is 8-0.
Collingwood (1st) vs Essendon (11th)
The Magpies are flying right now, sitting on top of the ladder after a dominant 52-point win over the Lions at the Gabba, where they booted 16 goals. Nick Daicos was everywhere with 38 disposals, while Daniel McStay chipped in with 3 goals. That win made it five on the trot for the Pies, who now boast a 5-1 record overall. They've been perfect at home (3-0) and solid on the road too (2-0-1). They're one of the best in the league when it comes to inside 50s and tackling — ranked 5th in both categories — so they're bringing the pressure and getting plenty of looks up forward. They'll head into their clash with the Bombers full of confidence.
The Bombers are quietly building some momentum, now on a three-game winning streak after just edging out the Eagles by 2 points in Perth, where they kicked 11 goals. Peter Wright was a standout up forward with 6 majors, while Zac Merrett and Nic Martin both racked up 26 disposals. They're sitting 11th on the ladder with a 3-2 record, and have been solid both home (1-0-1) and away (2-0-1). Stat-wise, they're elite when it comes to clearances (ranked 5th) and lead the league in disposals, but they've struggled to make it count on the scoreboard and going inside 50, ranked 14th in both categories. Facing the top-of-the-table Magpies, they'll need to clean up those forward entries to stay competitive.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 7-3 in their last 10 games at MCG. Essendon are 4-5 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Magpies hold a 5-4 (1 draw) record against the Bombers.
Best Bet
Should be a cracker on Friday as both sides are playing good footy and hopefully, it will be high scoring as the Bombers are 5-0 against the Over in day games at the MCG.
Same Game Multi
It's usually a close contest in this matchup as the margin has fallen under 15 pts in 5 of the last 6 meetings. So I like the Bombers to cover.
Over 159.5 / Essendon +25.5 = $3.40
Fremantle (9th) vs Adelaide Crows (5th)
The Dockers are sitting just outside the top eight in 9th with a 3-3 record after going down to the Demons by 10 points at the MCG last round. Andy Brayshaw was a standout with 33 touches, but it wasn't quite enough to get them over the line. They've been a bit up and down, splitting their last five games 3-2, and their home (1-0-1) and away (2-0-2) form has been fairly balanced. The Dockers have had some issues around the contest, struggling with clearances, disposals, and tackles, all ranking in the bottom half of the league. That said, they've been efficient when they do get forward, sitting 5th in the comp for goals kicked. They'll be looking to bounce back this week against the Crows.
The Crows are sitting nicely in 5th spot with a 4-2 record and are coming off an 18-point win over the Giants at Adelaide Oval, where they kicked 7 goals. Taylor Walker chipped in with 2 majors in that one, and the team is now on a one-game winning streak. They've been strong at home (3-0-1) and solid on the road (1-0-1), and the stats back up their form — ranked top three in the league for clearances, disposals, and inside 50s, plus they're leading the comp for goals kicked. It's clear they know how to move the footy and make it count. Heading into their clash with the Dockers, the Crows are looking like one of the more well-rounded sides in the comp.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 6-3 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. Adelaide are 2-4 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Dockers are 4-1 against the Crows in the last 5.
Best Bet
The Crows were at their defensive best last week and hopefully, they bring that to WA. Freo are 8-1 against the Under in Friday night games so I'm going with the trend.
St Kilda (12th) vs Brisbane Lions (2nd)
The Saints have hit a bit of a rough patch, coming off back-to-back losses, including a heavy 71-point defeat to the Bulldogs at Docklands where they only managed 56 points. Higgins and Owens were the bright spots, each kicking 3 goals, but it was a tough day overall. They're now sitting 12th on the ladder with a 3-3 record. At home, they've been decent (2-0-1), but away from home it's been a mixed bag (1-0-2). One area that's been letting them down is their inside 50 count — they're ranked 15th in the league, which shows they're struggling to generate enough scoring opportunities. They'll need to lift across the board to challenge the Lions this week.
The Lions are sitting pretty in 2nd spot on the ladder with a 5-1 record, despite a tough 52-point loss to the Magpies at the Gabba last round. Hipwood snagged a couple of goals and Lachie Neale gathered 25 touches, but it just wasn't their day. That snapped a four-game winning streak, but overall, they've been impressive this season — especially on the road where they're unbeaten (3-0). They're ranked 2nd in the comp for clearances and 5th for goals kicked, so they're strong around the contest and know how to hit the scoreboard. Back at it this week against the Saints, the Lions will be keen to bounce straight back.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Marvel. Brisbane are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Lions are 8-2 against the Saints since 2018.
Best Bet
Good conditions under the roof should see a free-flowing game and the Over is now 5-1 in the Saints last 6.
Port Adelaide (10th) vs North Melbourne (16th)
The Power are starting to find a bit of form, now on a two-game winning streak after knocking off the Swans by 8 points at the SCG, where they slotted 13 goals. Rioli and Georgiades both chipped in with 3 majors each, helping lift them to a 3-3 record for the season. They're currently sitting 10th on the ladder and have looked solid at home (2-0-1), while their away form has been a bit patchy (1-0-2). Stat-wise, they're strong with the footy in hand — ranked 5th in disposals — but they've had some issues at the contest, sitting low in both clearances and tackles. Up against the Kangaroos this week, the Power will be looking to keep the momentum going.
The Kangaroos are doing it tough right now, sitting 16th on the ladder with just one win from six games and coming off a brutal 82-point loss to the Blues at Docklands. Harry Sheezel was one of the few bright spots with 32 touches, and Luke Parker chipped in with 2 goals and will celebrate his 300th game this week. They're on a four-game losing streak and haven't won away from home yet (0-0-2). While they're ranked 4th in the league for disposals, they're really struggling to make it count on the scoreboard, especially with inside 50 entries where they sit 16th. Up against the Power, the Roos will need a massive lift to turn things around.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. North Melbourne are 0-7 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Power hold a 5-0 record against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
The Roos are giving up points like no tomorrow again and the Power should feast. I like the Over as it has saluted in the Roos last 4 interstate games.
GWS Giants (4th) vs Western Bulldogs (8th)
The Giants are sitting comfortably in 4th place on the ladder with a 4-2 record, despite a tough loss to the Crows last round at Adelaide Oval, where they went down 52-34. Lachie Whitfield had a standout performance with 39 disposals, but the team just couldn't get over the line. They've been strong overall, with a solid 3-0-2 record in their last five games and perfect at home (2-0-0). The Giants excel in disposals (ranked 2nd in the league) and tackling (ranked 4th), so they're usually dominant around the ball. Up against the Bulldogs, they'll be looking to bounce back and keep pushing for a top spot.
The Bulldogs are coming off a massive 71-point win over the Saints at Docklands, where they kicked 18 goals. Aaron Naughton was on fire with 3 goals, and despite a knee injury to Luke Darcy (luckily not an ACL), Marcus Bontempelli returned to form with 30 disposals and 2 goals. They're currently sitting 8th on the ladder with a 3-3 record and have been solid both at home (2-0-2) and away (1-0-1). The Dogs excel in going forward, ranked 4th in both goals kicked and inside 50 entries, so they've got plenty of attacking power. They'll be looking to build on their recent win and take down the Giants this week.
Stadium Record
GWS are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. The Bulldogs are 2-1 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Bulldogs have won 8 games against the Giants.
Best Bet
The Dogs looked impressive last week and got the Bont back in the lineup. They also love playing the Giants, having won 7 of the last 8 by a 1-39 margin. This could be an upset.
Western Bulldogs +11.5 = $1.90
Gold Coast Suns (3rd) vs Sydney Swans (14th)
The Suns are having a great season so far, sitting 3rd on the ladder with a 4-1 record, despite a close 80-69 loss to the Tigers at Docklands last round. Ben Long was a standout with 3 goals, and both Touk Miller and Noah Anderson racked up over 30 disposals. They've been strong on the road (3-0-1) and solid at home (1-0-0), and they're excelling in key areas — ranked 1st for inside 50 entries, 2nd for goals kicked, and 3rd for clearances. The Suns are looking to bounce back after their first loss of the season and keep their momentum going against the Swans.
The Swans are struggling this season with a 2-4 record, currently sitting in 14th place on the ladder. They're coming off a tight 8-point loss to the Power at the SCG, where Aaron Francis scored 3 goals as the sub, and Matty Roberts racked up 30 disposals across halfback. Their form at home has been tough, still searching for their first win there (0-0-3), while they've been better on the road with a 2-0-1 record. They're on a two-game losing streak and have been struggling with disposals (14th in the league) and goals kicked (15th). They'll need to improve in these areas if they want to turn things around against the Suns.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue. Sydney are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Swans are 4-1 against the Suns in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
If the Swans figure out their forward line issues, they should be able to cover against a side that just lost against Richmond. Sydney have a good record on the Goldy too.
Carlton (13th) vs Geelong Cats (6th)
The Blues are sitting in 13th place on the ladder with a 2-4 record, but they're on a two-game winning streak after a huge 82-point win over North Melbourne, where they kicked 24 goals at Docklands. Zac Williams and Charlie Curnow both kicked 4 goals, while George Hewett had 34 disposals. At home, they've been inconsistent, with a 1-0-2 record, but they've had better luck away, also with a 1-0-2 record. Despite their struggles, the Blues excel in some key areas, ranked 1st in the AFL for clearances and tackling, and 2nd for inside 50 entries. They'll be hoping to continue their winning form as they face the Cats.
The Cats are in strong form with a 4-2 record and a 3-game winning streak, most recently beating Hawthorn by 7 points at the MCG, kicking 12 goals. Patrick Dangerfield led the way with 3 goals, while Bailey Smith added 28 disposals. Their record at home is perfect so far (3-0-0), but they've struggled a bit away (1-0-2). They sit 6th on the ladder and are excelling in key areas, ranked 3rd in the AFL for goals kicked and 2nd for tackling. However, they do have issues with disposals, sitting 16th in that stat. The Cats will look to continue their winning streak when they face the Blues.
Stadium Record
In their last 5 games at MCG, Carlton holds a 0-5 record. Geelong are 5-5 in their last 10 games at MCG.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Cats have won 3 games against the Blues.
Best Bet
The Blues have thrashed the Eagles and Roos as expected, but they'll find it much tougher against the Cats. So I'm going back to the low scoring trend, the Under is 6-0 in the Blues last 6 home games.
Hawthorn (7th) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)
The Hawks have had a solid season so far with a 4-2 record, but they're coming off two straight losses, most recently falling to the Cats by just 7 points at the MCG. They've been strong at home with a perfect 2-0-0 record, but have been a bit more mixed away (2-0-2). They're ranked 3rd in the AFL for tackling, which is one of their standout stats. In their last game, Mabior Chol and Jack Gunston both kicked 3 goals, while Karl Amon racked up 29 disposals and 7 inside 50s. Sitting 7th on the ladder, they'll be looking to bounce back and get back to winning ways against the Eagles.
The Eagles are back at the bottom of the ladder this season with a 0-6 record, and they're currently on a 6-game losing streak. They've yet to win a home or away game, sitting at the bottom of the ladder in 18th place. They've had issues across the board, ranking near the bottom in clearances, disposals, goals kicked, inside 50 entries, and tackling. In their last game, they came close but lost by just 2 points to the Bombers at Perth Stadium. Elijah Hewett showed some promise with 22 disposals and 2 goals, while Jake Waterman kicked 4 goals in the first quarter, but it wasn't enough to get the win. With no wins so far, they'll be looking to turn things around against the Hawks.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Marvel. West Coast are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Hawks are 3-2 against the Eagles in the last 5.
Best Bet
After a few losses, the Hawks will be desperate to play well and I think they'll do it easily against a woeful Eagles defence. Hawthorn are 6-0 ATS when they face a bottom 4 side too.
" ["post_title"]=> string(29) "2025 AFL Round 7 Betting Tips" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_status"]=> string(7) "publish" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(29) "2025-afl-round-7-betting-tips" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2025-04-23 23:32:00" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-04-23 23:32:00" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(0) ["guid"]=> string(58) "https://bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net/?p=18511" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["post_mime_type"]=> string(0) "" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" } [5]=> object(WP_Post)#5792 (24) { ["ID"]=> int(18483) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "9" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2025-04-17 05:15:33" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-04-17 05:15:33" ["post_content"]=> string(21520) "2025 AFL Round 6 Betting Predictions
Round 6 of the AFL season kicks off with an Easter tradition as the Lions host the Magpies at the Gabba on Thursday night footy.
Brisbane Lions (1st) vs Collingwood (4th)
The Lions head into their Round 6 showdown against the Magpies in red-hot form, sitting comfortably on top of the ladder with a flawless 5-0 record. Their most recent outing was an impressive 21-point win over the Western Bulldogs at Norwood Oval, where they piled on 18 goals. Eric Hipwood starred up forward with five majors, while Hugh McCluggage racked up 32 disposals to control the midfield. Their perfect 3-0 away record shows they can deliver outside of their home fortress too. Despite their dominance, there are a few cracks statistically. The Lions rank 16th in both disposals and tackles, and sit 14th for inside 50s — a surprising trend for an otherwise clinical outfit. Still, on a five-game winning streak and with finals footy clearly on the horizon, they’ll be tough to stop.
The Magpies are flying high with four straight wins under their belt and a strong 4-1 record heading into Round 6. Fresh off a convincing 31-point victory over the Swans at Adelaide Oval, Collingwood showed their scoring power with 16 goals, led by a dominant performance from Nick Daicos who collected 34 disposals. Currently sitting 4th on the ladder, the Pies have built their season on defensive strength, conceding just 343 points — one of the best in the competition. With a blockbuster against the ladder-leading Lions on the horizon, the Magpies will be out to make a serious statement.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 9-1 in their last 10 games at Gabba. Collingwood are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The head-to-head has is tied at 6-6 since 2018.
Best Bet
I think this will be a close contest, hopefully like the 2023 GF when the two sides were separated by just 4 pts. The Pies are coming off a good win over Sydney and have a 7-0 ATS when they face a team that just won the premiership.
Same Game Multi
Jamie Elliott will play game 200 and I think he can hit the scoreboard. The Under is 6-0 in the Lions last 6 home games.
Collingwood +10.5 / Under 175.5 pts / Jamie Elliott Anytime Goalscorer = $4.30
North Melbourne (15th) vs Carlton (14th)
It’s been a tough stretch for the Kangaroos, who come into Round 6 on a three-game losing streak and sitting 15th on the ladder with a 1-4 record. Their latest outing was a 52-point loss to the Suns at Barossa Park, where despite the margin, Caleb Daniel put in a solid individual performance with 32 disposals. Offensively, North Melbourne has struggled to generate enough scoreboard pressure, managing 441 points for the season while conceding a whopping 551 — the highest in the league. While their away form remains winless, they’ll hope a return to familiar surroundings helps steady the ship. One clear strength for the Roos is their ball-winning ability. They rank 3rd in the AFL for disposals, indicating they can find the footy — but turning that possession into effective inside 50 entries remains an issue, with the team ranked 16th in that area.
The Blues finally snapped their losing streak in emphatic fashion, crushing the West Coast Eagles by 71 points at Adelaide Oval. They piled on 17 goals, with Corey Durdin slotting four and George Hewett starring through the middle with a game-high 39 disposals. Now 14th on the ladder with a 1-4 record, Carlton will be desperate to build on the momentum as they take on fellow battlers North Melbourne. Despite their low ladder position, the Blues have some standout strengths — they rank 2nd in the AFL for clearances, inside 50s, and tackles, showcasing their ability to win the ball and apply pressure. However, turning that dominance into scoreboard reward remains a problem. Carlton ranks just 14th for goals kicked, which has cost them in tight contests. Their away form hasn’t delivered either, with two losses on the road so far this season.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 3-7 in their last 10 games at Marvel. Carlton are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Blues are 4-1 against the Kangaroos in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Under is a great trend with the Blues playing - it's 11-0. Hopefully, the Roos come to play.
