It’s the best day on the NBA regular season calendar: Christmas Day. We preview all five games, starting with the Cavs and Knicks, with same game multis and value bets for each matchup.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks
The Cavs may have recorded an easy win over the Pelicans a couple of games back, but they’ve been underwhelming this season, struggling to get their best lineup on the floor, with Evan Mobley doubtful for this Christmas Day clash against the Knicks.
New York will be disappointed with their loss to the Timberwolves, but returning home and getting Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby back should have a major impact.
Karl-Anthony Towns was huge against the Timberwolves in Brunson’s absence, posting 40 points and 13 rebounds. Cleveland have conceded rebounds to centres at a rate 16% above league average over the last month, so he should be in line for another big game.
Mikal Bridges has also been a consistent performer for the Knicks this season, averaging 17.9 points across his last 11 games and hitting 15+ in eight of those.
SAME GAME MULTI
Knicks / Towns Double Double / Bridges 15+ Points = $3.30
VALUE BET
Mitchell Robinson 10+ Rebounds @ $2.70
San Antonio Spurs @ OKC Thunder
This is quickly becoming one of the NBA’s most entertaining rivalries, with San Antonio the only team that currently seems to have OKC’s measure.
The Spurs knocked the Thunder out of the NBA Cup and backed it up on Wednesday with a 20-point win over a full-strength OKC outfit.
Stephon Castle continues to impress in his second year, averaging 20.1 points since returning from injury and hitting 15+ points in all eight of those games.
Isaiah Hartenstein is also back from injury for the Thunder and logged solid minutes in OKC’s loss to the Spurs, pulling in 12 rebounds. He’s averaging 10.6 rebounds per game this season.
SAME GAME MULTI
Spurs +10.5 / Castle 15+ Points / Hartenstein 8+ Rebounds = $3.50
VALUE BET
Stephon Castle 20+ Points @ $2.80
Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors
The Mavericks appear to have turned a corner in December following the return of Anthony Davis, while Cooper Flagg has exploded of late.
Dallas is 6-3 with Davis in December, while concerns continue to mount for Golden State. Jimmy Butler hasn’t set the world on fire, and the decline of Draymond Green has been sharp. Remarkably, Green owns the worst net rating of any NBA player in December who has played at least five games at 20+ minutes.
The Mavericks can pinch this on Golden State’s home floor, but one thing in the Warriors’ favour is their elite defence against centres. Over the last month, they’ve restricted centres to scoring 36% below average. Expect Dallas’ offence to come from sources outside of Davis.
SAME GAME MULTI
Mavericks +8.5 / Davis Under 25.5 Points / Davis 10+ Rebounds = $5.25
VALUE BET
Houston Rockets @ LA Lakers
The Lakers have come back down to earth in December, currently owning the third-worst net rating in the NBA for the month, marginally better than the Kings and Wizards.
Luka appears set to return for LA, but he’ll be met by the defensive backcourt of Amen Thompson and Josh Okogie.
Jabari Smith Jr has put together a quietly strong run, averaging 16.5 points and 7.1 rebounds across his last 15 games and covering his 20.5 PR line in six of his last seven.
Kevin Durant has recorded 4+ assists in seven of his last 11 games, with the Lakers conceding assists to small forwards at a rate 15% above average over the last month. Amen Thompson is also averaging 18.3 points over his last 14 games, hitting 15+ in five of his last six.
SAME GAME MULTI
Smith Over 20.5 PR / Durant 4+ Assists / Thompson 15+ Points = $4.00
VALUE BET
Jabari Smith Jr Double Double @ $6
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Saved the best for last on Christmas Day. The Nuggets continue to be a force led by Nikola Jokic, while Jamal Murray is producing a career-best season. The Timberwolves, however, have built a reputation as giant killers, often playing their best basketball in big games.
Although Rudy Gobert is renowned as one of the league’s elite defensive bigs, the Timberwolves have conceded the second-most points to centres over the past month, which is music to Jokic’s ears.
Ironically, the Nuggets have also been the easiest team for centres to score against over this same period, so Gobert could have an offensive impact as well.
With Cam Johnson joining Braun and Gordon on the sidelines, Peyton Watson has suddenly emerged as Denver’s third scoring option. He’s averaging 14.6 points across his last 14 games, hitting double figures in 10 of those.
SAME GAME MULTI
Jokic 30+ Points / Gobert 10+ Points / Watson 10+ Points = $4.33
VALUE BET
