American Ben Shelton is looking like a genuine threat at this Australian Open, while reigning champion Madison Keys faces a blockbuster all-American clash with the red-hot Jessica Pegula.
LEG 1 - Ben Shelton
Ben Shelton was super impressive against Vacherot in his third-round encounter, and I just can’t see how Casper Ruud beats the American here.
Ruud does own the head-to-head, including a hard-court win at Acapulco the last time they met, but that was two years ago.
Shelton is now inside the top ten in the world and continues to perform on the big stage, particularly at the Australian Open. Since July last year, the American is 11-3 on hard courts against players ranked between 11 and 50. He gets this done.
LEG 2 - Madison Keys To Win A Set
Jessica Pegula has been outstanding so far, dropping just ten games across her three matches.
That said, Madison Keys is a very different proposition to Pegula’s previous opponents. Last year’s champion hasn’t been as dominant early, but she’s still yet to drop a set on her way to the fourth round.
Keys beat Pegula in last year’s Adelaide final and owns a 2-1 head-to-head record over her compatriot, including a dominant US Open win in 2023, the only time they’ve met at a major.
Pegula is 3-7 against top-10 opposition on hard courts over the past 12 months, dropping at least one set in nine of those ten matches. If Keys loses this, it’s in three.
LEG 3 - Musetti vs Fritz Over 3.5 Sets
I wasn’t overly impressed with Taylor Fritz’s performance against Stan Wawrinka. While the circumstances were emotional with Stan’s Australian Open farewell, he’s still 40 years old and playing in 40-degree heat.
I’ve been far more impressed with Musetti’s run so far through a tougher draw featuring Collignon, Sonego and Machac.
Their head-to-head sits at 3-3, but it’s the Italian who has won three of the last four meetings, including a five-set Wimbledon thriller in 2024. This shapes as another tight one.
LEG 4 - Amanda Anisimova
With Sabalenka and Swiatek both looking slightly vulnerable, Anisimova can sense a major opportunity.
The American is 12-2 on hard courts over the past 52 weeks against players ranked between 21 and 50. While Xin Yu Wang is dangerous, she’s just 1-7 against top-10 opposition on hard courts across her career.