West Coast Eagles (18th) vs Essendon (13th)
It’s been a nightmare start to the season for the Eagles, who remain winless after five rounds and sit anchored to the bottom of the ladder. Their most recent performance was a heavy 71-point defeat at the hands of the Blues, managing just 50 points while conceding 121 at Adelaide Oval. With a 0-5 record and the worst percentage in the competition, West Coast has struggled at both ends of the ground — scoring a league-low 293 points while giving up 589. Their weaknesses are widespread, ranking last in clearances, disposals, and goals kicked, and near the bottom for tackles and inside 50s. Neither home nor away form has offered much relief, and the Eagles are now on a five-game losing streak, desperate to find a spark and show signs of improvement.
The Bombers are beginning to hit their stride after a strong 39-point win over Melbourne in Round 5, where they booted 15 goals at Adelaide Oval to claim back-to-back victories. Now sitting 13th on the ladder with a 2-2 record and a game in hand, Essendon will be eyeing a third straight win as they take on a winless West Coast outfit. Statistically, the Bombers are one of the league’s strongest midfield units. They rank 1st in the AFL for disposals, 4th for clearances, and 5th for tackles — showcasing a well-rounded engine room that’s driving their recent form. Essendon has won once on the road this season, and they'll head into this matchup with plenty of confidence. Against the bottom-ranked Eagles, this presents a golden opportunity to boost percentage and continue their push toward finals contention.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 2-8 in their last 10 games at this venue. Essendon are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Bombers have won 6 games against the Eagles.
Best Bet
The Eagles are leaking points again and the Over is 5-1 in their last 6 at Optus.
Melbourne (17th) vs Fremantle (8th)
It’s been a brutal start to 2025 for the Demons, who are still searching for their first win after five straight losses. Sitting 17th on the ladder, Melbourne’s most recent outing was a 39-point defeat at the hands of the Bombers at Adelaide Oval, leaving them winless both at home and on the road. With just 305 points scored this season and 503 conceded, the Demons have struggled to find their rhythm at both ends of the ground. Their weaknesses are clear — they rank 16th in the AFL for clearances, 17th for goals kicked, and 15th for tackles.
The Dockers are on a roll, surging into Round 6 on a three-game winning streak and sitting 8th on the ladder with a 3-2 record. Their Round 5 performance was arguably their best yet — a dominant 61-point win over Richmond at Barossa Park, where they kicked 16 goals, including a career-best six from Josh Treacy. Fremantle’s rise has been driven by forward half pressure and attacking efficiency, with the Dockers ranked 4th in the AFL for inside 50s. With a 2-1 away record and plenty of confidence, the Dockers will head into this matchup as heavy favourites against a winless Melbourne side. It’s the kind of game Fremantle needs to win — and win well — to keep building momentum and separate themselves from the mid-table pack.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 0-5 in their last 5 games at this venue. Fremantle are 4-6 in their last 10 games at MCG.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Dockers have won 4 games against the Demons.
Best Bet
Hard to get any confidence about the Dees so the Dockers to get the job done. They're 8-0 ATS against the Demons and Melbourne has lost 8 straight in Victoria.
Adelaide Crows (7th) vs GWS Giants (3rd)
Despite sitting 7th on the ladder with a 3-2 record, the Crows are in a mini-slump after dropping their last two games — most recently falling to the Cats by 19 points at Adelaide Oval. Darcy Fogarty was a bright spot up forward with four goals, while Brodie Smith racked up 35 disposals, but it wasn’t enough to stop the slide. Adelaide’s strength lies in its attacking flair and midfield depth. They’re ranked 1st in the AFL for goals kicked and sit inside the top three for clearances, disposals, and inside 50s — a clear sign they know how to win the ball and hit the scoreboard.
The Giants are flying high in 2025, sitting third on the ladder with a 4-1 record after a strong 28-point win over St Kilda in Round 5. They kicked 16 goals in that match — led by Toby Greene’s five — while Lachie Ash continued his strong form with 33 disposals. GWS have been one of the most balanced teams in the competition. They’re ranked 4th in goals kicked. Their midfield continues to get the job done, ranking 5th for disposals, and their pressure has been top-tier, sitting 4th for tackles. With a perfect 2-0 record at home and two wins on the road already, the Giants have proven they can win anywhere. They’ll now face a Crows outfit coming off two straight losses but boasting one of the most potent attacks in the comp.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 5-5 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. GWS are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Giants are 4-1 against the Crows in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
This should be a high-scoring affair with two in-form forward lines on show. The Over is also 7-1 in the Crows last 8 home games.
Richmond (16th) vs Gold Coast Suns (2nd)
The Tigers are in the midst of a four-game losing streak after a heavy 61-point loss to the Dockers at Barossa Park in Round 5. Sitting 16th on the ladder with just one win from five matches, Richmond’s season is in desperate need of a turnaround. The team’s struggles are evident across the board, ranking 15th for disposals, 16th for goals kicked, 17th for inside 50 entries, and 18th for tackling — a clear indication that they’re being beaten to the ball and struggling to apply consistent pressure. Richmond will be looking to bounce back in front of their home crowd, where they have a 1-2 record so far this season. With key players like Jack Hopper showing individual form, the Tigers need a collective effort to dig themselves out of their slump.
The Suns have been one of the standout teams of 2025, sitting 2nd on the ladder with a perfect 4-0 record. Their dominant 52-point win over North Melbourne in Round 5 saw them kick a massive 21 goals, including five from Ben King, as they continued to showcase their impressive attacking power. Gold Coast has been sensational in the midfield, ranked 1st in the AFL for clearances and inside 50 entries, while also sitting 2nd for goals kicked. They’ve been able to move the ball quickly and efficiently. Defensively, the Suns have been just as impressive, conceding only 290 points, making them one of the toughest sides to score against. With a flawless away record, the Suns will travel to Melbourne as clear favourites against a Tigers team struggling to find form.
Stadium Record
Richmond are 0-9 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at Marvel. Gold Coast are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Suns have won 5 games against the Tigers.
Best Bet
The Suns are on fire and I think they'll enjoy playing at Marvel. The Tigers do not like it here, they've lost their last 6 and they're also 0-6 ATS when they face the Suns.
Sydney Swans (10th) vs Port Adelaide (11th)
The Swans will be looking to rebound after a tough 31-point loss to the Magpies in Round 5. Sitting 10th on the ladder with a 2-3 record, Sydney has shown promise but will need to tighten up in key areas to become a finals contender. Their offensive output has been relatively strong, but defensively they’ve conceded 408 points — indicating they’ve been vulnerable at times. The Swans’ struggles in clearances and disposals have been key factors in their inconsistency, often failing to get first use of the ball and control the tempo of the game. These issues will need to be addressed against the Power, who have the tools to capitalize on such weaknesses. Despite their struggles, the Swans have been solid on the road, with a 2-0-1 away record, showing that they are capable of challenging teams in unfamiliar territory. With a home record of 0-2 so far, they’ll need to improve their form on home turf.
Port Adelaide will look to build on their recent 30-point victory over Hawthorn in Round 5 as they aim to find more consistency in a season that’s been up and down. With a 2-3 record and sitting 11th on the ladder, the Power have shown flashes of brilliance but have struggled to put together a sustained run of good form. The Power's strengths are in their disposal efficiency, and they’ve shown an ability to move the ball well through the midfield, with Zak Butters leading the charge. However, their tackling efforts have been a weak point, ranking 14th in the AFL. They’ll need to apply more pressure on the ball carrier to keep the Swans in check and ensure they don’t get easy entry into their forward line. Port Adelaide has been solid at home with a 2-0-1 record, but their struggles on the road will need to be addressed, especially in a competitive match like this one against the Swans
Stadium Record
Sydney are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Port Adelaide are 2-1 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Power are 7-1 against the Swans.
Best Bet
Port were impressive against the Hawks last week and I think they head to Sydney with a lot of confidence. The Swans have plenty of experience on the sideline too. Port are 4-1 as an underdog in this matchup.
Western Bulldogs (12th) vs St Kilda (9th)
The Bulldogs will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak when they face the Saints in Round 6. After a tough 21-point loss to the Lions at Norwood Oval, they are now 2-3 on the season and sitting 12th on the ladder. With 444 points scored and 463 conceded, the Bulldogs have shown they can compete, but their defensive struggles have been apparent, particularly in high-pressure moments. With a solid home record of 1-0-2, the Bulldogs will be hoping to regain their form on their home ground. However, they’ll need to tighten their defence and improve their consistency if they are to take down a Saints team that has proven capable of turning the game in their favour. While the Bulldogs' attacking line has been potent, they have struggled to convert their dominance into consistent victories. Their midfield strength will need to shine, and they’ll need to limit the Saints' impact on the scoreboard to turn their season around.
The Saints will be aiming to bounce back from a 28-point loss to the Giants in Round 5 when they face the Bulldogs in a crucial match. Sitting 9th on the ladder with a 3-2 record, the Saints have shown plenty of promise this season but need to recover from their recent dip in form. They’ll be keen to regain their winning ways, especially after a narrow defeat at Norwood Oval. The Saints have been impressive in key areas, ranking 5th in the AFL for clearances and goals kicked, while also boasting a solid 1-0-1 away record. However, they’ll need to improve their defensive efficiency after conceding 461 points this season. Their ability to win clearances and capitalize on their forward pressure will be key in overcoming a Bulldogs team that’s been solid in attack. With a good record at home, the Saints will want to come out strong and assert their dominance in this matchup to stay competitive in the top half of the ladder. This game will be important for maintaining momentum and ensuring they don’t slip further down the standings.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Marvel. St Kilda are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Bulldogs hold a 3-2 record against the Saints.
Best Bet
The trend is the Over with the Saints, it's 4-1 in their last 5 and the Dogs are leaking pts too.
Geelong Cats (6th) vs Hawthorn (5th)
The Cats will be looking to extend their winning streak to three games when they face the Hawks in Round 6. After a hard-fought 19-point victory over the Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval, the Cats are now 3-2 on the season and sitting 6th on the ladder. With 503 points scored and 383 conceded, they’ve shown a potent attack and a solid defence. One of the standout features of the Cats' game has been their tackling, as they rank 1st in the AFL for this key stat. With players like P. Dangerfield and J. Cameron firing, the Cats’ forward line will be a significant threat to the Hawks’ defence. They also excel in goals kicked, ranking 3rd in the AFL, making them a dynamic and hard-to-stop team when they hit their stride. With a solid home record of 2-0-0, the Cats will be confident heading into this matchup. However, they will need to maintain their focus and intensity, as the Hawks are always capable of turning up the heat, especially when underdogs. The Cats' key strengths in clearances, tackling, and scoring should give them the edge, but they’ll need to make sure they avoid complacency and play a complete game to take the victory.
The Hawks will be eager to bounce back after a tough 30-point loss to the Power in Round 5, as they prepare to face the Cats in Round 6. Despite the setback, the Hawks have been impressive this season with a 4-1 record and are currently sitting 5th on the ladder. Their attacking prowess is evident, having scored 454 points so far, while their defence has been solid with 406 points against. The Hawks’ strength lies in their inside 50 entries, where they rank 5th in the AFL, and their tackling, where they rank 3rd. This high-pressure game style will be crucial when they take on a Cats team known for its strong tackling and potent forward line. J. Gunston, who kicked 6 goals in their last game, will be key in leading the Hawks’ attack against a Cats defence that is tough to break. With a perfect home record of 2-0-0, the Hawks will be confident of turning their fortunes around at home and aiming to maintain their strong position on the ladder. Their combination of clean inside entries and aggressive tackling could help them neutralize the Cats’ strengths, but they’ll need to sharpen their attack and finish strong to get the better of a well-rounded Cats team.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. In their last 5 games at MCG, Hawthorn holds a 5-0 record.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Cats hold a 6-4 record.
Best Bet
The Hawks should bounce back at the MCG but the Cats won't be easy, especially with Danger kicking goals. So I like the Over on Easter Monday, it's 7-0 when the Cats are at the MCG.
" ["post_title"]=> string(36) "2025 AFL Round 6 Betting Predictions" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_status"]=> string(7) "publish" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(36) "2025-afl-round-6-betting-predictions" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2025-04-17 05:15:33" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-04-17 05:15:33" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(0) ["guid"]=> string(58) "https://bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net/?p=18483" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["post_mime_type"]=> string(0) "" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" } [6]=> object(WP_Post)#5746 (24) { ["ID"]=> int(18450) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "9" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2025-04-09 07:37:18" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-04-09 07:37:18" ["post_content"]=> string(13932) "2025 AFL Round 5 Betting Predictions
Gather round is back for another year and we have an excellent weekend ahead of us in Adelaide. It starts with a top 8 clash as the Crows host the Cats on Thursday night at the Adelaide Oval.
Adelaide Crows (5th) vs Geelong Cats (8th)
The Crows have been ticking off a few old hoodoos lately as they push for a return to finals footy for the first time since 2017, but there’s still that lingering issue when it comes to playing Geelong. Adelaide has only beaten the Cats once in their last eight matchups. That said, they’ll be fired up after a controversial loss last week and will be looking to kick off Gather Round with a big response.
Geelong's had a bit of a shaky start to the year, but their comfortable win over Melbourne showed they’re not far off clicking into gear. A clash with a red-hot Adelaide side will be a great test to see where they’re really at. And playing at Adelaide Oval won’t worry them too much—they’ve won five of their last six there.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Geelong are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Cats are 4-1 against the Crows in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Gather Round should kick off with a quality and high-scoring contest between the Crows and Cats. Geelong are 6-0 against the Over at the Adelaide Oval and Adelaide are easily the highest-scoring team in the AFL this season.
Same Game Multi
Thilthorpe has kicked 3+ goals in 5 straight games, highlighted by a bag of 5 last week. Cameron has kicked a goal in every game this year and I think he'll stand up on Thursday. Dawson comes off 31 touches and has hit the 25 mark in 4 of his last 5 games. Patrick Dangerfield has recorded 16+ disposals in each of his 13 games against Adelaide - his former team.
Collingwood Magpies (6th) vs Sydney Swans (9th)
Collingwood isn’t letting any concerns about being the oldest team on average in AFL history slow them down. With three straight wins, they’re looking like they’ll be back in the top four mix again this year. While they don’t travel as much as some teams, the Magpies have shown they thrive on the road and won’t be worried about taking on the Swans at a venue where they’ve won their last nine games.
Sydney has turned its season around with two solid wins in a row, and the Swans were especially impressive in their huge victory over North Melbourne, with their fast-paced, slingshot game firing again. They’ll face a tougher challenge this week, but they can take confidence from their recent record against Collingwood, having won five of their last six meetings.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 8-1 at this venue since 2018. Sydney are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Swans are 6-3 against the Magpies since 2018.
Best Bet
The Under is 5-1 in the Pies last 6 and I think both sides will find it tough to kick a massive score.
North Melbourne Kangaroos (13th) vs Gold Coast Suns (3rd)
North Melbourne took a big step backward after failing to live up to the growing expectations, suffering a tough loss to a Sydney team missing some key players. While the Kangaroos have added some experience to go with their young stars, they still need to prove they can bounce back from tough losses and consistently challenge top teams like the Suns, who are rapidly on the rise.
Gold Coast is on a roll, aiming for four straight wins to start the season, which would be a first in the club’s history, and they’re setting up a strong case for their first-ever finals appearance. Even though the Suns have had a rough recent record against North Melbourne, with two losses in their last three matchups, their revamped team is looking good and they’ll be hoping to keep climbing up the ladder.
