In a slow NBA week hijacked by NBA Cup Quarter Finals, we finally get a strong slate of games with seven on Saturday. The Hawks will look to upstage the Eastern Conference–leading Pistons in Detroit, while there won’t be a dull moment when the Timberwolves head to Golden State.
Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons
The Pistons keep rolling with a 19-5 record and a clean bill of health, going 11-deep with more capable players waiting at the end of the bench for their chance.
As for the Hawks, they’re the complete opposite. Without Trae and Porzingis, their depth is really being tested and although their starting group is still strong, there’s not much else they can turn to.
That being said, when the Hawks are on they’re very capable of causing an upset led by Jalen Johnson.
LEG 1 - Jalen Duren Under 18.5 Points
Surprisingly, Atlanta is the most difficult team in the NBA for centres to score against, restricting bigs to 22% below average — likely due to their length across multiple positions — so this doesn’t bode well for Jalen Duren.
The Pistons centre stormed into Most Improved calculations early in the season, but he has slowed down in a big way. He’s averaging just 15.4 points over the last seven games, covering 18.5 points only once. When Detroit is at full strength, Duren’s season average drops from 18.8 points to 16.4 points, with just a 20% coverage rate.
LEG 2 - Jalen Johnson Over 23.5 Points
No Trae and Porzingis means Jalen Johnson goes crazy.
Johnson has played eight games without the pair, and his numbers explode in every category — especially scoring.
He averages 29.8 points per game from those eight games and has hit 25+ points in all eight. Should see another monster outing from the athletic forward.
LEG 3 - Tobias Harris 10+ Points
Not overly flashy, but Tobias Harris is reliably someone who will score double digits each game.
Harris has hit this in 86% of his games this season, and on the two occasions he missed, he finished on 9 points.
Even with a potential minutes hit due to Detroit’s depth, Harris should still find his 10.
SAME GAME MULTI
Duren Under 18.5 Points / Johnson Over 23.5 Points / Harris 10+ Points = $4.00
VALUE BET
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 5+ 3PM @ $4.30
When Trae and Porzingis are missing, Alexander-Walker has also benefited alongside Johnson, averaging 24.1 points per game.
NAW is averaging 3.3 triples from those nine games, but his recent form is even more impressive — hitting 5+ in three of his last five.
This includes knocking down 6 last time Atlanta faced the Pistons, finishing with 26 points, so there’s no reason why he can’t catch fire again.
