Can the Spurs cause another upset in Game 2 after stealing a wild double-overtime thriller to open the Western Conference Finals?
San Antonio Spurs vs OKC Thunder
Game 1 between the Spurs and Thunder delivered one of the best playoff games of the season, with San Antonio holding on in double overtime on the road.
Now the pressure shifts to Oklahoma City.
The Thunder must make major adjustments, particularly around generating cleaner offensive looks for MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, while the Spurs face the challenge of managing heavy minutes after several starters pushed beyond 44 minutes in the opener.
Leg 1 - Thunder
Expect a strong response from Oklahoma City after dropping Game 1 at home.
The Thunder should have taken plenty away from the double-overtime loss, and historically these spots tend to favour the higher seed bouncing back hard in Game 2.
San Antonio leaned heavily on their starters in the opener, with five players logging at least 44 minutes.
Teams that steal an early road win in a playoff series will often subtly prioritise Game 3 at home, especially after a physically draining opener like this.
Oklahoma City should come out with far greater urgency and intensity here.
Leg 2 - Chet Holmgren Under 13.5 Points
The Thunder can bounce back without needing a big scoring game from Chet Holmgren.
Victor Wembanyama remains an extremely difficult matchup for Holmgren due to his ability to contest perimeter shots while still protecting the paint.
Across five meetings with San Antonio this season, Holmgren is averaging just 10 points per game.
He has also failed to clear 13.5 points in four straight games against the Spurs, missing double figures in three of those contests.
Unless Oklahoma City drastically changes his role offensively, this still looks like a difficult matchup for him to score efficiently.
Leg 3 - Jalen Williams 15+ Points
Jalen Williams looked like Oklahoma City’s most reliable offensive option in Game 1.
Fresh off a hamstring injury, Williams moved freely and finished with 26 points, consistently attacking gaps in San Antonio’s defence.
While Alex Caruso also had an explosive offensive game, it feels much more sustainable for Williams to maintain this scoring output moving forward.
Williams has scored 15+ points in 16 of his last 20 games, including seven of his last eight.
He should once again play a major role offensively in Game 2.
Same Game Multi
Thunder / Holmgren Under 13.5 Points / Jalen Williams 15+ Points = $3.60
Value Bet
Keldon Johnson could quietly benefit from the physical toll Game 1 placed on San Antonio’s starters.
Johnson played 22 minutes in the opener and there’s a strong chance those minutes increase slightly in Game 2 as the Spurs try to preserve energy for Games 3 and 4 back in San Antonio.
He knocked down three triples in Game 1 and has historically enjoyed this matchup against Oklahoma City.
Johnson also made four threes in the Spurs’ previous meeting with OKC, while earlier this season he had another game where he buried five triples against them.
With defensive attention focused heavily on Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle, Johnson should continue getting quality catch-and-shoot looks from deep.
