Our best bet for Thursday's NRL Round 25 clash between the Melbourne Storm and Penrith Panthers is the Over 43.5 / Jenkins to Score / Fa'alogo to Score Same Game Multi at $5.40, with Melbourne's last three games all exceeding 43.5 points and both wingers overdue for a try after scoreless recent outings.
An intriguing clash kicks off Round 25 of the NRL this Thursday, with the Storm hosting the Panthers at AAMI Park in Melbourne.
Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers
The Panthers have lost back-to-back top-of-the-table clashes, and will be desperate to stop the rot and firm up their claim on a top-two spot.
Melbourne, on the other hand, need three straight wins and plenty of help to scrape their way into the top eight. They come into this round off the back of a much-needed win over the Sea Eagles, prior to which they'd lost three straight.
Leg 1 - Over 43.5 Points Total
The line is set nice and low for this clash, courtesy of historically tight matches between the Storm and Panthers.
However, Melbourne's last three outings have all exceeded this mark, as have 67% of their matches this season.
While Penrith are tracking at just under 50% of their matches crossing 43.5 points total, circumstances conspire to promise a high scoring game here.
The Storm are desperate to pull off a late charge into the finals, and the Panthers will be eager to wrestle back momentum for their season too.
Leg 2 - Thomas Jenkins to Score
Jenkins has been kept scoreless in Penrith's two recent losses, but don't expect the Panthers' winger to stay off the scoreboard this week.
He has 28 tries from 21 matches in 2026, only once failing to score in three consecutive games.
Expect him to find space down what has been an uncharacteristically leaky Melbourne edge this season.
Leg 3 - Sualauvi Fa'alogo to Score
One of the Storm's bright lights this season has been Fa'alogo, who has looked brilliant even when those around him have underperformed.
The fullback is a key cog in Melbourne's attacking engine, and equally has the kind of x-factor that can conjure up a try against the run of play.
With 16 tries for the season and one in each of his last three games, Fa'alogo should feature for the home side yet again on Thursday.
Same Game Multi
Over 43.5 / Jenkins to Score / Fa'alogo to Score = $5.40
Value Bet
Melbourne have a mathematical chance of making the top eight still, but that goes up in smoke if they lose this one.
They're a club who have been a regular fixture in finals footy over the past two decades, so writing them off against an old foe who have lost two on the bounce feels dangerous.
At $4.50, the four-time champs are good value to pull off an upset here.