Stadium Record
Both sides haven't played here.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Suns are 6-4 against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 interstate games and their away winning woes from last season seem to have disappeared. So I think they rack up a big win over the Roos, who were disappointing last week.
Carlton Blues (16th) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)
Carlton is already facing the reality of another tough season after four straight losses, but now they've got a golden chance to get things back on track against the winless West Coast. While the Blues won’t be taking anything for granted, especially after their surprise loss to the Tigers, they have a strong record against the Eagles, winning the last four matchups by an average of 77 points.
West Coast lost some of the momentum they had built up recently after being outclassed by Greater Western Sydney, leaving the Eagles with even more worries both on and off the field. It was their fourth straight loss, but they had shown some hope in previous games with more competitive performances, and now they’ll be looking to take advantage of the pressure mounting on the Blues.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. West Coast are 3-7 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval.
Head to Head Record
The Blues are 4-1 against the Eagles in the last 5.
Best Bet
This feels like a game where the Blues can unleash a bit of frustration but I'm not sure about their forward line at the moment. Take the Uuder, which is 10-0 in the Blues last 10. Each of Carlton's last 10 matches have gone UNDER the total match points line.
Western Bulldogs (10th) vs Brisbane Lions (2nd)
The Western Bulldogs can’t be too upset with their even win-loss record given the injury crisis they’re dealing with, but they would’ve been frustrated by their loss to Fremantle. They pushed the Dockers all the way, just like they did in their earlier loss to the Pies, but now they need to stay in touch with the top teams while they wait for some reinforcements to arrive.
Brisbane has quietly made a statement with an undefeated start to the season, even though they haven’t yet hit the same high levels that took them to the premiership last year. The Lions know from last year’s slow start that early form doesn’t always define the season, but they won’t mind chasing a 5-0 start to the season for the first time in the club’s history.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 1-0 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Bulldogs are 5-4 against the Lions.
Best Bet
The Dogs have been good despite a long injury list but I think the Lions are locked in, having won 9 on the trot. They would love to make it 10 in a row.
Melbourne Demons (17th) vs Essendon Bombers (14th)
Melbourne kicked off the season with a strong effort, narrowly losing to Greater Western Sydney, but things have since gone downhill with three more losses and a growing injury list. The Demons are struggling with familiar problems, particularly a forward line that just isn’t clicking, leaving them ranked 17th for points scored. To make matters worse, they’re also last for clearances per game, adding to their growing list of issues.
Essendon managed to head into the bye on a high after pulling off a big win over Port Adelaide, coming from behind to score the last four goals of the game. The Bombers must have enjoyed the spotlight on other teams almost as much as their own victory, but now they’ll need to be ready for a tough match against another side fighting to turn their season around.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Essendon are 5-5 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval.
Head to Head Record
The Demons are 5-2 against the Bombers since 2018.
Best Bet
Both sides aren't in the best form so I like the chances of a low scoring affair under lights. The Under is also 4-0 in the Bombers last 4 interstate matches.
Richmond Tigers (15th) vs Fremantle Dockers (11th)
Richmond always knew this season would be a bit of a rollercoaster with a young squad, but they’d be happy with the glimpses of a better future, even after last week’s loss to Brisbane. The Tigers managed to give the reigning champions a run for their money, with their young stars shining and the midfield putting up a solid fight. The next step for them is to be consistently competitive, especially against a Fremantle team that’s starting to hit its stride.
Fremantle has shaken off a slow start to the season and is starting to find its rhythm, even though injuries are still a concern. The Dockers set up their win over the Bulldogs with a six-goal run just before halftime, showing off a more attacking style of play. This shift could be just what they need to take advantage of a Richmond side that’s still learning the ropes.
Stadium Record
Head to Head Record
The Dockers are 3-1 (1 draw) against the Tigers in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Should be good conditions for footy and the Tigers have been leaking pts. So I like the Over, which is 7-0 when the Dockers are playing interstate.
St Kilda Saints (7th) vs Greater Western Sydney Giants (4th)
St Kilda is quickly proving it’s not just a surprise anymore and is becoming one of the most exciting teams in the competition, averaging 107 points per game over its three consecutive wins. The Saints managed to shake off a rough record at Adelaide Oval to defeat Port Adelaide and now have a chance to make their week in the city of churches even better with a win over another finals contender.
Greater Western Sydney had little trouble in their dominant win over an injury-hit West Coast, and what’s even more concerning for the competition is that their 'Orange Tsunami' game is starting to click. The Giants still have a multi-faceted attack that hasn’t quite hit full gear yet but could really test St Kilda’s defence, which is known for being dangerous when it transitions from defence to attack.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 1-0 at this venue since 2018. Greater Western Sydney are 1-0 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The head-to-head is tied at 4-4 (1 draw) since 2018.
Best Bet
I think the Saints are playing great footy and get the benefit of playing in Adelaide back-to-back. They've also covered in 5 of their last 6 against the Giants.
Port Adelaide Power (12th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (1st)
Port Adelaide is in danger of watching its finals hopes slip away after two disappointing losses to teams that didn’t make the top eight last year. But the Power still have a big chance to turn things around at Gather Round with a statement win over the high-flying Hawks, a team they famously beat in a classic final just six games ago.
Hawthorn has been hit with the news that Will Day will be out for a while, but the rest of the team has had a chance to freshen up after a bye week. The Hawks have already dealt with key injuries during their undefeated start to the season and showed in last year’s finals that they can still push the Power, even without their star midfielder.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval, Port Adelaide holds a 6-4 record. Hawthorn are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Power hold a 4-1 record against the Hawks.
Best Bet
The Power have been struggling this year and I think the Hawks will want to get some revenge after their finals exit at this venue last season. Hawthorn are 9-2 ATS in interstate games too.
" ["post_title"]=> string(36) "2025 AFL Round 5 Betting Predictions" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_status"]=> string(7) "publish" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(36) "2025-afl-round-5-betting-predictions" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2025-04-09 07:37:18" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-04-09 07:37:18" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(0) ["guid"]=> string(58) "https://bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net/?p=18450" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["post_mime_type"]=> string(0) "" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" } [7]=> object(WP_Post)#5778 (24) { ["ID"]=> int(18436) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "9" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2025-04-02 22:28:41" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-04-02 22:28:41" ["post_content"]=> string(12020) "Old rivals Collingwood and Carlton kick off Round 4 at the MCG on Thursday night footy. Can the Blues avoid a 0-4 start or will the Pies continue their winning ways? Here is a preview of all the AFL Round 4 action.
Collingwood Magpies (6th) vs Carlton Blues (16th)
Collingwood’s season has been a bit of a rollercoaster, but they went into the bye with a winning record after edging out the Western Bulldogs in a thriller. They’ve got a great chance to keep that momentum going and put even more pressure on Carlton, especially since they’ve had the upper hand in this rivalry, winning 10 of their last 12 clashes.
Carlton is in serious danger of slipping out of finals contention before their season even gets going, making this showdown with Collingwood a must-win. The Blues have struggled after halftime, getting outscored by a combined 89 points in their three games so far. If they don’t finish stronger this week, they could be staring at a brutal 0-4 start — a far cry from the 4-0 record they had at this stage last season.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are looking for a 7th straight win at the MCG. Carlton are 1-4 at the MCG in their last 5.
Head to Head Record
The Magpies are 10-2 against the Blues since 2018.
Best Bet
The Under has saluted in the Blues last 9 games as they struggle to hit the scoreboard so I think the trend keeps on going this Thursday night as the Pies defence has been strong.
Same Game Multi
The Blues should be desperate for a win and I think they can get within 2 goals. Charlie Curnow is back from injury, Kemp kicked 5 last week and Cripps has a good record against the Pies. Last season, the margin in both games between the two sides was 3 and 6 pts as well. Daicos comes off 39 disposals and I don't think the Blues will be able to stop him getting 30+ touches.
Under 168.5 / Carlton +12.5 / Daicos 30+ = $5.50
Geelong Cats (9th) vs Melbourne Demons (17th)
Geelong has had a tough reminder of how fine the margins can be, with two close losses knocking them out of the top eight and back into the chasing pack. But they’ll be happy to return to their home turf, especially against a Melbourne side they’ve dominated at this venue—winning 22 of their last 25 meetings here.
Melbourne came into the season looking for a quick return to finals contention, but instead, they’re fighting to prove their premiership window isn’t shutting. Back-to-back shock losses to teams that finished in the bottom six last year have put them in a tough spot, and they’ll need a massive turnaround to avoid their first 0-4 start since 2012.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Kardinia Park. Melbourne are 1-4 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Demons are 3-2 against the Cats in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Over is 7-1 in this matchup when the Cats are at home and the Dees have been giving up plenty of points.
Gold Coast Suns (4th) vs Adelaide Crows (2nd)
Gold Coast is set for one of its biggest games yet, taking on Adelaide in a clash between two teams on the rise. Both sides are looking to jump from outside the eight last year into the top four, and the Suns have already made a statement with two dominant wins. Another victory here would not only keep the momentum going but also mark just the second time in their 15 seasons they’ve started 3-0.
Adelaide’s rebuild is finally paying off, but few expected their rise to be this explosive. The Crows have won all three games so far—and done it in style, averaging 53-point victories while winning every quarter. Another big performance here would not only cement their hot start but could also see them snatch top spot from the Hawks.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Carrara. Adelaide are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Suns hold a 3-2 record against the Crows.
Best Bet
Both sides are looking impressive so I think the Over looks the best bet between these two. The Over is also 9-0 in the Crows last 9-day games.
Richmond Tigers (15th) vs Brisbane Lions (3rd)
Richmond’s round-one excitement feels like a distant memory after back-to-back heavy losses, averaging a 77-point margin. The Tigers have already had a couple of reality checks, and now they face an even bigger challenge against the reigning premiers. At this point, the focus might be less on winning and more on damage control while giving their young players a chance to learn from the best.
Brisbane has absolutely dominated Richmond in their last two meetings, winning by an average of 100 points, so another blowout wouldn’t be a shock. Despite starting their premiership defence with three straight wins, the Lions have somehow flown under the radar. But with momentum building, they’re looking more dangerous by the week—bad news for the Tigers as they take on last year’s wooden spooners.
Stadium Record
Richmond are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue. Brisbane are 3-2 in their last 5 games at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head-to-head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
The Tigers have been smashed in the last 2 weeks and they usually struggle in day games, going 0-12 ATS. The Lions head to the MCG for the first time since winning the GF and I think they'll get a big win.
North Melbourne Kangaroos (10th) vs Sydney Swans (11th)
North Melbourne put up a solid fight against a red-hot Adelaide last week before the Crows pulled away late in the third quarter. But the Kangaroos showed enough to prove their big win over Melbourne wasn’t just a one-off. Now, they’re back on their home turf for a tough challenge against Sydney—a team they’ve only beaten once since 2015.
Sydney has been living on the edge, playing in back-to-back thrillers—falling just short against Brisbane before edging out Fremantle. With a bye in between, the Swans will be hoping that win sparks some momentum, but they know just how tight the competition is as they look to keep pace with the early frontrunners.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 3-3 in their last 6 games at Marvel. Sydney are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Swans are 8-1 against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
I think the Roos matchup well against Sydney and there's no Gulden/Mills for the Swans. But I also like the Over under the roof, it's saluted in the last 5 meetings.
GWS Giants (5th) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)
GWS had the perfect chance to make a statement last week after a hot start with the breeze against Hawthorn, but they couldn’t hold on and ended up getting overrun. They’ll have to wait for another shot to prove they’re genuine contenders this season, but first, they need to take care of business and avoid a costly slip-up against a desperate Eagles side still chasing its first win.
West Coast might be 0-3, but they’ve shown some positive signs, regularly coming out firing before fading as the game goes on. The challenge now is staying in the contest for longer and finding a way to break through for that elusive first win under new coach Andrew McQualter.
Stadium Record
GWS are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. West Coast are 3-4 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Giants hold a 3-2 record against the Eagles.
Best Bet
The Eagles played well in their first interstate game of the season at the Gabba so that gives them some hope of catching up with the Giants here. The Eagles are 7-1 ATS when they play a top-8 side too.
Port Adelaide Power (12th) vs St Kilda Saints (7th)
Port Adelaide started the season with big ambitions of making a Grand Final push under Ken Hinkley, but things haven’t gone to plan. A win over Richmond was sandwiched between two concerning losses, and they’ll be eager to turn things around. The good news? They’ve dominated St Kilda in recent years, winning 14 of their last 15 matchups.
St Kilda wasn’t expected to be a serious contender this season, but they’ve surprised plenty by cracking into the top eight. A shock win over Geelong followed by a dominant performance against Richmond has them full of confidence. But they’ll get a real test this week against a fired-up Port side—especially given their struggles at Adelaide Oval, where they’ve won just three times in 19 attempts.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. St Kilda are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Power are 8-1 against the Saints since 2018.
Best Bet
The Saints are playing good footy and I give them a good chance of upsetting the Power in Adelaide. The away side has a 10-1 ATS record in this matchup too.
Fremantle Dockers (13th) vs Western Bulldogs (8th)
Fremantle got things back on track with a big win over rival West Coast, but the real test is whether they can match it with the top teams. One positive sign was hitting triple figures on the scoreboard, showing they’re starting to add some attacking flair rather than relying solely on their defence and strong midfield.
The Western Bulldogs have fought their way into the top eight with back-to-back wins, even with key players like captain Marcus Bontempelli sidelined. A win over Fremantle would be another big step toward locking in a finals spot, but just as important is the experience they’re giving their young guns while still banking wins.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 5-4 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. The Bulldogs are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Bulldogs are 6-4 against the Dockers.
Best Bet
Despite injuries to key players, the Doggies are playing a tough brand of footy. Freo has lost 4 of their last 5 as a favourite and I think they'll find the Dogs tough to put away.
" ["post_title"]=> string(36) "2025 AFL Round 4 Betting Predictions" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_status"]=> string(7) "publish" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(36) "2025-afl-round-4-betting-predictions" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2025-04-02 22:28:41" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-04-02 22:28:41" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(0) ["guid"]=> string(58) "https://bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net/?p=18436" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["post_mime_type"]=> string(0) "" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" } } ["theme"]=> string(14) "news-item-grid" ["class"]=> string(3) "row" } array(8) { [0]=> object(WP_Post)#5791 (24) { ["ID"]=> int(18643) ["post_author"]=> string(2) "17" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2025-05-09 07:13:07" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-05-09 07:13:07" ["post_content"]=> string(2953) "Alright, after a full day streaming AFL 26, here’s the honest truth — it’s definitely a step up from AFL 23, no question. The gameplay feels somewhat smoother, way more physical, and way more rewarding when you get things right.
That said, it’s still rough around the edges. There are bugs (some pretty funny ones, others... not so much), but we’ll get to that.
Gameplay First — And It’s Certainly Improved
The goalkicking is proper hard now. You’ve actually got to focus. No more auto-slotting them from 55m out. You mess up the timing? It’s a shank. You rush it? It’s a shank. But when you nail it from the boundary it genuinely feels like an accomplishment. It adds tension, and I love that.
Marking’s way better too. Pack marks are intense. It’s all about positioning, timing, and a bit of luck. You can’t just spam the mark button anymore and hope for the best. Leading does have its issues with defenders zipping infront of you. But contested grabs, intercept marks — they all feel way more satisfying when timed correctly.
And speaking of improvements, the physical stuff. Jostling, bumping, body-on-body contests — finally, it feels like footy. You can crash into packs, throw your weight around, and actually feel the impact, Players now hit each other in the air and dont phase into each other anymore. It’s not perfect, but it’s way more realistic than what we had last year.
