The two best teams in the AFC battle each other on Monday morning with the #1 seeded Broncos looking to advance to the Super Bowl when they face the surging Patriots. Here are my NFL SGM tips for this one!
New England Patriots (14-3) at Denver Broncos (14-3)
The Pats roll into Denver on a hot streak - winning 5 straight games. In the playoffs, their defence has been relentless after a 16-3 win over the Chargers and 28-16 over the Texans last week. In cold and snowy conditions last game, the Pats defence rattled Stroud for 4 interceptions and 5 turnovers overall. Expect more of the same when they take on former Patriot and backup QB Jarrett Stidham.
On offence, Drake Maye has struggled with turnovers throughout the playoffs, but he still managed 3 passing touchdowns last week in tough conditions. Highlighted by a one hand catch by Kayshon Boutte to basically seal the win. Maye will need to control his turnovers in Denver and it will be another tough challenge on the road this time. They've played both playoff games in Foxborough, so the trip to Mile High will be a lot different.
After a bye week as the #1 seed, the Broncos came out at home and survived an epic battle with the Bills in OT - winning 33-30. But the win was soured by a season-ending injury to starting QB Bo Nix. He played well against the Bills, tossing 3 touchdowns and leading the team in rushing. So they'll rely on QB Jarrett Stidham to get the job done in the biggest game of his career thus far.
Overall, Denver have been really tough to beat at home this season, losing just 1 game in 9 home games. But like the Pats, their defence is a key strength. They allow just 18 points per game and took away 2 interceptions and 3 forced fumbles against Buffalo. New England has struggled with giving up turnovers, so the Denver defence will be bringing the pressure.
Leg #1 - Denver Broncos +5.5
Sure, Denver will miss Bo Nix but I think their defence is good enough to keep this game close throughout the AFC Championship. They're also 9-1 at home and have won 14 of their last 15 games. As an underdog, they've covered in 4 of their last 5. New England haven't played on the road in the playoffs yet and Drake Maye hasn't looked great when the pressure is on in the pocket.
Leg #2 - Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Stevenson is built for the playoffs, and while he hasn't enjoyed success in TD's, this could be the week. Last week, Stevenson carried the ball 16 times for 70 yards and averaged 4.4 yds per carry.
Leg #3 - Courtland Sutton 45+ Receiving Yards
Stidham will likely lean on Sutton as his favourite target. He comes off 53 yards against the Bills and has gone over 45+ yards in 3 of his last 5 games.
Same Game Multi
Value Leg - Stefon Diggs Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Diggs had 6 targets last week and that resulted in 4 catches, 40 yards and a TD. Denver's defence gave up 3 passing touchdowns last week and 2 of those were to wide receivers.
