Dreamtime at the ‘G has produced some iconic contests over the years, but this edition shapes a little differently with Essendon and Richmond currently sitting 17th and 18th on the ladder.
Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers
The pre-game festivities should once again deliver an incredible atmosphere at the MCG, even if the football itself may not reach the same heights.
Richmond are battling significant injury issues and only just managed to field a full squad, while Essendon also enter the clash with just one win to their name in 2026.
On paper, the Bombers should probably win, but the stronger value appears to sit within the player and game markets rather than trying to predict the result outright.
Leg 1 - Under 172.5 Total Points
Everything points toward a lower-scoring contest.
The last four meetings between these clubs have all gone under the total points line, averaging just 130.8 points per game.
Last season, in a similarly scrappy matchup between the sides, the game produced only 83 total points.
Essendon’s recent night games at the MCG have also trended heavily toward the under, with four of their last five finishing below the line.
Meanwhile, 14 of Richmond’s last 16 matches at the MCG have also gone under.
Leg 2 - Jaxon Prior 15+ Disposals
Essendon are likely to adopt a slower, possession-heavy style similar to what they used against Melbourne earlier this season.
That game style suits Jaxon Prior perfectly across half-back.
Prior is averaging 16.4 disposals per game this season and has recorded 15+ disposals in six of his last eight matches.
Against Melbourne, he finished with 17 disposals and 10 marks while playing a key role in Essendon’s controlled ball movement.
With Ben McKay returning to handle more defensive responsibility, Prior should be freed up to intercept and distribute.
Leg 3 - Sullivan Robey 1+ Goals
Sullivan Robey has been one of the few bright spots in a difficult season for Essendon supporters.
The young forward kicked two goals against Fremantle last week and looks capable of a genuine breakout performance against an undermanned Richmond defence.
Robey was a prolific scorer during the back half of last year in the Coates Talent League and has now kicked at least one goal in three of his last five AFL appearances.
This matchup gives him every chance to continue that run.
Leg 4 - Jack Ross 20+ Disposals
Jack Ross has quietly become Richmond’s most reliable midfielder throughout 2026.
He’s averaging 23.5 disposals per game this season and has reached 20+ disposals in eight of his 10 matches, including each of his last five.
Across that five-game stretch, Ross is averaging an impressive 26.2 disposals.
Essendon are conceding the second most disposals in the AFL this season, particularly to opposition midfielders, which sets this matchup up nicely for Ross once again.
Same Game Multi
Under 172.5 Total Points / Prior 15+ Disposals / Robey 1+ Goals / Ross 20+ Disposals = $5.60