Player Career mode is a much needed inclusion and Management Mode is way more detailed.
Still Got Issues, Though
Now, don’t get it twisted — there are still bugs. Some minor, some game-breaking. During my stream, I ran into a few weird T-Pose animations, some AI doing laps outside the ground, and a couple of crashes when running through the banner.
You can check out all the stuff I found over on my socials — just search GWSharpy and you’ll see the chaos.
The games menus feel clean but the text could be a bit bigger. A main issue is the commentary’s still so flat, and some player models are, let’s just say... unique. But look, compared to AFL 23, it’s clear they’ve listened. It’s not just a patch job — it actually feels like they’re building something better here.
Final Thoughts
At the end of the day, AFL 26 is a proper footy challenge. It’s harder, it’s rougher, and it rewards good play. Is it perfect? Nah. But it’s got the bones of a great game — and with a few more updates, it could be the footy game we’ve all been waiting for.
If you’re a diehard fan or just keen to see how it stacks up, give it a crack. Just be ready for a few glitches and don’t expect perfection straight out of the box.
7.5/10
For all my gameplay, thoughts, and bug clips — hit up my socials at GWSharpy.
" ["post_title"]=> string(57) "Honest AFL 26 Review: The Game AFL Fans Deserve? Finally?" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_status"]=> string(7) "publish" ["comment_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(54) "honest-afl-26-review-the-game-afl-fans-deserve-finally" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2025-05-10 05:46:25" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-05-10 05:46:25" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(0) ["guid"]=> string(58) "https://bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net/?p=18643" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["post_mime_type"]=> string(0) "" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" } [1]=> object(WP_Post)#5757 (24) { ["ID"]=> int(18621) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "9" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2025-05-07 22:44:03" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-05-07 22:44:03" ["post_content"]=> string(19151) "2025 AFL Round 9 Betting Predictions
The Showdown is the highlight of Round 9 as the Power take on the Crows this Saturday night. But the round will start with the Dockers looking to respond against the Pies on Thursday night in Perth.
Fremantle (9th) vs Collingwood (2nd)
The Dockers head into their clash with the Magpies, sitting at 4-4 for the season and just outside the top 8 in 9th spot. They’ve shown some promise, but consistency has been an issue, especially after a rough 94-33 loss to the Saints at Docklands last round. Jye Amiss was one of the few bright spots, kicking 2 goals in that game. At home, they’ve been solid with a 2-1 record, but things get shaky on the road with a 2-3 split. The Dockers’ biggest concerns are around the contest - they rank 16th in the league for clearances and 15th for disposals. With a 3-2 record in their last five and currently on a one-game skid, they’ll need to tidy up the basics if they’re going to bounce back against a strong Magpies side.
The Magpies are coming off a narrow 3-point loss to the Cats at the MCG, but overall they’ve been in great form, winning four of their last five. Mihocek was a standout last game, booting 4 goals. At home, they’ve been tough to beat with a 4-1 record, and they've been solid on the road too at 2-1. Stat-wise, the Pies are a force - they rank top 5 in the AFL for clearances, inside 50s, and tackles. Despite the recent loss, they’ve been one of the most consistent teams this season and will be looking to bounce back strongly against a Dockers side that's been up and down.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. Collingwood are 3-1 (1 draw) in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Magpies are 3-1 (1 draw) against the Dockers in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
A real shocker by Freo last week but they are better at home, so there's some hope. But I don't think their forward line will be able to kick enough pts against the Pies defence.
Same Game Multi
It's hard to have any confidence in the Dockers, so I like the Pies to cover in Perth. They're 4-0 ATS when they face Freo and should be the better side on the day. Nick Daicos is finding the goals at the moment, he's kicked a goal in his last 3 games. I think he offers nice value to kick a goal on Thursday night.
Under 160.5 pts / Collingwood +2.5 / Nick Daicos Anytime Goalscorer = $5.60
St Kilda (10th) vs Carlton (13th)
The Saints are coming off a massive 61-point win over Fremantle at Docklands, where they slammed through 14 goals and looked sharp all around. Jack Macrae racked up 38 disposals and Cam Sharman chipped in with 4 goals in a dominant showing. They’re now sitting at 4-4 on the season and sit just outside the top 8 in 10th spot. At home, they’ve held their own with a 3-2 record, while away from home, they’ve been a bit patchier at 1-2. Over their last five, they’ve gone 2-3, but they’re riding a bit of momentum now with that solid win. One of their key strengths is tackling - they’re ranked 5th in the league in that department. With the Blues up next, the Saints will be hoping to keep that pressure game going and climb back into finals contention.
The Blues head into their clash with the Saints sitting 13th on the ladder with a 3-5 record and looking to bounce back after a rough 60-point loss to the Crows at Adelaide Oval. They’ve gone 3-2 over their last five but are currently on a one-game losing streak. At home, they’ve been decent with a 2-2 record, but their away form hasn’t been great, sitting at 1-3. Despite their spot on the ladder, the Blues actually stack up well in a few key areas - they’re ranked 1st in the AFL for tackling, and 3rd for both clearances and inside 50s. If they can tidy up their execution and bring that pressure game, they’ve got a real shot at bouncing back against the Saints.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 7-8 at this venue since 2018. Carlton are 5-5 in their last 10 games at MCG.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Saints are 6-3 against the Blues.
Best Bet
A great win by the Saints last week and the Blues are wildly inconsistent. They're also just 1-5 ATS at the MCG.
Melbourne (15th) vs Hawthorn (3rd)
The Demons are starting to find some form after a slow start, coming into this clash with the Hawks on a 3-game winning streak. They’re 3-5 on the season and sitting 15th on the ladder, but their recent 32-point win over the Eagles in Perth - where they booted 16 goals - shows they’re building momentum. Max Gawn was huge last round with 35 disposals, and Daniel Turner chipped in with 3 goals. That said, there are still areas they need to fix - Melbourne ranks 14th in clearances and tackles, and 16th for goals kicked. Their home record is 2-3, and away it's 1-2, so consistency has been an issue. Still, with confidence growing, the Dees will be looking to keep the streak alive against a Hawks outfit they’ll feel they can match up well against.
The Hawks are flying high at the moment, sitting 3rd on the ladder with a 6-2 record and coming off a dominant 65-point win over Richmond at the MCG, where they kicked 16 goals. Gunston and Watson both nailed 3 goals each, while Josh Battle racked up an impressive 33 disposals. They’ve now won two in a row and are 3-2 across their last five games. At home, they’re a perfect 4-0, and they’ve held their own on the road too with a 2-2 record. Statistically, the Hawks are one of the top sides in the comp - ranked 4th for both disposals and goals, and 3rd for tackling. With their current form and a strong all-round game, they’ll head into the clash with the Demons full of confidence.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Hawthorn are 9-1 in their last 10 games at MCG.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Demons hold an 8-1 (1 draw) record against the Hawks.
Best Bet
The Hawks are 9-1 ATS at the MCG and I think they'll handle the Dees, who may struggle after a Perth trip.
Essendon (11th) vs Sydney Swans (14th)
The Bombers are coming off a tight 3-point win over North Melbourne at Docklands, where they kicked 9 goals. Zach Merrett was in great form, collecting 35 disposals, while Archie Perkins added 3 goals to the tally. Sitting 11th on the ladder with a 4-3 record, the Bombers have been solid, especially in their last five games where they’ve gone 4-1. They’ve been strong in disposals, ranked 2nd in the AFL, but they’ve struggled with their goal-kicking, ranking 15th, and aren’t getting enough inside 50 entries, also sitting 15th in that area. On the road, they’re unbeaten with a 2-2 record, and at home, they’re 2-1. With a winning streak on the line, the Bombers will be looking to shore up their weaknesses and keep the momentum going against the Swans.
The Swans are looking to build on their 14-point win over the GWS Giants at the SCG, where they kicked 12 goals. James Jordan was a standout, kicking 2 goals in that victory. Sitting 14th on the ladder with a 3-5 record, they’ve been a bit inconsistent this season, but they’re coming off a win and will be hoping to keep the momentum going. Their away form has been decent, with a 2-2 record, but at home they’ve struggled with a 1-3 record. The Swans have had trouble in some key areas, ranking 14th in clearances and 16th in tackling, which has held them back. With just 3 wins on the board, they’ll need to tighten up those areas if they want to climb up the ladder and challenge the Bombers in this matchup.
Stadium Record
Essendon are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Marvel. Sydney are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Swans are 7-3 against the Bombers.
Best Bet
The Bombers only kicked 60 odd pts last week and Sydney's forward line hasn't been great over the last few weeks. So I like the Under, which is 4-1 in the Bombers last 5 games.
Gold Coast Suns (4th) vs Western Bulldogs (6th)
The Suns have had a strong season so far, sitting 4th on the ladder with a 5-2 record. They’re coming off a tough loss to the Lions at the Gabba, where they went down 66-49, but they’ve been solid on the road with a 3-2 record. Touk Miller led the way last game with 29 disposals, but the Suns will be looking to bounce back after that setback. They’ve been one of the best teams for kicking goals, ranked 2nd in the AFL, and they’re also top of the table for inside 50 entries. However, they’ve struggled with disposals, ranking 14th in the league, so that’s an area they’ll need to improve on. At home, they’ve been perfect so far, with a 2-0 record, and with their strong attacking game, they'll be confident heading into the matchup with the Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs are on a roll with a 3-game winning streak, including a massive 90-point victory over Port Adelaide in their last match, where they kicked 20 goals. Their recent form has been impressive, going 3-2 in the last five games and sitting 6th on the ladder with a 5-3 record. They’ve been dominant in several key areas, ranking 2nd in the AFL for clearances, goals kicked, and inside 50 entries, and 3rd for disposals. However, tackling has been a weak spot for them, sitting 17th in the league. At home, they’ve been solid with a 3-2 record, and they’re also unbeaten on the road with a 2-1 record. With their strong midfield and attack, the Bulldogs will be confident as they take on the Suns.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 6-1 at this venue since 2018. The Bulldogs are 0-1 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Bulldogs have won 4 games against the Suns.
Best Bet
The Suns have an impressive record at TIO but the Dogs are in super form. So I like the Over, which is 4-0 at this venue when the Suns are playing here.
Port Adelaide (12th) vs Adelaide Crows (5th)
The Power have had a mixed season so far, sitting in 12th place on the ladder with a 4-4 record. They’re coming off a heavy loss to the Bulldogs at Ballarat, where they were beaten 131-41. Despite struggling to kick goals, ranking 14th in the AFL in that area, they’ve had a solid home record with 3 wins and 1 draw. However, their away form has been shaky, managing just 1 win and 3 losses. In their last game, Willie Rioli kicked 2 goals, but the Power will need to improve in attack if they want to turn their season around. With a 3-2 record in their last five games, they’ll be looking to bounce back and get back to winning ways.
The Crows are sitting pretty in 5th place on the ladder with a 5-3 record, coming off a dominant 60-point win over Carlton at Adelaide Oval, where they kicked 16 goals. They’ve been strong at home, with a 4-1 record, but their away form has been a bit shaky, going 1-2. In their last five games, they’ve gone 2-3. Key players like Rankine, with 29 disposals, and Dawson, who kicked 3 goals in their last game, have been crucial to their success. The Crows are ranked 1st in the AFL for goals kicked and 5th for both clearances and disposals, making them a tough team to beat. With their current form and strong stats, they’ll be aiming to extend their winning streak.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Adelaide are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Power hold a 6-4 record against the Crows.
Best Bet
In the showdown, the home team is 8-1 ATS and that works in the Power's favour. Expect a response from the Power after last week's woeful performance.
Richmond (16th) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)
The Tigers are struggling this season, sitting in 16th place with a 2-6 record, and they've dropped their last two games. In their most recent match, they lost to the Hawks by a hefty margin, 109 to 44, at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. Their away form is particularly concerning, having lost all four away games so far. The Tigers have a number of weaknesses, including ranking 17th in clearances, disposals, and goals kicked, and dead last in inside 50 entries and tackling. With only two wins under their belt this season, they’ll need a major turnaround to get back on track.
The Eagles are in a tough spot, sitting at the bottom of the ladder with a 0-8 record, and they’re currently on an 8-game losing streak. They’re still looking for their first win of the season and have struggled across the board, ranking 18th in clearances, disposals, and goals kicked. They also sit near the bottom for inside 50 entries and tackling. Their most recent loss came against the Demons, where they were beaten by 32 points at Perth Stadium. The Eagles have yet to pick up a win at home or on the road this season, with an 0-4 record in both categories. It’s been a challenging start to the season for the Eagles, and they’ll need a significant improvement to turn things around.
Stadium Record
In their last 5 games at MCG, Richmond holds a 1-4 record. West Coast are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 4-1 against the Eagles in the last 5.
Best Bet
Both sides are struggling so I think kicking goals will be tough and the Under is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 games.
Geelong Cats (7th) vs GWS Giants (8th)
The Cats have had a solid start to the season with a 5-3 record and are currently sitting 7th on the ladder. They’re coming off a narrow 3-point win over Collingwood in Round 8, where they kicked 13 goals at the MCG. While they’ve been strong in certain areas, ranking 1st for tackling and 4th for goals kicked, they’ve struggled a bit with disposals and inside 50 entries. The Cats have been good at home, with a perfect 3-0 record, but they’ve faced more challenges on the road, with a 2-3 record in away games. They’ll be looking to build on their recent win and continue improving as the season progresses.
The Giants are sitting in 8th place on the ladder with a 4-4 record for the season. They’re coming off a tough loss to the Swans at the Sydney Cricket Ground, where they went down by 14 points. They’ve been solid in some areas, particularly disposals, where they’re ranked 1st in the AFL. However, they’ve struggled with consistency lately, with a 2-3 record in their last five games and a 3-game losing streak. At home, they’ve been decent with a 2-1 record, but their away form has been more challenging, sitting at 2-3. Tom Green has been a standout with 34 disposals last game, and Stringer contributed 3 goals. The Giants will need to bounce back and find some form as they face the Cats next.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 4-1 in their last 5 games at Kardinia Park. GWS are 4-1 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Giants are 5-3 against the Cats since 2018.
Best Bet
GWS are struggling at the moment but they actually love playing here, they've covered in their last 4. Geelong could be a bit flat after a huge win on Saturday night too.
Greater Western Sydney +16.5 = $1.90
North Melbourne (17th) vs Brisbane Lions (1st)
The Kangaroos are having a tough season, sitting at 1-7, with their only win coming early on. They’re currently on a six-game losing streak and haven’t been able to grab a win in their last five outings. In their most recent match at Docklands, they lost by just 3 points to the Bombers, finishing 65 to 62. Sheezel had a solid performance with 32 disposals, and Larkey kicked 2 goals, but the Kangaroos are struggling with inside 50 entries, ranking 16th in the AFL in that area. Their home record isn’t much better at 1-3, and they’ve yet to pick up a win away from home, with a 0-4 record. They’ll need to turn things around quickly if they’re to challenge the Lions next.
The Lions are absolutely flying this season, sitting at the top of the ladder with a 7-1 record. They’re on a two-game winning streak and have been dominating at home, boasting a 3-1 record at the Gabba. In their latest win over the Gold Coast Suns, they came out on top by 17 points, kicking 9 goals. Will Ashcroft had a standout performance with 34 disposals, while Cameron and Ah Chee each kicked 3 goals. The Lions are excelling in clearances, ranking 1st in the AFL, and their inside 50 entries are also impressive, sitting 4th. They’ve been perfect on the road so far with a 4-0 away record, and they’ll be confident heading into their next match against the struggling Kangaroos.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue. Brisbane are yet to play here.
Head to Head Record
The Lions are 6-2 against the Kangaroos since 2018.
Best Bet
A 6 goal line is about right and I think with the Roos defensive issues, the Lions should be able to kick away in the end.
" ["post_title"]=> string(29) "2025 AFL Round 9 Betting Tips" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_status"]=> string(7) "publish" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(29) "2025-afl-round-9-betting-tips" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2025-05-07 22:44:03" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-05-07 22:44:03" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(0) ["guid"]=> string(58) "https://bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net/?p=18621" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["post_mime_type"]=> string(0) "" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" } [2]=> object(WP_Post)#5818 (24) { ["ID"]=> int(18604) ["post_author"]=> string(2) "15" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2025-05-03 23:10:02" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-05-03 23:10:02" ["post_content"]=> string(1062) "Free kick Hawthorn!
The Hawks are flying high on the AFL Free Kick Ladder, leading the comp after eight rounds plus Opening Round in 2025.
Home ground advantage hasn’t done much for the non-Victorian clubs. Port, West Coast, Freo, Adelaide, GWS and Sydney all sit in the bottom eight for free kicks.
Free kicks don’t need to be even, but getting the rub of the green can make all the difference in a close one.
Here’s how the ladder looks:
- Hawthorn (+58)
- Carlton (+33)
- Gold Coast (+32)
- Brisbane Lions (+23)
- Essendon (+20)
- Western Bulldogs (+16)
- Melbourne (+15)
- Collingwood (-2)
- Geelong (-3)
- St Kilda (-3)
- Sydney (-4)
- GWS Giants (-7)
- Adelaide (-14)
- Richmond (-21)
- Fremantle (-22)
- North Melbourne (-38)
- West Coast (-40)
- Port Adelaide (-43)
Round 8 begins at Marvel with the Bombers and Roos looking to keep their top 8 hopes alive. But the game of the round waits until last as the Lions battle the Suns in a huge top 4 Q-Clash. Here is a preview of every game this week.
Essendon (12th) vs North Melbourne (17th)
The Bombers are coming off a tough 107-66 loss to the Magpies at the MCG, and they'll be looking to bounce back this week against the Kangaroos. They're sitting 12th on the ladder with a 3-3 record, including a 1-0-1 split at home and 2-0-2 on the road. Recent form shows they're a bit up and down, going 3-0-2 in their last five and currently on a one-game losing streak. Peter Wright chipped in with 2 goals last game, while Zach Merrett was busy with 25 disposals. Stat-wise, the Bombers are one of the top teams for disposals, ranked 2nd in the comp, but they've been struggling when it comes to converting inside 50s and hitting the scoreboard, sitting 14th for goals and 15th for inside 50 entries. They've shown they can win, but they'll need to clean up those forward entries to make a real push up the ladder.
The Kangaroos have had a rough run lately, dropping their last five games and sitting 17th on the ladder with a 1-6 record. Their only win this season came at home, where they're 1-0-3, while they've gone winless on the road at 0-0-3. Last week, they put up a decent fight but still went down 97-88 to the Power at Adelaide Oval. Harry Sheezel led the way with 30 disposals, and Curtis kicked 3 goals, though he'll miss the next few weeks due to suspension. The Roos do rank 4th in the league for disposals, so they can get plenty of the ball, but their biggest issue has been getting it inside 50, where they rank 16th. They'll need to fix that quickly if they want to avoid another long season.
Stadium Record
Essendon are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Marvel. North Melbourne are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Bombers are 10-0 against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
The Roos are giving up 17 goals per game and the Bombers aren't much better at 14. So I like the Over, which is 7-1 in the Roos last 8 games.
Same Game Multi
The Bombers are 11-0 against the Roos so I don't see the trend changing with the Kangaroos defensive issues. Archie Perkins has kicked a goal in 4 of his last 5 games and offers a safe bet for this sgm.
Over 183.5 / Bombers -16.5 / Archie Perkins to kick a goal = $3.80
St Kilda (13th) vs Fremantle (9th)
The Saints have hit a bit of a slump, dropping their last three games and now sitting 13th on the ladder with a 3-4 record. Their most recent outing was a tough 45-point loss to the Lions at Docklands. Despite the result, Jack Higgins managed to snag 3 goals, and Bradley Hill was everywhere with 33 disposals. At home they're 2-0-2, while away they've gone 1-0-2. Over the last five games, they've gone 2-0-3, showing some flashes but struggling to string wins together. One area they need to clean up is their inside 50s, they rank 14th in that department. If they can sharpen up their forward entries, they've got the talent to bounce back against the Dockers.
The Dockers are tracking along nicely with a 4-3 record and sit just outside the top eight in 9th spot. They're coming off a solid 18-point win over the Crows at Perth Stadium, slotting 12 goals in the process. Andrew Brayshaw was massive with 37 disposals, and Serong wasn't far behind with 32 touches. Over their last five, they've gone 4-0-1 and are currently on a one-game winning streak. They've been fairly balanced home and away, going 2-0-1 at home and 2-0-2 on the road. While they've struggled with disposals and tackling, ranking 15th in both, they've still found a way to get wins on the board and will be looking to keep that momentum going against the Saints.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. Fremantle are 5-4 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at Marvel.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Saints hold a 3-2 record against the Dockers.
Best Bet
The Saints don't like Friday night footy, they've lost their last 6. Freo heads to Melbourne with a decent record at Marvel and holds a 4-1 ATS record in their last 5. I think they win it by a goal or two.
Western Bulldogs (8th) vs Port Adelaide (10th)
The Bulldogs are starting to build some momentum, coming off a strong 32-point win over the Giants in Round 7 where they slammed home 17 goals at Manuka Oval. James Harmes was a standout up forward with 4 goals, while Liberatore did the grunt work with 28 disposals. They've now won two on the trot and sit inside the top eight with a 4-3 record. They've gone 2-0-1 away from home and 2-0-2 at home. Over their last five games, they're 3-0-2, showing they're starting to click. The Dogs are one of the best in the comp for clearances, goals kicked, and inside 50s, all ranked 3rd, so they've got the firepower. Tackling remains a weak point, ranking 17th, but if they keep dominating in those key attacking stats, they'll be hard to stop against the Power.
The Power are starting to find some rhythm, coming into this clash with the Bulldogs on a three-game winning streak and a 4-3 record that's got them sitting 10th on the ladder. Last round they got the job done against North Melbourne at Adelaide Oval, winning by 9 points and kicking 14 goals, with Byrne-Jones chipping in with 3 majors. At home they've been solid with a 3-0-1 record, though they've been a bit shakier on the road at 1-0-2. Over their last five, they've gone 3-0-2, showing some consistency lately. They'll need to bring that same energy against a Bulldogs side that's also hitting form, but with momentum on their side, the Power should be right in the mix.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs are 9-3 at this venue since 2018. Port Adelaide are 1-0 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Power are 4-1 against the Bulldogs in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
This one is being played in Ballarat which is a tough place to score, so I think this will be a close one. The Power also have a 4-0 record against the Dogs.
Adelaide Crows (5th) vs Carlton (11th)
The Crows are sitting nicely in 5th spot with a 4-3 record, but they'll be looking to bounce back this week after going down to the Dockers by 18 points at Perth Stadium. Thilthorpe continued his solid form up forward with 3 goals, taking his season tally to 19. They've been strong at home with a 3-0-1 record and are 1-0-2 on the road. Over their last five games, they've gone 2-0-3 and are currently on a one-game losing streak. Offensively, they're firing, ranked 2nd in the AFL for goals kicked, and they bring plenty of pressure too, sitting 4th for tackles. If they can tidy up their consistency, they'll be a real threat against the Blues.
The Blues are starting to hit their stride, coming off three straight wins and sitting just outside the top eight in 11th with a 3-4 record. Last week they knocked off the Cats at the MCG by 18 points, booting 14 goals, with Curnow and McKay both slotting three each, while Sam Walsh racked up 30 disposals. They've gone 3-0-2 in their last five and are 2-0-2 at home and 1-0-2 on the road. Stat-wise, the Blues are elite in a few key areas, ranked 1st for tackles, 2nd for clearances and inside 50s, and 3rd for disposals. With that kind of midfield power and forward firepower, they'll fancy their chances against the Crows this week.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Carlton are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Crows hold a 3-2 record against the Blues.
Best Bet
Carlton have got their forward line firing and come off a huge win over the Cats. I think they keep this margin under 2 goals and potentially get another win.
Collingwood (1st) vs Geelong Cats (7th)
The Magpies are flying right now, sitting on top of the ladder with a 6-1 record and riding a six-game winning streak. They were dominant last round, smashing Essendon by 41 points at the MCG and slotting 16 goals. Jamie Elliott made his 200th game one to remember with 5 goals, while Josh Daicos was everywhere with 36 disposals. They've been unbeatable at home and solid on the road, and their form over the last five games, 5 straight wins, speaks for itself. Stat-wise, they're ranked 5th in the league for clearances, inside 50s, and tackles, showing they bring both pressure and class. Up against the Cats, they'll be full of confidence and hard to stop.
The Cats come into this clash sitting 7th on the ladder with a 4-3 record, but they'll be keen to bounce back after a 94–76 loss to the Blues at the MCG last round. Jeremy Cameron was a standout with 4 goals, keeping his goal-kicking form ticking along nicely. They've been perfect at home, but haven't had the same success on the road, going 1-0-3 away. Over their last five, they've gone 3-0-2 and are currently on a one-game skid. Offensively, they've been strong, ranked 4th in the AFL for goals, and they bring the heat with tackles too, sitting 3rd in that stat. But their ball movement needs work, as they rank 16th for disposals. Up against the top-of-the-table Pies, they'll need to tidy that up to stay in the contest.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 8-2 in their last 10 games at MCG. Geelong are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Cats have won 6 games against the Magpies.
Best Bet
This should be a tough matchup at the MCG and I like the Under trend with the Cats, it's 4-1 in their last 5 games.
West Coast Eagles (18th) vs Melbourne (15th)
The Eagles are having a tough season, still searching for their first win with a 0-7 record and sitting at the bottom of the ladder in 18th place. They were well beaten by the Hawks at Docklands last round, losing by 50 points, despite Liam Ryan's 3 goals and Ryan Maric's 25 disposals. They've now lost seven in a row and have yet to register a win at either home or away. The stats aren't looking pretty either, as they're ranked 18th in the AFL for clearances, disposals, and goals kicked, and 17th for inside 50 entries. They're also struggling with tackling, sitting 14th in that area. Against a strong Demons side, it's hard to see the Eagles turning things around unless they can find a major lift across the board.
The Demons are coming off a solid 20-point win over Richmond at the MCG, kicking 12 goals in the process, and they're starting to find some form with two straight wins. Petracca added 2 goals to his tally, while Christian Salem racked up 34 disposals. However, they've had their struggles this season, sitting 15th on the ladder with a 2-5 record. Their main issues have been in clearances and goal kicking, though they've excelled in disposals, ranking 5th in the league. They're still looking for their first win on the road with a 0-0-2 record away from home, while they've been decent at home. The Eagles will likely be an easy target for the Demons, who are hoping to build on their recent form and put together a run of wins.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 1-9 in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. Melbourne are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Demons are 4-1 against the Eagles in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Dees like this venue, highlighted by their premiership win in 2021. So I think they comfortably beat the struggling Eagles.
Sydney Swans (14th) vs GWS Giants (6th)
The Swans are struggling this season, sitting 14th on the ladder with a 2-5 record and currently on a three-game losing streak. They were beaten by the Suns at Carrara last round, losing 117–79, despite Chad Warner's 2 goals and 24 disposals. Their biggest weaknesses are in goal-kicking, where they're ranked 14th in the AFL, and tackling, sitting 15th in the league. On a positive note, they've been decent away from home with a 2-0-2 record, but they've yet to secure a win at home. With only two wins for the season and some issues to fix, they'll need a big performance against the Giants to turn things around.
The Giants are sitting comfortably in 6th on the ladder with a 4-3 record, though they've hit a bit of a rough patch, losing their last two games. They were beaten by the Bulldogs by 32 points at Manuka Oval, despite Toby Greene's 2 goals and 8 clearances. The Giants have been impressive in disposals, ranking 1st in the AFL in that area, but they do struggle with clearances, sitting 15th in the league. Their home record is solid, and they've been just as good on the road with a 2-0-2 record. The Giants will be looking to bounce back against the Swans after their recent losses and get back on track for a finals push.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at the Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney holds a 5-5 record. GWS are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Swans hold a 7-3 record.
Best Bet
Both sides are coming off a few losses so the Sydney derby should be hotly contested. Ultimately, the Over is 4-1 in this matchup and the small SCG should be nice for scoring.
Hawthorn (4th) vs Richmond (16th)
The Hawks are in great form, sitting 4th on the ladder with a 5-2 record. They won their last game against the Eagles by a massive 50 points at Docklands, kicking 18 goals. The team has been strong across the board, especially in goals kicked and tackling. Jack Gunston was a standout last game with 4 goals, while Josh Battle racked up 29 disposals. Their away record is solid, and they've been perfect at home with a 3-0-0 record. The Hawks will be looking to extend their winning streak and keep pushing for a top spot as they face the Tigers next.
The Tigers have had a tough start to the season, sitting in 16th on the ladder with a 2-5 record. They're coming off a loss to the Demons at the MCG, where they went down 83-63. Despite a strong performance from Tom Lynch, who kicked 3 goals, the Tigers have been struggling across the board. They rank poorly in clearances , disposals , goals kicked , and tackling . Their away record is still winless at 0-0-3, and their last 5 games have seen them win just one. With plenty of work to do, they'll need to improve in these areas if they want to turn things around against the Hawks.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Hawthorn holds an 8-2 record. Richmond are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Tigers have won 3 games against the Hawks.
Best Bet
This should be another percentage booster for the Hawks, they're 8-1 ATS at the MCG and the Tigers haven't played well at this venue of late.
Brisbane Lions (2nd) vs Gold Coast Suns (3rd)
The Lions are in great form this season, sitting 2nd on the ladder with a 6-1 record. They're coming off a strong 45-point win over St Kilda, where they kicked 17 goals at Docklands. The Lions are dominating in a few key areas, ranking 1st in clearances, 5th in goals kicked, and 3rd for inside 50 entries. Their away record is perfect so far at 4-0-0, while they've been solid at home with a 2-0-1 record. Will Ashcroft has been a standout with 35 disposals last game, and Eric Hipwood kicked 4 goals. With a 4-0-1 record in their last 5, the Lions are looking like strong contenders this season.
The Suns have been in red-hot form this season, sitting 3rd on the ladder with a 5-1 record. They're coming off a solid 38-point win over the Swans at Carrara, where they kicked 17 goals. The Suns have been dominating in key areas, ranked 1st in the AFL for both goals kicked and inside 50 entries, and 4th for clearances. They've been impressive on the road with a 3-0-1 record and are also undefeated at home with a 2-0-0 record. Ben King was on fire last game with 5 goals, and Noble had 30 disposals. Despite ranking 14th in disposals, the Suns are still a force to be reckoned with, especially with their strong attack and clearance game.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at the Gabba, Brisbane holds an 8-2 record. Gold Coast are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Lions hold a 9-1 record.
Best Bet
The Q Clash should be the match of the round and I think the Suns can give the Lions a big scare. The Suns are 6-0 ATS when they face a reigning premier and they're playing impressive footy at the moment.
" ["post_title"]=> string(29) "2025 AFL Round 8 Betting Tips" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_status"]=> string(7) "publish" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(29) "2025-afl-round-8-betting-tips" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2025-04-30 09:13:32" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-04-30 09:13:32" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(0) ["guid"]=> string(58) "https://bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net/?p=18564" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["post_mime_type"]=> string(0) "" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" } [4]=> object(WP_Post)#5744 (24) { ["ID"]=> int(18511) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "9" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2025-04-23 23:32:00" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-04-23 23:32:00" ["post_content"]=> string(18164) "ANZAC Day is the highlight of Round 7 as the Pies and Bombers renew their rivalry at the MCG on Friday afternoon.
Melbourne (17th) vs Richmond (15th)
The Demons are coming off a solid 10-point win over Fremantle at the MCG, where they slotted 16 goals, including a standout 5-goal performance from Kossy Pickett. That victory snapped a rough run, with the team now on a one-game winning streak after losing their previous four. It's been a tough season overall, sitting 17th on the ladder with a 1-5 record. They haven't managed a win in away games yet (0-0-2), and their home form hasn't been much better at 1-0-3. The Demons have had real issues with clearances, goal-kicking, and tackling — ranking near the bottom of the league in all three areas. They'll be looking to build some momentum this week against the Tigers.
The Tigers are coming off an 11-point win over the Suns at Docklands, where they put through 12 goals. Tim Taranto was everywhere with 35 touches, leading the way in a much-needed win that snapped a four-game losing streak. They're now sitting 15th on the ladder with a 2-4 record, and while they've managed a couple of wins at home (2-0-2), they're still winless on the road (0-0-2). Like their opponents this week, the Tigers have had plenty of struggles — ranked near the bottom of the league for clearances, disposals, goals kicked, inside 50s, and tackles. They'll need to tidy up across the board if they want to keep the wins coming against the Demons.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 4-6 in their last 10 games at MCG. Richmond are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Demons hold a 5-0 record against the Tigers.
Best Bet
Both sides are coming off a win but scoring hasn't been easy for either team, so I like the Under trend in this matchup at night, the Under is 8-0.
Collingwood (1st) vs Essendon (11th)
The Magpies are flying right now, sitting on top of the ladder after a dominant 52-point win over the Lions at the Gabba, where they booted 16 goals. Nick Daicos was everywhere with 38 disposals, while Daniel McStay chipped in with 3 goals. That win made it five on the trot for the Pies, who now boast a 5-1 record overall. They've been perfect at home (3-0) and solid on the road too (2-0-1). They're one of the best in the league when it comes to inside 50s and tackling — ranked 5th in both categories — so they're bringing the pressure and getting plenty of looks up forward. They'll head into their clash with the Bombers full of confidence.
The Bombers are quietly building some momentum, now on a three-game winning streak after just edging out the Eagles by 2 points in Perth, where they kicked 11 goals. Peter Wright was a standout up forward with 6 majors, while Zac Merrett and Nic Martin both racked up 26 disposals. They're sitting 11th on the ladder with a 3-2 record, and have been solid both home (1-0-1) and away (2-0-1). Stat-wise, they're elite when it comes to clearances (ranked 5th) and lead the league in disposals, but they've struggled to make it count on the scoreboard and going inside 50, ranked 14th in both categories. Facing the top-of-the-table Magpies, they'll need to clean up those forward entries to stay competitive.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 7-3 in their last 10 games at MCG. Essendon are 4-5 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Magpies hold a 5-4 (1 draw) record against the Bombers.
Best Bet
Should be a cracker on Friday as both sides are playing good footy and hopefully, it will be high scoring as the Bombers are 5-0 against the Over in day games at the MCG.
Same Game Multi
It's usually a close contest in this matchup as the margin has fallen under 15 pts in 5 of the last 6 meetings. So I like the Bombers to cover.
Over 159.5 / Essendon +25.5 = $3.40
Fremantle (9th) vs Adelaide Crows (5th)
The Dockers are sitting just outside the top eight in 9th with a 3-3 record after going down to the Demons by 10 points at the MCG last round. Andy Brayshaw was a standout with 33 touches, but it wasn't quite enough to get them over the line. They've been a bit up and down, splitting their last five games 3-2, and their home (1-0-1) and away (2-0-2) form has been fairly balanced. The Dockers have had some issues around the contest, struggling with clearances, disposals, and tackles, all ranking in the bottom half of the league. That said, they've been efficient when they do get forward, sitting 5th in the comp for goals kicked. They'll be looking to bounce back this week against the Crows.
The Crows are sitting nicely in 5th spot with a 4-2 record and are coming off an 18-point win over the Giants at Adelaide Oval, where they kicked 7 goals. Taylor Walker chipped in with 2 majors in that one, and the team is now on a one-game winning streak. They've been strong at home (3-0-1) and solid on the road (1-0-1), and the stats back up their form — ranked top three in the league for clearances, disposals, and inside 50s, plus they're leading the comp for goals kicked. It's clear they know how to move the footy and make it count. Heading into their clash with the Dockers, the Crows are looking like one of the more well-rounded sides in the comp.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 6-3 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. Adelaide are 2-4 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Dockers are 4-1 against the Crows in the last 5.
Best Bet
The Crows were at their defensive best last week and hopefully, they bring that to WA. Freo are 8-1 against the Under in Friday night games so I'm going with the trend.
St Kilda (12th) vs Brisbane Lions (2nd)
The Saints have hit a bit of a rough patch, coming off back-to-back losses, including a heavy 71-point defeat to the Bulldogs at Docklands where they only managed 56 points. Higgins and Owens were the bright spots, each kicking 3 goals, but it was a tough day overall. They're now sitting 12th on the ladder with a 3-3 record. At home, they've been decent (2-0-1), but away from home it's been a mixed bag (1-0-2). One area that's been letting them down is their inside 50 count — they're ranked 15th in the league, which shows they're struggling to generate enough scoring opportunities. They'll need to lift across the board to challenge the Lions this week.
The Lions are sitting pretty in 2nd spot on the ladder with a 5-1 record, despite a tough 52-point loss to the Magpies at the Gabba last round. Hipwood snagged a couple of goals and Lachie Neale gathered 25 touches, but it just wasn't their day. That snapped a four-game winning streak, but overall, they've been impressive this season — especially on the road where they're unbeaten (3-0). They're ranked 2nd in the comp for clearances and 5th for goals kicked, so they're strong around the contest and know how to hit the scoreboard. Back at it this week against the Saints, the Lions will be keen to bounce straight back.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Marvel. Brisbane are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Lions are 8-2 against the Saints since 2018.
Best Bet
Good conditions under the roof should see a free-flowing game and the Over is now 5-1 in the Saints last 6.
Port Adelaide (10th) vs North Melbourne (16th)
The Power are starting to find a bit of form, now on a two-game winning streak after knocking off the Swans by 8 points at the SCG, where they slotted 13 goals. Rioli and Georgiades both chipped in with 3 majors each, helping lift them to a 3-3 record for the season. They're currently sitting 10th on the ladder and have looked solid at home (2-0-1), while their away form has been a bit patchy (1-0-2). Stat-wise, they're strong with the footy in hand — ranked 5th in disposals — but they've had some issues at the contest, sitting low in both clearances and tackles. Up against the Kangaroos this week, the Power will be looking to keep the momentum going.
The Kangaroos are doing it tough right now, sitting 16th on the ladder with just one win from six games and coming off a brutal 82-point loss to the Blues at Docklands. Harry Sheezel was one of the few bright spots with 32 touches, and Luke Parker chipped in with 2 goals and will celebrate his 300th game this week. They're on a four-game losing streak and haven't won away from home yet (0-0-2). While they're ranked 4th in the league for disposals, they're really struggling to make it count on the scoreboard, especially with inside 50 entries where they sit 16th. Up against the Power, the Roos will need a massive lift to turn things around.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. North Melbourne are 0-7 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Power hold a 5-0 record against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
The Roos are giving up points like no tomorrow again and the Power should feast. I like the Over as it has saluted in the Roos last 4 interstate games.
GWS Giants (4th) vs Western Bulldogs (8th)
The Giants are sitting comfortably in 4th place on the ladder with a 4-2 record, despite a tough loss to the Crows last round at Adelaide Oval, where they went down 52-34. Lachie Whitfield had a standout performance with 39 disposals, but the team just couldn't get over the line. They've been strong overall, with a solid 3-0-2 record in their last five games and perfect at home (2-0-0). The Giants excel in disposals (ranked 2nd in the league) and tackling (ranked 4th), so they're usually dominant around the ball. Up against the Bulldogs, they'll be looking to bounce back and keep pushing for a top spot.
The Bulldogs are coming off a massive 71-point win over the Saints at Docklands, where they kicked 18 goals. Aaron Naughton was on fire with 3 goals, and despite a knee injury to Luke Darcy (luckily not an ACL), Marcus Bontempelli returned to form with 30 disposals and 2 goals. They're currently sitting 8th on the ladder with a 3-3 record and have been solid both at home (2-0-2) and away (1-0-1). The Dogs excel in going forward, ranked 4th in both goals kicked and inside 50 entries, so they've got plenty of attacking power. They'll be looking to build on their recent win and take down the Giants this week.
Stadium Record
GWS are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. The Bulldogs are 2-1 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Bulldogs have won 8 games against the Giants.
Best Bet
The Dogs looked impressive last week and got the Bont back in the lineup. They also love playing the Giants, having won 7 of the last 8 by a 1-39 margin. This could be an upset.
Western Bulldogs +11.5 = $1.90
Gold Coast Suns (3rd) vs Sydney Swans (14th)
The Suns are having a great season so far, sitting 3rd on the ladder with a 4-1 record, despite a close 80-69 loss to the Tigers at Docklands last round. Ben Long was a standout with 3 goals, and both Touk Miller and Noah Anderson racked up over 30 disposals. They've been strong on the road (3-0-1) and solid at home (1-0-0), and they're excelling in key areas — ranked 1st for inside 50 entries, 2nd for goals kicked, and 3rd for clearances. The Suns are looking to bounce back after their first loss of the season and keep their momentum going against the Swans.
The Swans are struggling this season with a 2-4 record, currently sitting in 14th place on the ladder. They're coming off a tight 8-point loss to the Power at the SCG, where Aaron Francis scored 3 goals as the sub, and Matty Roberts racked up 30 disposals across halfback. Their form at home has been tough, still searching for their first win there (0-0-3), while they've been better on the road with a 2-0-1 record. They're on a two-game losing streak and have been struggling with disposals (14th in the league) and goals kicked (15th). They'll need to improve in these areas if they want to turn things around against the Suns.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue. Sydney are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Swans are 4-1 against the Suns in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
If the Swans figure out their forward line issues, they should be able to cover against a side that just lost against Richmond. Sydney have a good record on the Goldy too.
Carlton (13th) vs Geelong Cats (6th)
The Blues are sitting in 13th place on the ladder with a 2-4 record, but they're on a two-game winning streak after a huge 82-point win over North Melbourne, where they kicked 24 goals at Docklands. Zac Williams and Charlie Curnow both kicked 4 goals, while George Hewett had 34 disposals. At home, they've been inconsistent, with a 1-0-2 record, but they've had better luck away, also with a 1-0-2 record. Despite their struggles, the Blues excel in some key areas, ranked 1st in the AFL for clearances and tackling, and 2nd for inside 50 entries. They'll be hoping to continue their winning form as they face the Cats.
The Cats are in strong form with a 4-2 record and a 3-game winning streak, most recently beating Hawthorn by 7 points at the MCG, kicking 12 goals. Patrick Dangerfield led the way with 3 goals, while Bailey Smith added 28 disposals. Their record at home is perfect so far (3-0-0), but they've struggled a bit away (1-0-2). They sit 6th on the ladder and are excelling in key areas, ranked 3rd in the AFL for goals kicked and 2nd for tackling. However, they do have issues with disposals, sitting 16th in that stat. The Cats will look to continue their winning streak when they face the Blues.
Stadium Record
In their last 5 games at MCG, Carlton holds a 0-5 record. Geelong are 5-5 in their last 10 games at MCG.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Cats have won 3 games against the Blues.
Best Bet
The Blues have thrashed the Eagles and Roos as expected, but they'll find it much tougher against the Cats. So I'm going back to the low scoring trend, the Under is 6-0 in the Blues last 6 home games.
Hawthorn (7th) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)
The Hawks have had a solid season so far with a 4-2 record, but they're coming off two straight losses, most recently falling to the Cats by just 7 points at the MCG. They've been strong at home with a perfect 2-0-0 record, but have been a bit more mixed away (2-0-2). They're ranked 3rd in the AFL for tackling, which is one of their standout stats. In their last game, Mabior Chol and Jack Gunston both kicked 3 goals, while Karl Amon racked up 29 disposals and 7 inside 50s. Sitting 7th on the ladder, they'll be looking to bounce back and get back to winning ways against the Eagles.
The Eagles are back at the bottom of the ladder this season with a 0-6 record, and they're currently on a 6-game losing streak. They've yet to win a home or away game, sitting at the bottom of the ladder in 18th place. They've had issues across the board, ranking near the bottom in clearances, disposals, goals kicked, inside 50 entries, and tackling. In their last game, they came close but lost by just 2 points to the Bombers at Perth Stadium. Elijah Hewett showed some promise with 22 disposals and 2 goals, while Jake Waterman kicked 4 goals in the first quarter, but it wasn't enough to get the win. With no wins so far, they'll be looking to turn things around against the Hawks.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Marvel. West Coast are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Hawks are 3-2 against the Eagles in the last 5.
Best Bet
After a few losses, the Hawks will be desperate to play well and I think they'll do it easily against a woeful Eagles defence. Hawthorn are 6-0 ATS when they face a bottom 4 side too.
" ["post_title"]=> string(29) "2025 AFL Round 7 Betting Tips" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_status"]=> string(7) "publish" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(29) "2025-afl-round-7-betting-tips" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2025-04-23 23:32:00" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-04-23 23:32:00" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(0) ["guid"]=> string(58) "https://bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net/?p=18511" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["post_mime_type"]=> string(0) "" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" } [5]=> object(WP_Post)#5792 (24) { ["ID"]=> int(18483) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "9" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2025-04-17 05:15:33" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-04-17 05:15:33" ["post_content"]=> string(21520) "2025 AFL Round 6 Betting Predictions
Round 6 of the AFL season kicks off with an Easter tradition as the Lions host the Magpies at the Gabba on Thursday night footy.
Brisbane Lions (1st) vs Collingwood (4th)
The Lions head into their Round 6 showdown against the Magpies in red-hot form, sitting comfortably on top of the ladder with a flawless 5-0 record. Their most recent outing was an impressive 21-point win over the Western Bulldogs at Norwood Oval, where they piled on 18 goals. Eric Hipwood starred up forward with five majors, while Hugh McCluggage racked up 32 disposals to control the midfield. Their perfect 3-0 away record shows they can deliver outside of their home fortress too. Despite their dominance, there are a few cracks statistically. The Lions rank 16th in both disposals and tackles, and sit 14th for inside 50s — a surprising trend for an otherwise clinical outfit. Still, on a five-game winning streak and with finals footy clearly on the horizon, they’ll be tough to stop.
The Magpies are flying high with four straight wins under their belt and a strong 4-1 record heading into Round 6. Fresh off a convincing 31-point victory over the Swans at Adelaide Oval, Collingwood showed their scoring power with 16 goals, led by a dominant performance from Nick Daicos who collected 34 disposals. Currently sitting 4th on the ladder, the Pies have built their season on defensive strength, conceding just 343 points — one of the best in the competition. With a blockbuster against the ladder-leading Lions on the horizon, the Magpies will be out to make a serious statement.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 9-1 in their last 10 games at Gabba. Collingwood are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The head-to-head has is tied at 6-6 since 2018.
Best Bet
I think this will be a close contest, hopefully like the 2023 GF when the two sides were separated by just 4 pts. The Pies are coming off a good win over Sydney and have a 7-0 ATS when they face a team that just won the premiership.
Same Game Multi
Jamie Elliott will play game 200 and I think he can hit the scoreboard. The Under is 6-0 in the Lions last 6 home games.
Collingwood +10.5 / Under 175.5 pts / Jamie Elliott Anytime Goalscorer = $4.30
North Melbourne (15th) vs Carlton (14th)
It’s been a tough stretch for the Kangaroos, who come into Round 6 on a three-game losing streak and sitting 15th on the ladder with a 1-4 record. Their latest outing was a 52-point loss to the Suns at Barossa Park, where despite the margin, Caleb Daniel put in a solid individual performance with 32 disposals. Offensively, North Melbourne has struggled to generate enough scoreboard pressure, managing 441 points for the season while conceding a whopping 551 — the highest in the league. While their away form remains winless, they’ll hope a return to familiar surroundings helps steady the ship. One clear strength for the Roos is their ball-winning ability. They rank 3rd in the AFL for disposals, indicating they can find the footy — but turning that possession into effective inside 50 entries remains an issue, with the team ranked 16th in that area.
The Blues finally snapped their losing streak in emphatic fashion, crushing the West Coast Eagles by 71 points at Adelaide Oval. They piled on 17 goals, with Corey Durdin slotting four and George Hewett starring through the middle with a game-high 39 disposals. Now 14th on the ladder with a 1-4 record, Carlton will be desperate to build on the momentum as they take on fellow battlers North Melbourne. Despite their low ladder position, the Blues have some standout strengths — they rank 2nd in the AFL for clearances, inside 50s, and tackles, showcasing their ability to win the ball and apply pressure. However, turning that dominance into scoreboard reward remains a problem. Carlton ranks just 14th for goals kicked, which has cost them in tight contests. Their away form hasn’t delivered either, with two losses on the road so far this season.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 3-7 in their last 10 games at Marvel. Carlton are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Blues are 4-1 against the Kangaroos in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Under is a great trend with the Blues playing - it's 11-0. Hopefully, the Roos come to play.
West Coast Eagles (18th) vs Essendon (13th)
It’s been a nightmare start to the season for the Eagles, who remain winless after five rounds and sit anchored to the bottom of the ladder. Their most recent performance was a heavy 71-point defeat at the hands of the Blues, managing just 50 points while conceding 121 at Adelaide Oval. With a 0-5 record and the worst percentage in the competition, West Coast has struggled at both ends of the ground — scoring a league-low 293 points while giving up 589. Their weaknesses are widespread, ranking last in clearances, disposals, and goals kicked, and near the bottom for tackles and inside 50s. Neither home nor away form has offered much relief, and the Eagles are now on a five-game losing streak, desperate to find a spark and show signs of improvement.
The Bombers are beginning to hit their stride after a strong 39-point win over Melbourne in Round 5, where they booted 15 goals at Adelaide Oval to claim back-to-back victories. Now sitting 13th on the ladder with a 2-2 record and a game in hand, Essendon will be eyeing a third straight win as they take on a winless West Coast outfit. Statistically, the Bombers are one of the league’s strongest midfield units. They rank 1st in the AFL for disposals, 4th for clearances, and 5th for tackles — showcasing a well-rounded engine room that’s driving their recent form. Essendon has won once on the road this season, and they'll head into this matchup with plenty of confidence. Against the bottom-ranked Eagles, this presents a golden opportunity to boost percentage and continue their push toward finals contention.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 2-8 in their last 10 games at this venue. Essendon are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Bombers have won 6 games against the Eagles.
Best Bet
The Eagles are leaking points again and the Over is 5-1 in their last 6 at Optus.
Melbourne (17th) vs Fremantle (8th)
It’s been a brutal start to 2025 for the Demons, who are still searching for their first win after five straight losses. Sitting 17th on the ladder, Melbourne’s most recent outing was a 39-point defeat at the hands of the Bombers at Adelaide Oval, leaving them winless both at home and on the road. With just 305 points scored this season and 503 conceded, the Demons have struggled to find their rhythm at both ends of the ground. Their weaknesses are clear — they rank 16th in the AFL for clearances, 17th for goals kicked, and 15th for tackles.
The Dockers are on a roll, surging into Round 6 on a three-game winning streak and sitting 8th on the ladder with a 3-2 record. Their Round 5 performance was arguably their best yet — a dominant 61-point win over Richmond at Barossa Park, where they kicked 16 goals, including a career-best six from Josh Treacy. Fremantle’s rise has been driven by forward half pressure and attacking efficiency, with the Dockers ranked 4th in the AFL for inside 50s. With a 2-1 away record and plenty of confidence, the Dockers will head into this matchup as heavy favourites against a winless Melbourne side. It’s the kind of game Fremantle needs to win — and win well — to keep building momentum and separate themselves from the mid-table pack.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 0-5 in their last 5 games at this venue. Fremantle are 4-6 in their last 10 games at MCG.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Dockers have won 4 games against the Demons.
Best Bet
Hard to get any confidence about the Dees so the Dockers to get the job done. They're 8-0 ATS against the Demons and Melbourne has lost 8 straight in Victoria.
Adelaide Crows (7th) vs GWS Giants (3rd)
Despite sitting 7th on the ladder with a 3-2 record, the Crows are in a mini-slump after dropping their last two games — most recently falling to the Cats by 19 points at Adelaide Oval. Darcy Fogarty was a bright spot up forward with four goals, while Brodie Smith racked up 35 disposals, but it wasn’t enough to stop the slide. Adelaide’s strength lies in its attacking flair and midfield depth. They’re ranked 1st in the AFL for goals kicked and sit inside the top three for clearances, disposals, and inside 50s — a clear sign they know how to win the ball and hit the scoreboard.
The Giants are flying high in 2025, sitting third on the ladder with a 4-1 record after a strong 28-point win over St Kilda in Round 5. They kicked 16 goals in that match — led by Toby Greene’s five — while Lachie Ash continued his strong form with 33 disposals. GWS have been one of the most balanced teams in the competition. They’re ranked 4th in goals kicked. Their midfield continues to get the job done, ranking 5th for disposals, and their pressure has been top-tier, sitting 4th for tackles. With a perfect 2-0 record at home and two wins on the road already, the Giants have proven they can win anywhere. They’ll now face a Crows outfit coming off two straight losses but boasting one of the most potent attacks in the comp.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 5-5 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. GWS are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Giants are 4-1 against the Crows in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
This should be a high-scoring affair with two in-form forward lines on show. The Over is also 7-1 in the Crows last 8 home games.
Richmond (16th) vs Gold Coast Suns (2nd)
The Tigers are in the midst of a four-game losing streak after a heavy 61-point loss to the Dockers at Barossa Park in Round 5. Sitting 16th on the ladder with just one win from five matches, Richmond’s season is in desperate need of a turnaround. The team’s struggles are evident across the board, ranking 15th for disposals, 16th for goals kicked, 17th for inside 50 entries, and 18th for tackling — a clear indication that they’re being beaten to the ball and struggling to apply consistent pressure. Richmond will be looking to bounce back in front of their home crowd, where they have a 1-2 record so far this season. With key players like Jack Hopper showing individual form, the Tigers need a collective effort to dig themselves out of their slump.
The Suns have been one of the standout teams of 2025, sitting 2nd on the ladder with a perfect 4-0 record. Their dominant 52-point win over North Melbourne in Round 5 saw them kick a massive 21 goals, including five from Ben King, as they continued to showcase their impressive attacking power. Gold Coast has been sensational in the midfield, ranked 1st in the AFL for clearances and inside 50 entries, while also sitting 2nd for goals kicked. They’ve been able to move the ball quickly and efficiently. Defensively, the Suns have been just as impressive, conceding only 290 points, making them one of the toughest sides to score against. With a flawless away record, the Suns will travel to Melbourne as clear favourites against a Tigers team struggling to find form.
Stadium Record
Richmond are 0-9 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at Marvel. Gold Coast are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Suns have won 5 games against the Tigers.
Best Bet
The Suns are on fire and I think they'll enjoy playing at Marvel. The Tigers do not like it here, they've lost their last 6 and they're also 0-6 ATS when they face the Suns.
Sydney Swans (10th) vs Port Adelaide (11th)
The Swans will be looking to rebound after a tough 31-point loss to the Magpies in Round 5. Sitting 10th on the ladder with a 2-3 record, Sydney has shown promise but will need to tighten up in key areas to become a finals contender. Their offensive output has been relatively strong, but defensively they’ve conceded 408 points — indicating they’ve been vulnerable at times. The Swans’ struggles in clearances and disposals have been key factors in their inconsistency, often failing to get first use of the ball and control the tempo of the game. These issues will need to be addressed against the Power, who have the tools to capitalize on such weaknesses. Despite their struggles, the Swans have been solid on the road, with a 2-0-1 away record, showing that they are capable of challenging teams in unfamiliar territory. With a home record of 0-2 so far, they’ll need to improve their form on home turf.
Port Adelaide will look to build on their recent 30-point victory over Hawthorn in Round 5 as they aim to find more consistency in a season that’s been up and down. With a 2-3 record and sitting 11th on the ladder, the Power have shown flashes of brilliance but have struggled to put together a sustained run of good form. The Power's strengths are in their disposal efficiency, and they’ve shown an ability to move the ball well through the midfield, with Zak Butters leading the charge. However, their tackling efforts have been a weak point, ranking 14th in the AFL. They’ll need to apply more pressure on the ball carrier to keep the Swans in check and ensure they don’t get easy entry into their forward line. Port Adelaide has been solid at home with a 2-0-1 record, but their struggles on the road will need to be addressed, especially in a competitive match like this one against the Swans
Stadium Record
Sydney are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Port Adelaide are 2-1 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Power are 7-1 against the Swans.
Best Bet
Port were impressive against the Hawks last week and I think they head to Sydney with a lot of confidence. The Swans have plenty of experience on the sideline too. Port are 4-1 as an underdog in this matchup.
Western Bulldogs (12th) vs St Kilda (9th)
The Bulldogs will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak when they face the Saints in Round 6. After a tough 21-point loss to the Lions at Norwood Oval, they are now 2-3 on the season and sitting 12th on the ladder. With 444 points scored and 463 conceded, the Bulldogs have shown they can compete, but their defensive struggles have been apparent, particularly in high-pressure moments. With a solid home record of 1-0-2, the Bulldogs will be hoping to regain their form on their home ground. However, they’ll need to tighten their defence and improve their consistency if they are to take down a Saints team that has proven capable of turning the game in their favour. While the Bulldogs' attacking line has been potent, they have struggled to convert their dominance into consistent victories. Their midfield strength will need to shine, and they’ll need to limit the Saints' impact on the scoreboard to turn their season around.
The Saints will be aiming to bounce back from a 28-point loss to the Giants in Round 5 when they face the Bulldogs in a crucial match. Sitting 9th on the ladder with a 3-2 record, the Saints have shown plenty of promise this season but need to recover from their recent dip in form. They’ll be keen to regain their winning ways, especially after a narrow defeat at Norwood Oval. The Saints have been impressive in key areas, ranking 5th in the AFL for clearances and goals kicked, while also boasting a solid 1-0-1 away record. However, they’ll need to improve their defensive efficiency after conceding 461 points this season. Their ability to win clearances and capitalize on their forward pressure will be key in overcoming a Bulldogs team that’s been solid in attack. With a good record at home, the Saints will want to come out strong and assert their dominance in this matchup to stay competitive in the top half of the ladder. This game will be important for maintaining momentum and ensuring they don’t slip further down the standings.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Marvel. St Kilda are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Bulldogs hold a 3-2 record against the Saints.
Best Bet
The trend is the Over with the Saints, it's 4-1 in their last 5 and the Dogs are leaking pts too.
Geelong Cats (6th) vs Hawthorn (5th)
The Cats will be looking to extend their winning streak to three games when they face the Hawks in Round 6. After a hard-fought 19-point victory over the Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval, the Cats are now 3-2 on the season and sitting 6th on the ladder. With 503 points scored and 383 conceded, they’ve shown a potent attack and a solid defence. One of the standout features of the Cats' game has been their tackling, as they rank 1st in the AFL for this key stat. With players like P. Dangerfield and J. Cameron firing, the Cats’ forward line will be a significant threat to the Hawks’ defence. They also excel in goals kicked, ranking 3rd in the AFL, making them a dynamic and hard-to-stop team when they hit their stride. With a solid home record of 2-0-0, the Cats will be confident heading into this matchup. However, they will need to maintain their focus and intensity, as the Hawks are always capable of turning up the heat, especially when underdogs. The Cats' key strengths in clearances, tackling, and scoring should give them the edge, but they’ll need to make sure they avoid complacency and play a complete game to take the victory.
The Hawks will be eager to bounce back after a tough 30-point loss to the Power in Round 5, as they prepare to face the Cats in Round 6. Despite the setback, the Hawks have been impressive this season with a 4-1 record and are currently sitting 5th on the ladder. Their attacking prowess is evident, having scored 454 points so far, while their defence has been solid with 406 points against. The Hawks’ strength lies in their inside 50 entries, where they rank 5th in the AFL, and their tackling, where they rank 3rd. This high-pressure game style will be crucial when they take on a Cats team known for its strong tackling and potent forward line. J. Gunston, who kicked 6 goals in their last game, will be key in leading the Hawks’ attack against a Cats defence that is tough to break. With a perfect home record of 2-0-0, the Hawks will be confident of turning their fortunes around at home and aiming to maintain their strong position on the ladder. Their combination of clean inside entries and aggressive tackling could help them neutralize the Cats’ strengths, but they’ll need to sharpen their attack and finish strong to get the better of a well-rounded Cats team.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. In their last 5 games at MCG, Hawthorn holds a 5-0 record.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Cats hold a 6-4 record.
Best Bet
The Hawks should bounce back at the MCG but the Cats won't be easy, especially with Danger kicking goals. So I like the Over on Easter Monday, it's 7-0 when the Cats are at the MCG.
" ["post_title"]=> string(36) "2025 AFL Round 6 Betting Predictions" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_status"]=> string(7) "publish" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(36) "2025-afl-round-6-betting-predictions" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2025-04-17 05:15:33" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-04-17 05:15:33" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(0) ["guid"]=> string(58) "https://bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net/?p=18483" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["post_mime_type"]=> string(0) "" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" } [6]=> object(WP_Post)#5746 (24) { ["ID"]=> int(18450) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "9" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2025-04-09 07:37:18" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-04-09 07:37:18" ["post_content"]=> string(13932) "2025 AFL Round 5 Betting Predictions
Gather round is back for another year and we have an excellent weekend ahead of us in Adelaide. It starts with a top 8 clash as the Crows host the Cats on Thursday night at the Adelaide Oval.
Adelaide Crows (5th) vs Geelong Cats (8th)
The Crows have been ticking off a few old hoodoos lately as they push for a return to finals footy for the first time since 2017, but there’s still that lingering issue when it comes to playing Geelong. Adelaide has only beaten the Cats once in their last eight matchups. That said, they’ll be fired up after a controversial loss last week and will be looking to kick off Gather Round with a big response.
Geelong's had a bit of a shaky start to the year, but their comfortable win over Melbourne showed they’re not far off clicking into gear. A clash with a red-hot Adelaide side will be a great test to see where they’re really at. And playing at Adelaide Oval won’t worry them too much—they’ve won five of their last six there.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Geelong are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Cats are 4-1 against the Crows in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Gather Round should kick off with a quality and high-scoring contest between the Crows and Cats. Geelong are 6-0 against the Over at the Adelaide Oval and Adelaide are easily the highest-scoring team in the AFL this season.
Same Game Multi
Thilthorpe has kicked 3+ goals in 5 straight games, highlighted by a bag of 5 last week. Cameron has kicked a goal in every game this year and I think he'll stand up on Thursday. Dawson comes off 31 touches and has hit the 25 mark in 4 of his last 5 games. Patrick Dangerfield has recorded 16+ disposals in each of his 13 games against Adelaide - his former team.
Collingwood Magpies (6th) vs Sydney Swans (9th)
Collingwood isn’t letting any concerns about being the oldest team on average in AFL history slow them down. With three straight wins, they’re looking like they’ll be back in the top four mix again this year. While they don’t travel as much as some teams, the Magpies have shown they thrive on the road and won’t be worried about taking on the Swans at a venue where they’ve won their last nine games.
Sydney has turned its season around with two solid wins in a row, and the Swans were especially impressive in their huge victory over North Melbourne, with their fast-paced, slingshot game firing again. They’ll face a tougher challenge this week, but they can take confidence from their recent record against Collingwood, having won five of their last six meetings.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 8-1 at this venue since 2018. Sydney are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Swans are 6-3 against the Magpies since 2018.
Best Bet
The Under is 5-1 in the Pies last 6 and I think both sides will find it tough to kick a massive score.
North Melbourne Kangaroos (13th) vs Gold Coast Suns (3rd)
North Melbourne took a big step backward after failing to live up to the growing expectations, suffering a tough loss to a Sydney team missing some key players. While the Kangaroos have added some experience to go with their young stars, they still need to prove they can bounce back from tough losses and consistently challenge top teams like the Suns, who are rapidly on the rise.
Gold Coast is on a roll, aiming for four straight wins to start the season, which would be a first in the club’s history, and they’re setting up a strong case for their first-ever finals appearance. Even though the Suns have had a rough recent record against North Melbourne, with two losses in their last three matchups, their revamped team is looking good and they’ll be hoping to keep climbing up the ladder.
Stadium Record
Both sides haven't played here.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Suns are 6-4 against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 interstate games and their away winning woes from last season seem to have disappeared. So I think they rack up a big win over the Roos, who were disappointing last week.
Carlton Blues (16th) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)
Carlton is already facing the reality of another tough season after four straight losses, but now they've got a golden chance to get things back on track against the winless West Coast. While the Blues won’t be taking anything for granted, especially after their surprise loss to the Tigers, they have a strong record against the Eagles, winning the last four matchups by an average of 77 points.
West Coast lost some of the momentum they had built up recently after being outclassed by Greater Western Sydney, leaving the Eagles with even more worries both on and off the field. It was their fourth straight loss, but they had shown some hope in previous games with more competitive performances, and now they’ll be looking to take advantage of the pressure mounting on the Blues.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. West Coast are 3-7 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval.
Head to Head Record
The Blues are 4-1 against the Eagles in the last 5.
Best Bet
This feels like a game where the Blues can unleash a bit of frustration but I'm not sure about their forward line at the moment. Take the Uuder, which is 10-0 in the Blues last 10. Each of Carlton's last 10 matches have gone UNDER the total match points line.
Western Bulldogs (10th) vs Brisbane Lions (2nd)
The Western Bulldogs can’t be too upset with their even win-loss record given the injury crisis they’re dealing with, but they would’ve been frustrated by their loss to Fremantle. They pushed the Dockers all the way, just like they did in their earlier loss to the Pies, but now they need to stay in touch with the top teams while they wait for some reinforcements to arrive.
Brisbane has quietly made a statement with an undefeated start to the season, even though they haven’t yet hit the same high levels that took them to the premiership last year. The Lions know from last year’s slow start that early form doesn’t always define the season, but they won’t mind chasing a 5-0 start to the season for the first time in the club’s history.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 1-0 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Bulldogs are 5-4 against the Lions.
Best Bet
The Dogs have been good despite a long injury list but I think the Lions are locked in, having won 9 on the trot. They would love to make it 10 in a row.
Melbourne Demons (17th) vs Essendon Bombers (14th)
Melbourne kicked off the season with a strong effort, narrowly losing to Greater Western Sydney, but things have since gone downhill with three more losses and a growing injury list. The Demons are struggling with familiar problems, particularly a forward line that just isn’t clicking, leaving them ranked 17th for points scored. To make matters worse, they’re also last for clearances per game, adding to their growing list of issues.
Essendon managed to head into the bye on a high after pulling off a big win over Port Adelaide, coming from behind to score the last four goals of the game. The Bombers must have enjoyed the spotlight on other teams almost as much as their own victory, but now they’ll need to be ready for a tough match against another side fighting to turn their season around.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Essendon are 5-5 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval.
Head to Head Record
The Demons are 5-2 against the Bombers since 2018.
Best Bet
Both sides aren't in the best form so I like the chances of a low scoring affair under lights. The Under is also 4-0 in the Bombers last 4 interstate matches.
Richmond Tigers (15th) vs Fremantle Dockers (11th)
Richmond always knew this season would be a bit of a rollercoaster with a young squad, but they’d be happy with the glimpses of a better future, even after last week’s loss to Brisbane. The Tigers managed to give the reigning champions a run for their money, with their young stars shining and the midfield putting up a solid fight. The next step for them is to be consistently competitive, especially against a Fremantle team that’s starting to hit its stride.
Fremantle has shaken off a slow start to the season and is starting to find its rhythm, even though injuries are still a concern. The Dockers set up their win over the Bulldogs with a six-goal run just before halftime, showing off a more attacking style of play. This shift could be just what they need to take advantage of a Richmond side that’s still learning the ropes.
Stadium Record
Head to Head Record
The Dockers are 3-1 (1 draw) against the Tigers in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Should be good conditions for footy and the Tigers have been leaking pts. So I like the Over, which is 7-0 when the Dockers are playing interstate.
St Kilda Saints (7th) vs Greater Western Sydney Giants (4th)
St Kilda is quickly proving it’s not just a surprise anymore and is becoming one of the most exciting teams in the competition, averaging 107 points per game over its three consecutive wins. The Saints managed to shake off a rough record at Adelaide Oval to defeat Port Adelaide and now have a chance to make their week in the city of churches even better with a win over another finals contender.
Greater Western Sydney had little trouble in their dominant win over an injury-hit West Coast, and what’s even more concerning for the competition is that their 'Orange Tsunami' game is starting to click. The Giants still have a multi-faceted attack that hasn’t quite hit full gear yet but could really test St Kilda’s defence, which is known for being dangerous when it transitions from defence to attack.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 1-0 at this venue since 2018. Greater Western Sydney are 1-0 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The head-to-head is tied at 4-4 (1 draw) since 2018.
Best Bet
I think the Saints are playing great footy and get the benefit of playing in Adelaide back-to-back. They've also covered in 5 of their last 6 against the Giants.
Port Adelaide Power (12th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (1st)
Port Adelaide is in danger of watching its finals hopes slip away after two disappointing losses to teams that didn’t make the top eight last year. But the Power still have a big chance to turn things around at Gather Round with a statement win over the high-flying Hawks, a team they famously beat in a classic final just six games ago.
Hawthorn has been hit with the news that Will Day will be out for a while, but the rest of the team has had a chance to freshen up after a bye week. The Hawks have already dealt with key injuries during their undefeated start to the season and showed in last year’s finals that they can still push the Power, even without their star midfielder.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval, Port Adelaide holds a 6-4 record. Hawthorn are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Power hold a 4-1 record against the Hawks.
Best Bet
The Power have been struggling this year and I think the Hawks will want to get some revenge after their finals exit at this venue last season. Hawthorn are 9-2 ATS in interstate games too.
" ["post_title"]=> string(36) "2025 AFL Round 5 Betting Predictions" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_status"]=> string(7) "publish" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(36) "2025-afl-round-5-betting-predictions" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2025-04-09 07:37:18" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-04-09 07:37:18" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(0) ["guid"]=> string(58) "https://bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net/?p=18450" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["post_mime_type"]=> string(0) "" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" } [7]=> object(WP_Post)#5778 (24) { ["ID"]=> int(18436) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "9" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2025-04-02 22:28:41" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2025-04-02 22:28:41" ["post_content"]=> string(12020) "Old rivals Collingwood and Carlton kick off Round 4 at the MCG on Thursday night footy. Can the Blues avoid a 0-4 start or will the Pies continue their winning ways? Here is a preview of all the AFL Round 4 action.
Collingwood Magpies (6th) vs Carlton Blues (16th)
Collingwood’s season has been a bit of a rollercoaster, but they went into the bye with a winning record after edging out the Western Bulldogs in a thriller. They’ve got a great chance to keep that momentum going and put even more pressure on Carlton, especially since they’ve had the upper hand in this rivalry, winning 10 of their last 12 clashes.
Carlton is in serious danger of slipping out of finals contention before their season even gets going, making this showdown with Collingwood a must-win. The Blues have struggled after halftime, getting outscored by a combined 89 points in their three games so far. If they don’t finish stronger this week, they could be staring at a brutal 0-4 start — a far cry from the 4-0 record they had at this stage last season.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are looking for a 7th straight win at the MCG. Carlton are 1-4 at the MCG in their last 5.
Head to Head Record
The Magpies are 10-2 against the Blues since 2018.
Best Bet
The Under has saluted in the Blues last 9 games as they struggle to hit the scoreboard so I think the trend keeps on going this Thursday night as the Pies defence has been strong.
Same Game Multi
The Blues should be desperate for a win and I think they can get within 2 goals. Charlie Curnow is back from injury, Kemp kicked 5 last week and Cripps has a good record against the Pies. Last season, the margin in both games between the two sides was 3 and 6 pts as well. Daicos comes off 39 disposals and I don't think the Blues will be able to stop him getting 30+ touches.
Under 168.5 / Carlton +12.5 / Daicos 30+ = $5.50
Geelong Cats (9th) vs Melbourne Demons (17th)
Geelong has had a tough reminder of how fine the margins can be, with two close losses knocking them out of the top eight and back into the chasing pack. But they’ll be happy to return to their home turf, especially against a Melbourne side they’ve dominated at this venue—winning 22 of their last 25 meetings here.
Melbourne came into the season looking for a quick return to finals contention, but instead, they’re fighting to prove their premiership window isn’t shutting. Back-to-back shock losses to teams that finished in the bottom six last year have put them in a tough spot, and they’ll need a massive turnaround to avoid their first 0-4 start since 2012.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Kardinia Park. Melbourne are 1-4 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Demons are 3-2 against the Cats in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Over is 7-1 in this matchup when the Cats are at home and the Dees have been giving up plenty of points.
Gold Coast Suns (4th) vs Adelaide Crows (2nd)
Gold Coast is set for one of its biggest games yet, taking on Adelaide in a clash between two teams on the rise. Both sides are looking to jump from outside the eight last year into the top four, and the Suns have already made a statement with two dominant wins. Another victory here would not only keep the momentum going but also mark just the second time in their 15 seasons they’ve started 3-0.
Adelaide’s rebuild is finally paying off, but few expected their rise to be this explosive. The Crows have won all three games so far—and done it in style, averaging 53-point victories while winning every quarter. Another big performance here would not only cement their hot start but could also see them snatch top spot from the Hawks.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Carrara. Adelaide are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Suns hold a 3-2 record against the Crows.
Best Bet
Both sides are looking impressive so I think the Over looks the best bet between these two. The Over is also 9-0 in the Crows last 9-day games.
Richmond Tigers (15th) vs Brisbane Lions (3rd)
Richmond’s round-one excitement feels like a distant memory after back-to-back heavy losses, averaging a 77-point margin. The Tigers have already had a couple of reality checks, and now they face an even bigger challenge against the reigning premiers. At this point, the focus might be less on winning and more on damage control while giving their young players a chance to learn from the best.
Brisbane has absolutely dominated Richmond in their last two meetings, winning by an average of 100 points, so another blowout wouldn’t be a shock. Despite starting their premiership defence with three straight wins, the Lions have somehow flown under the radar. But with momentum building, they’re looking more dangerous by the week—bad news for the Tigers as they take on last year’s wooden spooners.
Stadium Record
Richmond are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue. Brisbane are 3-2 in their last 5 games at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head-to-head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
The Tigers have been smashed in the last 2 weeks and they usually struggle in day games, going 0-12 ATS. The Lions head to the MCG for the first time since winning the GF and I think they'll get a big win.
North Melbourne Kangaroos (10th) vs Sydney Swans (11th)
North Melbourne put up a solid fight against a red-hot Adelaide last week before the Crows pulled away late in the third quarter. But the Kangaroos showed enough to prove their big win over Melbourne wasn’t just a one-off. Now, they’re back on their home turf for a tough challenge against Sydney—a team they’ve only beaten once since 2015.
Sydney has been living on the edge, playing in back-to-back thrillers—falling just short against Brisbane before edging out Fremantle. With a bye in between, the Swans will be hoping that win sparks some momentum, but they know just how tight the competition is as they look to keep pace with the early frontrunners.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 3-3 in their last 6 games at Marvel. Sydney are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Swans are 8-1 against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
I think the Roos matchup well against Sydney and there's no Gulden/Mills for the Swans. But I also like the Over under the roof, it's saluted in the last 5 meetings.
GWS Giants (5th) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)
GWS had the perfect chance to make a statement last week after a hot start with the breeze against Hawthorn, but they couldn’t hold on and ended up getting overrun. They’ll have to wait for another shot to prove they’re genuine contenders this season, but first, they need to take care of business and avoid a costly slip-up against a desperate Eagles side still chasing its first win.
West Coast might be 0-3, but they’ve shown some positive signs, regularly coming out firing before fading as the game goes on. The challenge now is staying in the contest for longer and finding a way to break through for that elusive first win under new coach Andrew McQualter.
Stadium Record
GWS are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. West Coast are 3-4 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Giants hold a 3-2 record against the Eagles.
Best Bet
The Eagles played well in their first interstate game of the season at the Gabba so that gives them some hope of catching up with the Giants here. The Eagles are 7-1 ATS when they play a top-8 side too.
Port Adelaide Power (12th) vs St Kilda Saints (7th)
Port Adelaide started the season with big ambitions of making a Grand Final push under Ken Hinkley, but things haven’t gone to plan. A win over Richmond was sandwiched between two concerning losses, and they’ll be eager to turn things around. The good news? They’ve dominated St Kilda in recent years, winning 14 of their last 15 matchups.
St Kilda wasn’t expected to be a serious contender this season, but they’ve surprised plenty by cracking into the top eight. A shock win over Geelong followed by a dominant performance against Richmond has them full of confidence. But they’ll get a real test this week against a fired-up Port side—especially given their struggles at Adelaide Oval, where they’ve won just three times in 19 attempts.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. St Kilda are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Power are 8-1 against the Saints since 2018.
Best Bet
The Saints are playing good footy and I give them a good chance of upsetting the Power in Adelaide. The away side has a 10-1 ATS record in this matchup too.
Fremantle Dockers (13th) vs Western Bulldogs (8th)
Fremantle got things back on track with a big win over rival West Coast, but the real test is whether they can match it with the top teams. One positive sign was hitting triple figures on the scoreboard, showing they’re starting to add some attacking flair rather than relying solely on their defence and strong midfield.
The Western Bulldogs have fought their way into the top eight with back-to-back wins, even with key players like captain Marcus Bontempelli sidelined. A win over Fremantle would be another big step toward locking in a finals spot, but just as important is the experience they’re giving their young guns while still banking wins.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 5-4 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. The Bulldogs are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Bulldogs are 6-4 against the Dockers.
Best Bet
Despite injuries to key players, the Doggies are playing a tough brand of footy. Freo has lost 4 of their last 5 as a favourite and I think they'll find the Dogs tough to put away.
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